League One betting, Bournemouth - Hartlepool

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The Cherries started the season in a very bad manner with six defeats in opening seven games. That record has been improved in last two trips to bottom two sides, Leyton and Exeter (both wins, 3-1 and 2-0). However, I am not sure how it really improved the atmosphere in the club and relation fans - Eddie Mitchell. Club sold plenty of important players, play-off looks very far and they could even find themselves in the relegation battle. There’re also long injury list. Four players injured in that away games, Symes and Partington are out as well and number of other players also receiving treatment. New signing Stephane Zubar will go straight in to the squad. Bournemouth beat the Pools only once of last eleven occasions (six draws though).

On the other hand, Monkey Hangers have been noticing a terrific start. They’re undefeated in eight, hold fifth position and have noticed four straight wins (bottom half sides, though). On the road they have two wins and two draws and scored nine in those (only Charlton scored that much). No injury concerns for manager Mick Wadsworth. They won’t lack in confidence since last season they won at the same place, but against Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth.

Think the bookmakers overreacted on Bournemouth’s two wins and I see price on visitors very attractive (in a free fall, currently). Expect the Pools to win by one, but cover the draw.

Bet: Hartlepool 0.0
Odd: 2.13 (Bet365)
Stake: 7/10

EDIT: I put a wrong price by mistake, changed now. It's not in a free fall. : ) 
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League One betting, Notts County - Bournemouth

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County have two wins and three defeats so far, but defeats came against league giants Charlton at home and Sheff Wed and Preston away in last two rounds. At Preston, they were doing well until ten last minutes when conceded twice (second goal directly from goalkeeper!). Their striker-legend, Lee Hughes, is in doubt, but few important players are returning (skipper Bishop (MID), Ravenhill (MID) and Ben Burges (STR)).

Bournemouth seem to be in a complete mess. From a promotion till relegation contenders, just in six months. Eddie Howe was their guru and since he left to Burnley, club started a free fall. The Cherries have sold plenty of important players (midfielder, Liam Feeney is the last on the list) and I think it won’t be such a big surprise if they find themselves in League Two next season.

This should be a six-pointer and naturally tight affair. I don’t like to bet on County without Lee Hughes (considering odds movement, he’s out), but this should be a home win. Just in case -0.25. 1-0 correct score.

Bet: Notts County -0.25
Odd: 1.91 (Canbet)
Stake: 8/10 
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Probably one more preview, stay tuned...
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League One betting, Bournemouth - Huddersfield 13:45 cet

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Bournemouth lost the pace when Eddie Howe left the club (for Burnley). They did secure the play-off, but crew doesn’t look like same as before. The Cherries have noticed only two wins out of last twelve matches, while the biggest concern for boss Bradbury is defence line that is still leaking too many goals (without a clean sheet in mentioned twelve). Bournemouth haven’t defeated today’s opponent in last 12 occasions (both at home and away).

Hudders are the biggest favorites in play-off and books offer 2.50-2.65 for their promotion. I can’t see how it’s better than backing them in all three games. However, they are in a pretty good shape as they have 25 games without a defeat. Also, Hudders have noticed six away wins in a row (including sides like Brighton and MK Dons) and scored 12 goals in last four games. Beside long-term injuries, boss Clark has a full squad available while loaned players all got clearance to feature.

The biggest favorites don’t always win, pressure certainly will be on them, last time they crashed under the weight of great expectations, could be down hearted for losing a direct promotion. No, not enough reasons even for a doubt. Hudders will go to Old Trafford (interesting, not Wembley). Home side in some scenario only could snatch a draw. I guess both to score is also a good bet (or 1-1 correct score could be nice gamble), but will back the visitors (with covering the draw).

More to follow... 

