FA Cup - 29.01.


Some interesting games in FA Cup. Post will be updating with new picks.


Burnley - Burton

Burnley are very strong home side (5th in Championship considering points at home) and probably they’ll be in chase for promotion (through play-off). New boss Eddie Howe, started to improve away record winning at Portsmouth (at the same beat terrible record against Pompey). This is first home game and he’ll probably try to keep the momentum.

Guys from Pirelli Stadium are fighting for their lives in League Two (58 places lower than Burnley) with probably the worst away record in English football (6 points of 9 games). They started to improve under new boss Peschisolido and in previous round shocked ‘Boro at home, but don’t think they’re even close to surprise here.

I’ll try with two bets. The Clarets are strong favourites in my opinion (despite it’s a Cup) and I expect at least two goals margin (with one, half stake is back). Other one is gamble in hoping players will continue to impress new boss. Pure instinct.  

Bet 1: Burnley -1.25
Odd: 1.74 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
 
Bet 2: Burnley -3ah
Odd: 5.75 bet365
Stake: 1/10
 

Watford - Brighton

Watford are the highest scorers in Championship with 52 goals(!) in 26 games and their last eight games (seven in league) went in over 2.5 (five were over 3.5). Last weekend’s defeat at Cardiff ended their run of seven consecutive wins (six in league)! Malky Mackay rotated players in previous round vs. Hartlepool and will probably do that again. Skipper Eustace is rated as doubtful and will probably be saved for the league.

Brighton are flying high in the League One and it seems they’re sure for direct promotion (six points more than 3rd Hudders and game in hand). They’re playing nice, passing game that usually produces goals. In 2011. (last six games), The Seagulls scored 15 times. They won five of the last six league and cup encounters, in previous round they eliminated Pompey and as Hornets they shouldn’t be lacking in confidence.

I guess both sides are hoping for progress. Wouldn’t dare to predict a winner, but I think we’ll be watching an entertaining game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10


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Bets for Tuesday


Portsmouth - Burnley

Pompey are struggling as usual with all kind of problems, skipper Mokoena and striker Dave Kitson will miss again, Hughes and Brown are again out because of “ongoing contract issues” and they’re in winless streak of seven competitive games (six in league). However, their recent performances and fighting spirit promise better days. They unlucky lost at Nott Forest, then stopped Leeds at home (without same those players). Portsmouth are undefeated in 10 league matches against Burnley and have won the last four against them.
The Clarets are middle table side and they probably won’t go anywhere from the league. They’re also poor travellers as they won on the road just once of twelve encounters (seven draws though). Defender Carlisle faces a late fitness test.
Only thing that bothers me is Pompey concede too much lately, at last five in league conceded 13 goals. Anyway, I think it’s the time for their win.
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Bet: Portsmouth 0.0
Odd: 1.88 Canbet

Stake: 7/10
 Sheffield Wednesday – Yeovil

Wednesday suffered an embarrassment at East London for the weekend. Players apologised to the fans, Irvine to the fans and Mandaric, Mandaric gave support to the manager. I think they’ll strongly bounce back tonight, or it will be end of Irvine. They still have very quality players for this division and Leyton smacked them right in the mouth. I expect a response and rage on the pitch.
And Yeovil... It’s simply Yeovil.

Bet: Sheff Wed -1ah
Odd: 2.21 Canbet
Stake: 7/10


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Bolton - Chelsea


Really amazing stats, here. Coyle has been trying to make a fortress from home ground as he did in Burnley and he’s doing pretty well as Bolton have suffered just one home defeat of 11 Premier games (Liverpool 0-1), stopped Man Utd and defeated Spurs scoring four. On the other hand, Chelsea have been a bogy team for the Trotters. Both at home and away, Bolton have only one win out of 20 games and that came after Terry’s own goal in the last minute.  Even more, they lost last seven at home to nil.

Chelsea have only three wins on the road of eleven games which is quite shocking and they’re winless away from home in six games (four defeats). I’m not sure am I closer to believe Chelsea will bounce back trashing someone with 4/5-0, or they’ll simply sink with Ancelotti and stars which time has passed.

Definitely I can’t make a case for a serious bet. But with these odds, backing home side is more tempting. Will try with a small gamble, Bolton/Bolton ht/ft at 11 (various bookies) looks interesting.

