Arsenal - Wigan

There’re plenty of questions which team Wenger will field for this game. Against Spurs and Newcastle, he named stronger squad than usual for a Cup game. Personally, I don’t have a problem with that. Any Arsenal’s eleven are pretty strong entity. Fabregas is injured. Chamakh will be rested, but there’s Bendtner (although I don’t like to base a bet on him). Arshavin, Wilshere and Rosicky, all should appear from the start. Arsenals haven’t won anything for five years (my honest opinion they’ll blow up in Premier, once again) and this could be a golden opportunity to lift the trophy.

Oppositely from Wenger, Martinez has plenty of reasons for a decent headache. Injury list consists some of his key players and space for rotation is not so big. He announces a possibility to give a chance to some youngsters. Believe him or don’t.  After great run of results they entered a crisis and defeat at West Ham was their fourth consecutive on the road and Wigan dropped into dangerous zone. Despite they knocked Arsenal at semi-final 2006, they have seven consecutive defeats on their soil. Adding on that Wigan has a label of really poor travellers and this is less important Cup, I have no reason to believe Martinez carries a serious hope for this encounter. Stoke at home should be more important concern.

I think we won’t see any surprise here. Gunners’ talent and desire for proving themselves should be too much for Wigan. Home win and handicap for me.

Bet: Arsenal -2ah
Odd: 2.26 188bet
Stake: 7/10

I'm curious about Huddersfield. Maybe a bet, but little later.

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Weekend's results

My betting weekend in one sentence. Barnsley and Chelsea were extremely unlucky to not book the three points, Berbatov went insane, Norwich were great, Everton disgusting.

Barnsley - Watford 0-0  1/2 LOST
Man Utd - Blackburn 7-1 WON
Everton - WBA 1-4 LOST
Norwich - Ipswich 4-1 WON
.....................................................Newcastle - Chelsea 1-1 LOST

Updated statistic and list of bets.
Still deep in red.

Maybe one bet, little later.

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Bets for Sunday

No time for writing analyzes, just picks.

Premier League, Newcastle - Chelsea
Bet: Chelsea -0.75
Odd: 2.02 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

Championship, Norwich - Ipswich 
Bet: Norwich -0.25
Odd: 1.88 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Everton - WBA

Everton continue with annoying results in Premier. They’re without win in last four (three draws), have just two home wins of seven and sitting on very low for them 14th place. However, their performances look much better than results and I’m sure it’s a matter of time when they’ll start with the climbing on the table. The biggest problem recently is the lack of attacking support for Tim Cahill (scored five goals in his last eight games). Arteta and Pienaar work fine delivering from midfield, but Everton miss efficiency of the strikers. This should be a nice chance for Saha, Beckford and recovered Anichebe to recover the old shape. Moyes will miss only Fellaini who serves the last game of his suspension.

The Baggies are in free fall recently and currently I can’t see anything that could stop it. Four defeats and a draw in last five encounters caused they slipped from the 4th place (if my memory is right) to more expected 16th. They’ve kept only one clean sheet so far allowing at least two goals in four of their five previous games. Considering team quality, they’re probably worst in Premier (alongside Blackpool). First season syndrome and probably great motivation skills by Di Matteo caused an excellent run of results. Now WBA will hardly find something to boost their morale and they’ll face a hard fight for avoiding relegation. Their key man, Chris Brunt, is probably out with a groin problem. Morrison and Reid are also doubts for the game.

Despite Everton’s latest results, they should be superior here and this is a very nice opportunity for the start of a good run. Goodison is always a tough place to go. Home win for me.

Bet: Everton -1ah
Odd: 2.00 Bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Manchester United - Blackburn

United are not impressive whole season due to six draws of seven away games. But since other top teams wasted too much of points, they have same number as first placed Chelsea. At Old Trafford, they’re always impressive. Six wins and only one draw (famous 2-2 vs. WBA), with 17-5 goal difference. They’ve also stabilized the defence line, keeping five clean sheets in last seven competitive games. They have scored at least twice in 12 of last 14 games and won last five home games against Rovers (four of them were with 2 or more goals margin). Fletcher and Scholes are doubts, Rio and Vidic are rested and return into contention.

Rovers look in a good shape as they won three of last four Premier games (Wigan and Villa at home and Newcastle away). However, some facts will be against them today at Trafford. First, under Allardyce, Blackburn are very poor travellers (this season 2W-1D-4L, previous 3W-5D-11L, season before that 4W-4D-11L). Second, they’re physically very strong, like when ball is in the air and set pieces are their strength. But have plenty of problems against the top teams, to cope with their technique. Also, tradition shouldn’t be overlooked. They haven’t won Utd in last nine occasions (losing seven of that).

