Two value bets - 30 Sep

Two value bets.

England League Two, Southend - Shrewsbury

The hosts have noticed three wins in a row (all three without conceding), in the last round trashed Rotherham away. Two important players are back. Shrewsbury defeated Torquay last weekend, but have some injuries in the defence line for this match.

It is third against second, but I think Southend is overpriced.

Bet: Southend -0.25
Odd: 2.16 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10 

Ireland 1, Bohemians - St. Patrick`s Athletic

Both sides are fighting for a spot for Europe, precisely Bohs must win to stay in contention. They lost on the road against relegation contender UCD, in the midweek game and have few days less for a rest. Bohemians have same number of wins and defeats at home and against Pats play traditionally tight games. Visitors have five points more than the hosts and four straight wins on the road (two of these in Cup against second league sides) and all without conceding. I expect another tight game, but like the odds for Pats. Same handicap and small stake again.

Bet: St. Patrick's -0.25
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Conference betting, 27 Sep

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I’ve made a trip to Conference...

Kidderminster Harriers - Grimsby Town

The Harriers have two wins of last three rounds and only one home defeat (at the opening day). They seem to be in the uptrend (oppositely from the visitors) and have same points as play-off placed York. Grimsby have noticed two defeats of last three games, on the road one win, one draw, three defeats and haven’t scored on four of those five away. My price (without proper team news though) is 1.90. Guess over 2.5 would be a good choice as well.

Bet: Kidderm. -0.5
Odd: 2.13 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 2/10
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Telford United - Alfreton Town

United are back to home after two away games and two draws against strong opponents, Mansfield 1-1 and Fleetwood 2-2 (conceded in the stoppage time). They’ve won five of last six competitive games at home against Alfreton. 2.20 is also very good price in my opinion.

Bet: Telford
Odd: 2.20 (William Hill)

Stake: 2/10
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At the first sight, it looked like a big value on Mansfield against Wrexham, 0.0 (dnb) is as high as 2.63. But just have read they’re becoming a fans owned football club. Enough to live it alone...

Both bets are small stakes, naturally.

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Value betting 25 Sep, Finland and Brazil

KTP - GIFK, Finland 3A

I found a massive value in 2.20 (Bet365) for a home win. Then, in the blink of the eye price dropped to 1.91 (mine is 1.89), while at 188bet it is 1.75!
I am going to take a walk to some betting shop and game won't be in my statistic.

Botafogo - Sao Paulo

This is game of the day (night) in Brazil, 3rd against 2nd. Both sides have been playing pretty well lately. Two weeks ago, Botafogo were humiliated against 16th placed Ceara away. But, Botafogo also have won last four games (both home and away) against Sao Paulo. I'd say everything above evens is a value.

Bet: Botafogo -0.5
Odd: 2.13 (188bet)
Stake: 2/10
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League One betting, Bournemouth - Hartlepool

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The Cherries started the season in a very bad manner with six defeats in opening seven games. That record has been improved in last two trips to bottom two sides, Leyton and Exeter (both wins, 3-1 and 2-0). However, I am not sure how it really improved the atmosphere in the club and relation fans - Eddie Mitchell. Club sold plenty of important players, play-off looks very far and they could even find themselves in the relegation battle. There’re also long injury list. Four players injured in that away games, Symes and Partington are out as well and number of other players also receiving treatment. New signing Stephane Zubar will go straight in to the squad. Bournemouth beat the Pools only once of last eleven occasions (six draws though).

On the other hand, Monkey Hangers have been noticing a terrific start. They’re undefeated in eight, hold fifth position and have noticed four straight wins (bottom half sides, though). On the road they have two wins and two draws and scored nine in those (only Charlton scored that much). No injury concerns for manager Mick Wadsworth. They won’t lack in confidence since last season they won at the same place, but against Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth.

Think the bookmakers overreacted on Bournemouth’s two wins and I see price on visitors very attractive (in a free fall, currently). Expect the Pools to win by one, but cover the draw.

Bet: Hartlepool 0.0
Odd: 2.13 (Bet365)
Stake: 7/10

EDIT: I put a wrong price by mistake, changed now. It's not in a free fall. : ) 
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Championship betting, Middlesbrough - Ipswich

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‘Boro have suffered the first defeat this season against Crystal Palace in Carling Cup (won there in league three days before). They have scored in each game this season (with no clean sheet at home games though), have been playing really well and are one of the contenders for a direct promotion. Top scorer, Marvin Emnes, was rested in Cup defeat, while defender Joe Bennett is available after suspension. 