Bet: Hudders 0.0
Odd: 2.05 188bet
Stake: 8/10 
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Saturday and statistic update

Notts County - Yeovil  4-0  WON
Huddersfield - Bournemouth  2-2  LOSS
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Statistic:
September
Profit: -8.7 units Yield: -39.55%
Season
Profit: +16.66 units Yield: +12.21%

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Huddersfield Town - AFC Bournemouth

In my opinion, Huddersfield are a strong contender for the place number 2 (just behind Sheff.Wed.) and direct promotion. They made an average start with 7 points from 4 games. They carry attacking style of play which, beside convincing wins against Notts County (3-0, away) and Charlton (at home 3-0), brought them two convincing defeats against Everton in Cup (1-5, away) and Posh (2-4 away, all 4 conceded in the 2^nd half after 2-0 lead). The biggest problems are visible when they face a team that “park the bus”, like Tranmere (0-0, at home). Some important players are returning to the squad. Young goalie, Alex Smithies, are back from England U-21, defender Lee Peltier has served his suspension, while winger Anthony Pilkington returns from an injury.

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Bournemouth have made a flying start of the campaign with same number of points (seven) as today’s opponent. However, beside impressive home win vs. Posh 5-1 other win came from the game against top relegation contender Tranmere (3-0, away), while two last home games ended with the draws. First County scored twice for 3-3, then Torquay resisted in the Cup game (0-0, home). However, injury crisis has struck the club. Striker Symes and midfielder McQuoid are in serious doubt, while another two strikers Fletcher and Lovell are ruled out. New striker, Lyle Taylor, should start.

 

Bournemouth are a kind of the opponent that Hudders like to play against. They carry attacking style and won’t be defending with 10 players, while their recent results call on serious approach. Beside a win, home side should work on self-confidence. Correct score 3-0, 3-1.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah
Odd: 2.05 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday's results and two announcements

Southampton - Bournemouth  2-0 WON

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MK Dons - Dag & Red  2-1 1/2 WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +12.15

Yield: +39.19%

See all the details about the bets

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I: I was trying to find a service that could guarantee for my bets and statistic. Without too much success as all of them require some decent additional effort and I'm not in the mood for that. So, here's a deal. I won't be editing posts with the bets (results will be published in a new one). Every bet has its post and posting time is before a game. If you aren't sure about my honesty, Google don't lie. : ) 

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II: Live bets are important part. Mainly, I use it to edge my bets. I'll be posting it in the chat box, including odds and stake. If you follow some my bet, be here during the game and see what and when to bet. Remaining of these bets depends from your feedback. No feedback for a while would mean there's no interest and I'll stop publish that.

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Make your e-mail subscription (below the chat box) and get my picks directly in your mail box.

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I really appreciate any feedback that I get. You have my e-mail, chat and comments. Suggestions, ideas, what you like, what you don't, opinion about some bet... Help me to make this blog even better.

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Lots of friendlies tonight. My focus will be another two games of Carling Cup. Will make a closer view and post a bet(s) if there's any.

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August is always a tough month, this is a great start of the season. Hope you followers enjoy.

Thanks for the visiting and good luck,

Dule

Southampton - Bournemouth

Differently from previous season when they were playing without too much pressure (thankfully to 10 points penalty) and making some very good results, in this one Saints are one of the two main contenders for a direct promotion. They’ve noticed a bad start (0-1 at home, Plymouth), missing a lot of chances to score. Top scorer, Rickie Lambert, will miss another game, but attacking midfielder, Adam Lallana (20 goals in all competitions, last season), will start. Also, tonight’s opponent is local rival, from the same league and there shouldn’t be any under estimation. As I posted, Saints rarely lose in this round.

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Bournemouth progressed to the third tier and they’ll surely have a tough season. They’ve made some big signings (big for League One) that should allow them to be competitive. However they lost at South London vs. Charlton (which was expected), but the failure in the first home game (another promotion contender - Peterborough) could bring a pressure and problems. The biggest problem in League Two campaign was a limited number of players and squad depth. Simply, I think they have more important things to think about. Also, Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row. Boss Eddie Howe has almost all squad available. Midfielder Hollands and striker Symes are not fully fit and they’ll take some part in the game, more likely than to start.

 

Saints need to bounce back to return the self confidence (before Plymouth, lost at home vs. Reading 2-4 in pre-season). I think St Mary's will be a hard place to go this season, expect a strong display from home side and few goals.

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Bet: Southampton -1 ah

Odd: 2.05 Bet365

Stake: 8/10