There’re some signs Utd are moving into higher gear.  Maybe it’s my instinct more than clear facts, but I think this will be easier than most of the people expect. Odds are better than usual. Correct score 2-0, 3-0.

Bet: Man Utd -1.5
Odd: 2.00 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

Probably one more bet. 
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Barnsley - Watford

Will try to be short as it’s possible. The Tykes are in a great run with three consecutive wins, Preston and Ipswich (both away) and in last round won over Pompey at home. At Oakwell, their form is generally good (as always), five wins, two draws and two defeats. Barnsley won last four home games against Watford. Today will be without suspended midfielder, Nathan Doyle.

Before the start of the season, I predicted Watford will be one of the teams that will fight for avoiding relegation. Surprisingly good results launched them into the top half of the table, but lately they’re losing the breath. They’re winless in six league games and have noticed four away defeats in a row. At Oakwell, won just once in past 16 years. Skipper, John Eustace, has served his suspension and returns into contention.

Team morale will be opposite. With home ground and slight difference in quality, it should be enough of advantage for the home side. I expect a tough game (goals are likely), but home win at the end.

 

Bet: Barnsley -0.25
Odd: 2.10 various
Stake: 8/10

More to follow... 
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Wednesday's result

Walter Smith somehow found 5 defenders (despite Papac was unfit) and United spent a century to score. But they did and return my money.

Statistic is updated, but won't be published until it becomes green. I don't like to look at it right now.
See it here.

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Glasgow Rangers - Manchester United

My break did last more than I planned, since a got some nasty cold. A little bit annoyed for missing Hudders last night. However, rest is over…

Rangers are in an interesting position. With 5 points, they need to match Valencia’s result tonight (or to make better) and then in the last round to beat Bursa and cheer for United against Spanish side. On the other hand, they have almost secured spot for Europa League since Bursa can hardly show some hidden, top class quality and won both games. Walter Smith has plenty of problems with his back line. Beside they’re leaking goals recently (five in last three league games), injury list causes a serious headache to him. Regular defenders Bougherra and Webster are sidelined (as well as defensive midfielder Edu), while Sasa Papac is in serious doubt. Smith likes to play 5-4-1 formation, but if Papac is unfit he’d be with only four fit defenders. Striker Kyle Lafferty is also missing.

United are in very good position, as one point would guarantee 2^nd spot. However, if somehow lose tonight, they’ll have to beat Valencia at Trafford for progress. No, I don’t think Ferguson will make a such gamble. Win tonight and don’t think on CL for a while is his idea, more probably. Vidic and Rio will both be rested (according to him), Rooney will take some part in the game. Little weird from him to leave both central defenders on the bench. Before few years I wouldn’t believe in this, but Darren Fletcher will also be rested in a Champions League game. However, players are used to play in rotation system and I don’t see a big problem for them in this. And tonight’s squad maybe won’t be so weakened because the importance of the game and the fact next PL game is at home against Blackburn. United are unbeaten in 11 European games on the road (8 wins and 3 draws).

Rangers will continue playing in Europa League and it’s probably crystal clear even for Smith and the Glasgow lads. That, further in my assuming, will cause a little bit more daring formation from Smith to decrease the pressure on defense line. Which, further, causes Utd will rip them off. First conceded goal will open them up and make them vulnerable for counter attacks. Away win with 2-3 goals margin.

Bet: Man Utd -1ah
Odd: 2.26 10bet
Stake: 7/10

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Still think about Valencia and -1.75ah (will post if decide to bet on it), but I won’t be on Spurs tonight. All world is on a home win with handicap and over. Too much money is in the game and I really wouldn’t be too surprised to see 1-0 win. 

Leicester and Everton - epilogue

Only losers complain about the bad luck and blame “outside factors” for their own failures. The thing is I cannot see who and with what tricks someone could make a profit last night in English games. Which is a very good sign my judging became terrible wrong. I’m facing so big crisis first time in my life and currently I’m only wasting my and money of the others. Only way out which I see is (to force myself) to make a break from betting. One weekend at least. It will be the first one in last 10 (or so) years I won’t make a single bet.

Thanks for visiting, sorry for the bad picks, I’ll be back soon.

With a hope in (and remembers on) better days,

Dule

Everton – Bolton

Everton are in a good run, in fact knowing Moyes’ work it should be a middle of a good run. Three wins and three draws in last six Premier games and all three draws came from the road (Fulham, Spurs and Blackpool). At Goodison, they’re a tough nut to crack for any (and it means any) Premiership side. The Toffees have lost only three of their last 22 Premier League matches and have won last four home games against Bolton without a conceding. Moyes will probably pick the same side from Blackpool’s draw, Rodwell and Fellaini should be on the bench.