Bet: Bolton/Bolton
Odd: 11.00 Betfred
Stake: 0.5/10


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Leyton Orient – Sheff Wed


Leyton have a decent home record (five wins out of nine), but against top sides played only twice and both times lost (Charlton and Hudders). They’re just two points above the relegation zone and I can’t see them far from that at the end. They’ll be without defender Omozusi and midfielder Chambers.

The Owls have noticed just one win in last five league encounters, but seems the things started to improve for Wednesday. Financial problems should be solved with Mandaric as a new owner, club brought four players, while on the pitch team looks a way better. In last two games, they noticed two decent results. First away win at Cup vs. Bristol City, then in last round a draw at home against Charlton (came from 0-2). New striker Madine and defender Reynolds should have their debuts.

I like the price here. I’m sure Wednesday will finish in the top 6 and will start very soon to collect points. However, I can not overlook possibility of a draw. 

Bet: Sheff Wed 0.0
Odd: 1.89 Victor Chandler
Stake: 7/10


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Cardiff - Watford


Home side are promotion contender, currently two points behind rivals Swansea (with a game in hand). Pressure on Dave Jones is growing recently as they won only two of their last nine league games. He has signed on loan Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey and striker Jay Emmanuel-Thomas. Both will be available for the game. Bothroyd returned to training and will have some role today. Bellamy should start.  

Before the start Watford were one of my favourites for relegation (as ‘Boro were for promotion), but they’re currently holding 6th place and have noticed seven wins in a row (six in league), having scored the highest number of goals (50, two goals per game in average)! Malky Mackay also has strengthened his squad with signing winger Townsend and striker Weimann on loan. Despite skipper Eustace and midfielder Cowie are sidelined, I’m sure they won’t be lacking in self-confidence.

Cardiff should be favourite here, but I’m not sure does it worth at 2.00. Games between these two sides are usually high scoring affairs, last nine(!) ended with three or more goals and I’m going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.87 188bet

Stake: 8/10

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Aston Villa - Man City


Villa are first above the relegation line with same points as Wigan. I think the market is overreacting on Bent’s arrival. First, he (probably) won’t start bagging the goals immediately. Second, I think he’s hardly overpaid and I’m not so sure it is a huge boost to the rest of the squad. The Villans have only one win of last 10 league games, haven’t kept the clean sheet in last 12 and defeated City just twice in 13 league games at Villa Park. Adding on that Gerard Houllier as manager, I wouldn’t be too optimistic. Good news is Ashley Young returns, bad (?) Heskey is suspended.

City are in a great shape with five wins and a draw (at Emirates) in last six Premier games. They also have superb record on the road with 21 points collected (just Arsenal have taken more). Whatever Mancini has been saying, I think Citizens are title contenders and failure in winning any silverware this season would bring an axe for him. Maybe that’s why he named a strong squad against Leicester in Cup game, but as long as Tevez is fit I don’t care too much about their available players. Silva or Johnson on the wing? Who really cares? Both are superb players. Mancini rested Barry, Dzeko, De Jong and Kolo Toure, all are back in contention. City have lost only twice against Villa of last 18 games, in all competitions, both at home and away (12 wins).

I think the price on City is simply too good to be refused. If they want the title they have to win games like this. Both of they away defeats came against mediocre teams (Wolves and Sunderland) and I hope they learnt the lesson.

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 1.98 Canbet, 188bet
Stake: 8/10


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Leeds - Arsenal

Leeds are really good in FA Cup recently, knocked Man Utd  at Trafford and played a draw at White Hart Lane last year, in this campaign resisted at Emirates (almost won, actually). Also, United will be confident as they’re undefeated at home in last seven and failed to score only once in last 15 games. The pressure is off (understandable) and Elland will be packed. No way I’ll be against them in these circumstances. Becchio  got some injury against Scunny and is rated as doubtful, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t start (as I was shocked with Cattermole at Sunday, though).

Problem with Arsenal is they’re missing too many chances and if don’t score until 60th minute, become nervous. On the other hand if Gunners manage to score in first 15-20 mins, they will run the riot. Leeds kept them quiet in the first encounter, will they be able to do that again? No, I don’t believe in it. Arsenal have Wigan for the weekend and Ipswich for six days (after 0-1) and nobody could really assume the team that Wenger will name. Before the Emirates’ draw, Gunners noticed three consecutive wins over Leeds, scoring 13 goals in those. Arsenal haven’t been knocked in the third round in past 15 years.  