Ipswich seems to be recovered from a 1-7 humiliation at Peterborough, since they’ve noticed two wins of last three games (Leeds and Coventry, both at home). However, their defence concedes freely and remains the worst in the league with 16 goals in seven games (five of those were over 2.5). They have only one defeat against ‘Boro in 10 meetings in the top two divisions (back to Sep 2009). Winger Martin and defender Sonko are major doubts.

I think that Ipswich aren’t that bad as it looked in one moment and they can put a decent fight at Riverside. Wouldn’t even exclude the possibility of first class surprise. Four of last five games between these clubs ended with four or more goals and I’m gonna back it for once again.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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League One betting, Bury - MK Dons

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Bury reached promotion, but are on a very good way for an immediate return to fourth tier. They have five straight defeats in a league, scored only three goals in those and conceded 14! Liverpool’s striker, David Ammo, came for a month loan deal and players organized their meeting in the midweek with a wish to lift the mood.

The Dons ended their unbeaten run in Sheffield against Wednesday (losing 1-3), then drew at home against Hudders and lost in Cup vs. Burnley. They have had a plenty of problems with injured players, at Tuesday with suspensions and cup-tied players as well. On top of that, Bowditch, Williams and Potter picked up minor knocks and will have a late fitness test. However, four players will make their return to the squad with Clinton Morrison who came on one month deal from Sheff Wed.

Bury sold some important players (Ryan Lowe is the most significant) and they will be really struggling through the season. The Dons are serious contenders for play-off (at least) and despite the problems with missing players, this is the sort of the game they must win.

Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 1.81 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Univ. C.Vallejo - Alianza Atletico, Peru 1, 23h (CET)

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One small value bet for me. I would give 1.70 for a home side and prices at most of the books are between 1.70-1.80. It definitely worth of a punt at 1.90, but no reasons to go crazy. We’re talking about Peru.

Bet: UCV
Odd: 1.90 (Gamebookers)
Stake: 2/10
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Premier League betting, Fulham - Man City

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Pretty obvious reasons, plus I am sure that playing in Europa League will have bigger impact on Fulham (due to smaller number of squad players, of course). They have plenty of problems to score and I can’t see that changing this time. This is a great price.

Bet: Man City -0.75
Odd: 2.08 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Sheff Utd - Colchester

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Sheff Utd are second and still remain as top promotion contenders, but at Tuesday got a smack in the mouth from Hudders (not defeated in 34?!). Now they need to bounce back immediately, or will start to lose confidence, maybe even fans’ support. Midfielder Montgomery will miss again. He brings the strength, without him they have win, draw and a defeat of last 3.

Colchester are typical mid-table side who, actually like to play against league top teams. They went to Preston at the opening day and won 4-2 (yeah, I was on Preston), stayed undefeated at Scunny and Brentford and lost 2-3 at Hudders. They scored in nine of ten games this season and conceded in every, have three 1-1 draws in a row (cannot play it forever) and I thing they were lucky in several occasions.

The Blades are certain favourites, but I think Colchester won’t have any respect, they can score (once, at least) and make this game very interesting. I am going on goals, instead home win. (With over 2.75 you need four goals, with three - half win.)

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Stevenage - Notts County

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I’ll try to be brief today. Stevenage are newcomers in the third tier and are flying high in the moment. They have only one defeat out of eight games and that one was MK Dons away. Two home wins in a row (scored 9 in those), at Tuesday they demolished Sheff Wed 5-1! This is their first season in the League One and they won’t drop into lethargy, will push till their limits.

County have made a good start as well, noticed seven points of last three games. But, there’re two problems. First, they play much better and collect more points at home than on the road. Second, County played Juve last week (got home at Friday), played against Walsall at home at Saturday and traveled to Exeter on a midweek game. They have to feel some fatigue.

Bet: Stevenage -0.5
Odd: 2.12 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10

To the subscribers. Due to earlier kick-off, you won't get all previews for today (will receive it tomorrow). So, visit the blog later... Thanks. 
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Championship betting, Millwall - West Ham 13:30 (CET)

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Yeah, I know this is a big derby, fierce rivals, riots outside the stadium and who knows what else. But, Millwall don’t seem to be same team from previous season, are winless in last four, haven’t scored in last three in league and I think this is very good price. Expect West Ham to nick it for 1-0.

Bet: West Ham 0.0
Odd: 1.82 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, QPR - Newcastle

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QPR have brought six new players, but I still don’t know what to expect from them. But do know what to expect from this lad. Two times a post at Wigan, it's the time for a goal. Small bet though... 