Owen Coyle is doing a great job at Bolton with just two defeats in the past 11 rounds, there’s no doubt. And last round victory over Spurs was deserved without any doubt. My impression is his capability is limited with team’s. With players of that level is impossible to achieve anything higher than mid table position. If I try to find any bad side in his managing capability, it would be away games. The Trotters, as Burnley were doing under Coyle, most of the points collect at their Reebok Stadium. And I expect some kind of Spurs’ hangover in tonight’s game. After a great win, teams like Bolton usually fails in the next encounter. Coyle is without only long time sidelined Sean Davis, Joey O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jlloyd Samuel.

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Everton exited the crisis of results and finally look like a serious team. Hard working side, well covered on all positions. I fancy them to continue their good run and win this encounter.

u  
Bet: Everton -1ah
Odd: 2.17 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

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Leicester – Sheff Utd

I’m definitely not a keen of Sven-Goran Eriksson admirer, but couldn’t deny he made a very good impact at Leicester. Still a big reputation, I guess. However since his arrival, City noticed one defeat (not unexpected one, away at Swansea 0-2), one draw and three consecutive wins (I don’t count Cup defeat with mixed squad). Leicester have a potential for play-off (top side of the table surely), Sousa’s departure was a good thing and I expect they’ll continue with the climbing on the table. Skipper, Matt Oakley, should be fit after a knee injury. Same applies for defender Miguel Vitor.

Well, Blades even before the start gave up from play-off ambitions. But their performances and latest results threat to push them into relegation battle, as United have just one point more from bottom placed Palace. They have three defeats in a row and just one win from last 8 league games (Hull away, 1-0)! Some excuses could be addressed on the injury list that contains six players, captain (and key defender) Chris Morgan, Nick Montgomery, Ryan France, Stephen Jordan, Lee Williamson and in my opinion the most important - striker Darius Henderson. But despite that, Gary Speed doesn’t seem as a good choice for a gaffer, their performances are usually terrible and I don’t see them higher than a bottom side of the table at the end.  

Leicester are a strong favorite here. Only thing that worries me is Eriksson’s defensive style that applied in all his clubs and even in English national team. On the other hand United are struggling to score lately and Walkers surely is not a good place for a shooting practice. I expect a home win with a clean sheet. 2-0.
o 

Bet: Leicester -0.75
Odd: 2.05 Victor Chandler
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend and statistic update

Fourth time I wished to bet on City's game this season and noticed fourth loss! Really great...

Bristol City - Preston 1-1  1/2 LOSS
Watford - Nottingham Forest 1-1  DRAW
Plymouth - Swindon 0-4  WON
WBA - Man City 0-2  LOSS

Statistic:

November
Profit: -5.6 units Yield: -14.36%

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Season
Profit: -33.46 units Yield: -8.25%

See all bets
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WBA – Manchester City

Not in the mood to type. WBA are undefeated at home in five (!), in case of win they will climb to 4^th place, already defeated City at home this season (in Carling Cup 2-1) and surely won’t lack with self confidence. Important striker Odemwingie will probably pass fit for the game.

City are in the run of three consecutive defeats. Today’s game could be a good buy to Mancini and this game is make or break for them. In the last six they conceded 12 goals (all over 2.5). Defense doesn’t work as it should, but Tevez is back. Lots of attacking potential.

I don’t have a clue about possible winner, but we should see few goals here. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.91 William Hill
Stake: 8/10

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Plymouth – Swindon

The Pilgrims are waking up in the League One. Two home wins in a row, against league giants Huddersfield (2-1) and in the midweek vs. Bristol Rovers (3-1). They’re creating plenty of goal chances lately and possess great attacking potential. Bradley Wright-Phillips is league top goal scorer, they have fast wing play and legendary striker Rory Fallon who is back after injury. However, defense with 25 conceded goals in 15 games looks far from being secure. Additional problem for the back line is missing of two players, defender Johnson and goalie Button. Midfielder Conor Clifford is Cup tied.

Swindon are just a shadow from a team from previous season and play-off ambitions look unrealistic at this moment. Team’s mascot and top goal scorer, Billy Painter, went to Leeds, but their major problem is (same as with Plymouth) too much conceded goals (27 in 15 games). Additional headache for boss Danny Wilson is he cannot count on three defenders. Frampton,  Jean-Francois  and Amankwaah are all out! Good news is winger, Matt Ritchie, got the permission from Portsmouth to play today. Wilson was storming out on older players, after midweek 0-3 home defeat against Charlton for lacking of effort and giving a bad example to the youngsters. There should be some positive reaction from them.

Two attacking minded sides with big problems in the defense lines. FA Cup (and money rewards) should be a nice motivation. I can give a small advantage to the home side, but see goals as a better option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 bet365
Stake: 8/10

And probably one more pick, little later.