I won’t be involved in the final outcome, but high scoring game and away win is my expected scenario. Don’t think Leeds can keep it tight again and I’m sure they really believe in progress. On the other hand, Wenger knows here’s no reply. Goals would be my call.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.06 188bet
Stake: 8/10


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Sunderland - Newcastle

Sunderland are doing pretty well this season, they’re on unreal (for me, at least) 6th place and have lost only once at Stadium of Light (weird game vs. Blackpool 0-2). At home they have conceded the least number of goals in Premier (seven) and have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven league games. Three important players should return for the game. Defender Onuoha is sure, Cattermole is key man in the middle of the park and knowing his temper I have impression he’d play with one leg. Wellbeck should also take some role in the derby. At the previous game, they were humiliated with 1-5 trashing.

The Toon are also having a good season and Pardew’s era started with expected results. Wins against Liverpool, Wigan and West Ham, defeats vs. City and Spurs. Nothing much to say about them, my impression is management’s decision to sack Hughton was too harsh. We’ll see, but personally I don’t expect more than the middle of the table from Newcastle. Big problem for today is missing of Andy Carroll - top scorer with 11 goals, but they’ll also miss his defensive role at set-pieces. Midfielder Tiote is suspended.

I fancy Sunderland here. They seem to be a stronger side, are performing very well at home and should be too much for the Toon without Carroll. However, I’m taking some cover in case of a draw.

Bet: Sunderland -0.25
Odd: 1.82 Canbet
Stake: 8/10


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Walsall - Huddersfield

The Saddlers are fighting for their lives in League One, currently big 7 points below the line. They got new manager (caretaker) Dean Smith who started the campaign with two away draws (Tranmere 3-3 and B.Rovers 2-2). They also showed some good spirit, both times coming to point from behind. Goalie  Walker and midfielder Taundry are injury doubts. Walsall conceded 12 goals in last four league games.

Before the start of the season, Hudders (with Sheff Wed) were my favourites for direct promotion. They’re still close to it (one point less than 2nd S’ton), but really need some consistency. They beat mentioned Wednesday two weeks ago and it could be a turning point for them, before strong finish. Defender Carey finished the loan and returned to Celtic, other defender Kadar started his deal. No injury worries for boss Lee Clark.

Walsall gained some confidence, I’m sure they won’t show with a white flag and will try to hurt the giants. That should guarantee an entertaining afternoon at Bescot Stadium. Nine of their last eleven encounters produced three or more goals. I see the same scenario once again.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.75 bet-at-home
Stake: 8/10


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Nottingham Forest - Portsmouth

Forest are in a great run of results. Four wins of last five competitive games (three of four in Championship) and haven’t lost at City Ground in 31 occasions! No injury worries for Billy Davies. Skipper Paul McKenna has returned in Preston after two months and came from the bench, perhaps will start today. The target is a play-off spot and I don’t worry they’ll look complacent at any moment.

Pompey have a decent squad and experienced players, but continue with struggling against the problems outside the pitch. Richard Hughes and Michael Brown are out because of “ongoing contract issues”. Dave Kitson and Greg Halford are suspended, while midfielder Lawrence should be fit. Club has brought defender Ritchie De Laet (never heard for him) on loan from Man Utd and he could be in the starting eleven. They’re winless in last five (three consecutive defeats) and in every of last four games conceded three times!

Cannot say I’m delighted with 1.65, but it seems Pompey didn’t deserve more. 2-0 correct score.

More to follow...