If you’re interested in details, here’s my full betting preview written for Premier League Betting:

QPR - Newcastle 

Bet: Adel Taarabt anytime goalscorer
Odd: 4.10 (Unibet)
Stake: 2/10
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Championship betting, Barnsley - Leicester

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Cannot help myself, but have to take Leicester. Hate SGE and his football philosophy, but with such a big spending their squad simply jump-out from the rest of the league (along with West Ham). Barnsley lost both at home, made two good results on the road. Well, I have nothing too much to say about them. Lovre, Ricardo Vaz Te, strikers Davies and Noble-Lazarus, then defender Addison are all out. For Leicester, David Nugent is injured and Beckford will have his debut. Leicester have won nine of the last ten league games against Barnsley with keeping clean sheets in eight of them.

It hurts the most when I lose my money betting on Leicester or Man City, but as I said cannot help myself. Taking -0.25 in a try to keep my nerves.

Bet: Leicester -0.25
Odd: 1.78 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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Serbia betting, 10 Sep

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One speculative bet, from Serbian league. Normally, small stake.

Bet: Jagodina or draw (double chance)
Odd: 3.70 (bwin)
Stake: 2/10
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Maybe one more preview from England. If I am late to post it for email newsletter, apologize to the subscribers. Please, visit the blog. Cheers. 
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League One betting, Sheff Wed - MK Dons

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Sheff Wed have noticed a valuable, hard-fought point at the Valley. My impression is they could have done more and stayed on a point because Megson’s defensively 4-5-1 formation. When he noticed his mistake, it was already 0-1 with a tendency to make it worse. Anyways, the Owls play differently at Hillsborough, have all three wins so far and scored at least two in each of them. They remain strong favourites for play-off. Goalie is out, Nicky Weaver went to USA to see a specialist about a knee injury.

The Dons are on the top! Five wins and a draw of first six matches. Karl Robinson’s side play nice attacking football, have scored 17 goals in last five competitive games and was described like Real Madrid by the opponents (well, maybe it’s not too much when it comes from Yeovil). No reasons for a fear, or big respect. No injuries.

I am pretty sure Megson won’t start with 4-5-1 formation, the draw won’t be good enough. The Dons don’t know to play defensively and I guess they don’t want to. Fancy them to win it, but will go on goals as a better option. Five of last six games between these teams ended with three or more goals, last three with four or more.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Bristol City - Brighton

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The Robins have noticed just one win out of first five games (interesting, it was when no one expected at Leicester 2-1), at home played three games without a goal scored (Ipswich 0-3, Pompey 0-0 and Swindon in Cup 0-1). Club did the poor job in the transfer market, missing to strengthen their defence (brought some Premier League inexperience). They managed to keep Nicky Maynard (precisely, he didn’t manage to go), but only unless his contract expires next summer. So, I doubt his motivation during the season. Except the games against the league giants where his talent could be noticed, like in Leicester (both goals). Defender, Jamie McAllister, has been ruled out for two months, another defender Liam Fontaine is also sidelined, while goalie Dean Gerken is struggling with a back injury and will be probably out.

Brighton have been noticing an impressive start in Championship (best start to a league season in 54 years) with four wins and a draw out of five (only draw was vs. Blackpool 2-2, goal conceded in additional time). I don’t think it is just the syndrome of the first season in the higher level, they heavily invested in top striker, Craig Mackail-Smith (2.5million pound, possibly rising to 3.25million), young Will Buckley costs a million. Think they won’t stop after only few victories, like Millwall last season for example. No injury worries since mentioned Mackail-Smith and Buckley are declared fit, as well as defender Vincelot.

I am going to bet on a winning horse. As I said, I have reasons to believe their good run won’t stop soon. The Robins will stay in the league, but at the moment don’t look competitive (unless Maynard goes crazy). Also, books don’t seem to believe in the Seagulls and offered pretty high odds. I like it.

Bet: Brighton -0.25
Odd: 2.17 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Ireland betting, Friday 9 Sep

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Two value bets for tonight. In Ireland 1 I go on Bohemians. Ladbrokes offers 1.62, my odd is 1.38. They won vs. Drogheda 14 of last 15 (both home and away), but five of last six away won by a goal, so no handicap. In second division, value is on Longford Town. Double chance is at 2.50, while my odd is 2.34. 

Despite yesterday’s defeat in Finland, value bets still produce very good results.

Good luck, people!