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Watford - Nottingham Forest

Despite they were already seen in the relegation battle before the start, the Hornerts made some great results that launched them in the top half of the table. Young players, combat spirit, attacking style with excellent leadership by Malky Mackay are Watford this season. However, they started to losing their breath lately. First Scunny took all three points from Vicarage Road, then they get trashed at Derby in the last round (1-4). Striker Danny Graham, should be fit, but defender Hodson and winger Cowie are sidelined. Watford have won only two of their last 11 home games against Forest.

Forest (as any team under Billy Davies) are well known “slow starters”. Differently from previous seasons, after run of draws they noticed two defeats on the road Barnsley 1-3 and Portsmouth 1-2 (and two wins at home though). Good excuse could be missing of attacking duo Tyson  – Earsnshaw. Both were on the bench in the last round, Earnshaw will start today’s game. They were second rated favorite for winning the Championship, nothing has changed in their potential and I expect them to make a winning streak very soon. No injury concerns for Davies.

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Watford had a surprising start which probably will make their mission easier to accomplish. But for me, they’re still relegation contender and expect their fall on the table. With Forest, situation is completely opposite. I cannot exclude a possibility of another draw, but see visitors as favorites here.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.19 188bet
Stake: 7/10

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Bristol City – Preston

As pre-season play-off contenders, the Robins started the season in a shocking manner collecting embarrassing 6 points in the first 11 rounds, conceding 22 goals in those! However, it seems they started finally with showing their potential as they’ve made a run of three games without a defeat. Home win over Reading, keeping QPR on a draw and spoiling Tony Mowbray’s debut at ‘Boro is a good starting point for the climbing on the table. Injured players, Ribeiro, Maynard and Vokes will have a fitness test, while midfielder Cole Skuse is returning to the squad. Bristol City have one defeat at home against Preston (in May 2000.) since 1927.

Differently from City, Preston are living their ambitions. They were tipped for promotion (or closely avoiding it) and their previous games go in that direction. Only 4 wins of 14 games with defense line that is leaking too much (30 conceding goals, the most in Championship and keeping just one clean sheet) should be a trend for a whole season. In my opinion, dad’s little son Darren, simply is not for this level of competition. His attacking style had some “moments of madness” in 6-4 victory at Leeds (after 1-4 at the half-time), or in a Cup game against Stockport (5-0), but any side that can hold them for a while (which means almost every in the second tier) will have a good chance to hurt them. Striker Jon Parkin is back after suspension, another striker Josh King got an injury, while third option in front Chris Brown will be out for five more weeks.

I’m more than satisfied with these odds for home side. City are boosted with away win at ‘Boro (as well as with good results in two games before that), definitely possess decent amount of quality and this should be a breaking point for them.

Bet: B.City -0.25
Odd: 1.90 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Monday's result and statistic update

I have an impression every game that I'm involved in has to produce some shocks. Two red cards in the first 30 minutes?! At least, bet is void not lost. All credits to WBA, didn't give up with nine players.

Statistic remains the same.

Blackpool - WBA 2-1 DRAW

Higlights

(In my opinion, WBA were robbed for both red cards.) 

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Blackpool – WBA

Despite they’re the poorest side in Premier and were tipped to be stuck for the bottom at the end of the season without too much points on the balance, Blackpool have noticed a decent start in the top crew. They have combat spirit and don’t respect anyone. They attacked Liverpool at Enfield and won (maybe never worse, but still it’s Liverpool), but on the other hand they have probably worst defense in  Premier. They simply can’t hold the things tight, if they don’t score will concede soon. Just on Man Utd’s games were seen more goals, they went over 2.5 in 7 of their 9 league games (two were 2-0) and all of their last 4 mutual games. Skipper and key player, Charlie Adam, is in a doubt for the game.

If the Seasiders are noticing a decent start, WBA are doing a dream one. They have 15 points and sounds unreal they’re two points far from Champions League! The characteristic that also applies to them is they’re playing without too much respect. The Baggies defeated Man City, Arsenal away, came from two behind at Old Trafford and don’t have a single defeat in last 8 competitive games! Striker Odemwingie and midfielder Morrison are in doubt, while duo Marc-Antoine Fortune and Jonas Olsson are back in contention. WBA have won their last four league games against Blackpool, scoring a total of 11 goals.

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I’m sure both sides fancy their chances tonight. Blackpool want to turn the corner (if that is possible however) after four defeats in last five games. WBA are on fire and will try to keep their recent run. Both sides carry an attacking style of play, won’t show too much respect (as usual) and I don’t think there’s a chance to cancel each other and play a boring game. Goals are very likely.

Bet: Over 3.0
Odd: 2.26 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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