Bet: Nott Forest -1ah
Odd: 2.10 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10


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Psychology and Self-discipline in Betting

Here's one more article that I wrote for superbetting.com. It's about importance of psychology in betting, similarities between losers and alcoholics, few common mistakes that rookies make and advices for avoiding.
It should be interesting for every bettor. Be free to comment it through the chat box, or e-mail.
The original address of the article:
http://superbetting.com/betting-psychology-n42.html 


Psychology and Self-discipline in Betting

Accept your losses

Psychology and self-discipline in betting 1
Dr Alexander Elder, one of the most famous financial traders and writer of several books, wrote: “Being a trading loser is like being an alcoholic. Apply their 12-steps principles and you will stop losing.” The same thing is with betting. Unofficial statistic says only 1% of bettors is making a long-term profit. When you enter into betting industry, you will be part of that other group and your possible success depends first from the way how you approach to it. If you're looking for a weekend fun, like a social drinker who occasionally enjoys a glass of wine (again parallel with alcoholics), everything will be easier. You will not get rich from betting, in fact you will hardly win anything. But your possible wins would have bigger importance and losses would be acceptable. But, real problems come when you make a “serious plan” to rob the bookmakers. One sub-group who I would call “lucky losers” are those who lost all savings, then realize the absurdity of that idea and quit with it. Other sub-group will be insisting with blaming all other factors, but themselves. Luck is the most popular excuse. Let me make it clear, there is nothing like a bad luck in betting! Your team got a red card, or conceded a goal in injury time? Yes it could be nasty, but next time it will be opposite. If you put the line at the end of the season, there will be nearly the same number of both occasions. Further, members of this group refuse to accept they are losers (same as alcoholics). They lie to family, friends and themselves. In the meantime, they are changing methods, systems and paid services they use. Next phase is hitting the rock bottom. The worst cases lose the family, job and roof over the head. So, first step for becoming a successful bettor is to accept a painful truth and admit you are a loser! 

Change your thinking

Psychology and self-discipline in betting 2
To avoid the first trap, you will have to forget the idea about getting rich on a quick way. Your enemies are bookmakers and they are consisted from the top class professionals. Your winning is their losing. It is not a shame to fail. But if you want a piece of the cake, you'll have to be better than them. Your starting position is bad. Work hard and the loss will be decreasing. Your first target should be avoiding defeats. When you reach the point when put the line after one season and your balance is not negative, you deserve applause. And only then you can start thinking about yourself as a good bettor and long-term profit. Road to this is far from being easy or short. As I mentioned, 99% don’t reach this level. Other choice is to make approach to betting like an entertainment. Take the amount you usually spend on drinks at Saturday night or for a new t-shirt. Losses will not harm you, winnings will give you a good feeling.

Always stay calm

There is a big difference between winner's and loser's state of mind. Wins make loser feels powerful and give him emotional high. He wants to get the high again, puts the reckless bets and gives the profit back to the bookies. Then he wants to return and more bad bets will follow. Most bettors can't endure the pain of a string of severe losses, every loss is a small tragedy. Very popular try to get over it is “all or nothing bet”. Then he demolish a betting account and he's washed out from the market. Only few of them realize the problem is not with their methods, trouble is with their thinking. Oppositely, winner accepts his wins and losses without too much emotion. He knows he's good and his work will be paid off sooner or later. Season is long and one bad bet is nothing comparing with that. 

Danger of winning and losing streaks

Psychology and self-discipline in betting 3
Up and down trends are very common things in betting, even professionals face it. When average rookie makes few wins in a row, he feels unstoppable. He will increase the stakes on bigger risks and very soon he will return the money to bookmakers. Oppositely, losing streaks make him feels bad and his dignity is harmed. You just had a bad weekend? It happens, forget about it. Be strong and wait for the next round of your favorite league. International break is approaching and there's no league football for two weeks? Does not matter, cope with your feelings and simply forget about it. One friend of mine is the owner of land bookmaker shop. He told me once,his biggest earnings come at Sunday nights. Most punters try to recover their weekend losses betting on late kick-offs in South American leagues (Boca always “have to win”). Make your bank for betting only from money you can afford to lose (exclude the possibility of borrowing the money, or selling the things) and decide which is the highest percent you can use daily. It should be in the range of 5-10%. You can spend it all on a single game, or separate it on few smaller bets. But when you spend whole daily budget (even if it is for early kick-off at 1pm), no matter what, do not touch your bank till tomorrow! Self discipline isn't less important than predicting the game outcome.  If your average number of bets is 25 for a month, you won’t help yourself with making it 50. Your monthly statistic will be negative? Let it be, leave it alone. Make your research from game to game and don’t think about statistic when make decisions about the bets. Being impulsive will not ever help you. At the end, bear in mind all depends only from you.