Drogheda United - Bohemians

Bet: Bohemians
Odd: 1.62 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 2/10

Limerick FC - Longford Town

Bet: Longford or draw
Odd: 2.50 (William Hill)
Stake: 2/10
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Finland betting, MYPA 47 - IFK Mariehamn 5:30 (cet)

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My calculation says it's a very big value on the home side. Anything above 1.80 is worth of a shot.

Bet: MYPA 47 -0.5
Odd: 2.11 (Canbet)
Stake: 2/10
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Brazil betting, Botafogo - Ceara

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A value bet...

Bet: Botafogo -1ah
Odd: 1.85 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 3/10
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EURO 2012 betting, Serbia - Faroe Islands

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At this point of time, we can score only by accident, like we did in N.Ireland (decent display though). In last 5 (including friendlies) scored a total of three goals. Yeah, it’s only Faroe Islands, but players certainly feel some fatigue from the trip and they already calculated three points from this game. I don’t expect more than 10.000 people which could be additionally uninspiring for the players. Islanders will park the bus, they held Italians on 0-1.  In last three occasions we didn’t defeat them by more than three. Not so strong case and small bet. Additionally, I’ve noticed correct score 0-0 is at 40.00 (Unibet). Worth a micro stake. In our mentality is to spoil everything when literally no one expects.

P.S.: Congrats to our skipper for 100th appearance. Wish you at least four more!

Bet: F. Islands +3 (EH)
Odd: 2.38 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 3/10

Gamble: 0-0 correct score
Odd: 40.00 (Unibet)
Stake: 0.3/10 
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Russia betting, Baltika - Torpedo

                                         

  

 

Russia 2. I’ve checked today’s seven games and only in this one find any value. Home side should be more motivated and I had some caution adding an advantage to Baltika with potentially missing players (yeah, try to find some team news in Russian second), but I am still far from offered odd. I’d rate it as 1.79-1.84. And it’s interesting the better value is on 0.0 then on away win (double checked). 

Baltika - Torpedo
Bet: Torpedo 0.0
Odd: 2.10 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Sunday betting, 4 Sep

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One value bet for tonight, no team news, small stake.

Brazil 1, Palmeiras - Cruzeiro
Bet: Palmeiras
Odd: 2.00 (Interwetten)
Stake: 2/10
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League One betting, Hartlepool - Exeter

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Pools have four draws of opening five matches (and one win), but they played against sides like MK Dons, Hudders, Sheff Utd (Carling), Stevenage away. Before losing at Scunny (Cup), they had won at Rochdale (3-1). Some important players are returning to the squad, key defender Sam Collins and good-old Solano are fit, as well as forward Sam Collins and midfielder Antony Sweeney. Only doubt is striker James Poole. They have signed former Coventry City defender Stephen Wright on a short-term deal.

After three defeats in a row, Exeter defeated Chesterfield at home 3-1. During the midweek, they eliminated Plymouth after penalties. And while it’s certainly a moral boost, 120 minutes of play also should have an impact on team’s fatigue. Striker, Guillem Bauzà, after got injured last weekend will be probably out for few weeks.

Despite so many draws, Hartlepool look fine, they have some players back to the team and it’s the time for the first home win. Situation about Poole forces me to take another -0.25 and some covering of a draw. Still fine with the odds.

Bet: Hartlepool -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (188bet)
Stake: 7/10
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League One betting, Notts County - Bournemouth

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County have two wins and three defeats so far, but defeats came against league giants Charlton at home and Sheff Wed and Preston away in last two rounds. At Preston, they were doing well until ten last minutes when conceded twice (second goal directly from goalkeeper!). Their striker-legend, Lee Hughes, is in doubt, but few important players are returning (skipper Bishop (MID), Ravenhill (MID) and Ben Burges (STR)).

Bournemouth seem to be in a complete mess. From a promotion till relegation contenders, just in six months. Eddie Howe was their guru and since he left to Burnley, club started a free fall. The Cherries have sold plenty of important players (midfielder, Liam Feeney is the last on the list) and I think it won’t be such a big surprise if they find themselves in League Two next season.

This should be a six-pointer and naturally tight affair. I don’t like to bet on County without Lee Hughes (considering odds movement, he’s out), but this should be a home win. Just in case -0.25. 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Notts County -0.25
Odd: 1.91 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10 
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Probably one more preview, stay tuned...
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Russia betting, kick-off 4pm (cet)

Two value bets, based on stats only. Russian second tier. Small stakes, naturally.

Kamaz - Yenisey
Bet: Yenisey 0.0
Odd: 3.00 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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Mordovia - Sibir
Bet: Mordovia -0.25
Odd: 2.07 (Bet365)
Stake: 2/10
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