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Brighton & Hove - Portsmouth

Hosts are strong promotion contender from League One (holding the top). Despite Gus Poyet takes every opportunity to point how cup competitions are not important (appearances in previous rounds against Woking and FC United of Manchester can just confirm that), their 4-3-3 formation won’t be changed particularly for this game. Considering odds drop on home side, Poyet will probably name the strong squad.
Pompey are winless in last four league games (2D-2L) and conceded three times in every of last three! They simply can’t keep the clean sheet (did it just once in last 12). However, Steve Cotterill has only 14-15 players fit. This could mean he’ll name the strongest squad.
Both sides are attacking minded and although I give more chances to Portsmouth, my call is goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.02 bet365
Stake: 7/10


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Burnley - Port Vale

Burnley are 10th in Championship with more than decent home record (8W-2D-3L). Their current form is not something special as they have four wins and four defeats in last eight and have not kept a clean sheet for 13 league and cup games. However, caretaker Stuart Gray plans to name the strongest squad for this game. Only missing is striker John Guidetti who returned to Manchester City.
Port Vale are third in League Two and fight for a direct promotion (a point below the line). In the last league round they beat Burton at home (2-1), but before that they noticed three consecutive defeats on the road where scored zero and conceded nine goals. Best striker, Marc Richards, is injured (and suspended). Midfielder Doug Loft will also be sidelined due to injury.
Burnley are 42 places higher than Port Vale. Difference in quality, serious approach and home turf are factors that make me feel there’s no room for surprise.

Bet: Burnley -1.25
Odd: 2.03 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10


Maybe one more...

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Southampton - Blackpool

S’ton are doing well in League One, second place and good run of results. Three wins in a row and eleven goals scored in those (one of them was Hudders at home 4-1). Nigel Adkins will name almost the strongest squad, only absentee is winger Lee Holmes. Striker Lee Barnard should be in starting eleven. Saints lost in the third round in only one of the last six seasons.
Holloway had an interesting press conference where he said he’ll name not weakened, but 2nd team at St Mary's. Premier League is priority, we play top games every week, blah blah. While his attitude is completely understandable, I don’t believe they’ll show the white flag before the kick-off. And it wouldn’t be the first time Blackpool to make a shock with fringe players. Also, I’m positive Holloway will not change the style of play. 
Southampton should be (at least) a slight favourite here, but at 1.90 it doesn’t worth imo. I will go for goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.75 Interwetten
Stake: 8/10

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More to follow...

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Everton - Tottenham

I’m not sure what’s going on with Everton. They have had a bad run almost in every season under Moyes, but this time they apparently can’t pull themselves out of the mud. Everton have only one win in last ten games (City away) and have gained only ten points at home (only Blackpool got less). Also, Toffees kept a clean sheet only once in those ten (Wigan at home 0-0) and their performance doesn’t look good. The big(gest) problem for tonight is absence of Moyes’ key man, Tim Cahill (scored 9 of 21 team’s goals), who is out for Australian national team. Defender Jagielka is also out, while Heitinga and Coleman are facing a late fitness test. Everton have only managed to win two of their last nine home games.

Beside Man Utd, Tottenham are probably enjoy the best shape in Premier. They haven’t felt the taste of defeat in eleven competitive games (won six and draw twice in last 8 Premier games) and have noticed three league wins in a row. They play very well and have Bale (11 goals) and Van der Vaart (10 goals) in fantastic form. Bad news is ‘Arry also has some injury worries. Defoe and Kaboul are still suspended, while Hutton and Gallas got the knocks and their appearance is doubtful.

This is great value for me, Spurs shouldn’t be priced at 3.14 (away win at Pinnacle). They maybe looked tired against Fulham (or just were keeping the strength, who knows) and have some problems with defence line, but Everton’s attack without Cahill usually looks toothless. Goodison is not a happy place to go, but I can’t see the hosts winning this one. I’m covering a draw and taking dnb option at excellent odd.  

Maybe one more game...

Bet: Tottenham 0.0
Odd: 2.28 188bet
Stake: 9/10


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Chelsea - Aston Villa

Very soon I'll start to write full previews again. For now, again just a pick.


Bet: Chelsea -1.75
Odd: 2.05 gamebookers
Stake: 8/10


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