Championship and League Two betting, 14th Feb

Brighton - Millwall

Brighton are undefeated in last nine competitive games and have three straight home wins (Leicester, Bristol City and Southampton). They’re bouncing back for play-off contention, currently one point below the line.

Millwall have only one win out of last eight in league and have failed to score in eight of last eleven matches.

Like the price and am backing Brighton.

Bet: Brighton -0.5
Odd: 2.15 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

Aldershot Town - Hereford United
Aldershot defeated AFC Wimbledon in previous round, before that had a streak of six games without winning and scoring.

Hereford recently look fine on the road with 2 wins and 2 draws out of last four and watching their mutual score, I’ve counted just one defeat (previous game) against Aldershot in previous 14 games (both home and away).

The Shots will give a debut to the three loan players, but anyway I think they don’t deserve to be below evens. I am taking United.

Bet: Hereford +0.25
Odd: 2.31 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 6/10
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Championship betting 1 Nov

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Crystal Palace - Portsmouth

Palace are flying really high (they remind me on Newcastle in Premier) and are at shocking 3^rd place. They’re also undefeated in six league matches (four wins, two draws) and haven’t conceded in last four.

Pompey have a miserable record on the road with just two points of seven away games (including previous season, eleven games without a win) and have noticed five defeats in a row. They got smashed vs. Derby at Saturday, conceding three goals for a half of hour and despite Sean O'Driscoll is already seen as a new manager, I don’t expect any positive impact on the squad (yet).

It’s a very good price on Palace (everything above evens is a very good price, in my opinion), but some covering of a draw should be reasonable.

Bet: Crystal Palace -0.25
Odd: 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10

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Watford - Brighton

The Hornets defeated Peterborough at Sunday and ended a run of four straight defeats (all four against top-half sides though). However it was fifth win in 18 competitive games at home and they have the 2^nd worst defence in Championship.

Brighton are in a bad run of results, but watching more closely I had an impression they haven’t been “that” bad. Three draws and one defeat of last four in league. Goalless draw at home vs. Hull (Hull with their strong away record), then point at the Den against Millwall. A minimal home defeat against West Ham in a game that could have gone in both directions and finally a hard fought point away at Brum. They’ve been defending very well and been dangerous in front. I think it will be working nice at Vicarage Road and find this price very generous.

Bet: Brighton 0.0
Odd: 2.11 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Championship betting, Bristol City - Brighton

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The Robins have noticed just one win out of first five games (interesting, it was when no one expected at Leicester 2-1), at home played three games without a goal scored (Ipswich 0-3, Pompey 0-0 and Swindon in Cup 0-1). Club did the poor job in the transfer market, missing to strengthen their defence (brought some Premier League inexperience). They managed to keep Nicky Maynard (precisely, he didn’t manage to go), but only unless his contract expires next summer. So, I doubt his motivation during the season. Except the games against the league giants where his talent could be noticed, like in Leicester (both goals). Defender, Jamie McAllister, has been ruled out for two months, another defender Liam Fontaine is also sidelined, while goalie Dean Gerken is struggling with a back injury and will be probably out.

Brighton have been noticing an impressive start in Championship (best start to a league season in 54 years) with four wins and a draw out of five (only draw was vs. Blackpool 2-2, goal conceded in additional time). I don’t think it is just the syndrome of the first season in the higher level, they heavily invested in top striker, Craig Mackail-Smith (2.5million pound, possibly rising to 3.25million), young Will Buckley costs a million. Think they won’t stop after only few victories, like Millwall last season for example. No injury worries since mentioned Mackail-Smith and Buckley are declared fit, as well as defender Vincelot.

I am going to bet on a winning horse. As I said, I have reasons to believe their good run won’t stop soon. The Robins will stay in the league, but at the moment don’t look competitive (unless Maynard goes crazy). Also, books don’t seem to believe in the Seagulls and offered pretty high odds. I like it.

Bet: Brighton -0.25
Odd: 2.17 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Championship betting, Cardiff - Brighton

Before the start of the season, my impression was Cardiff lost some quality. But, two nice wins for them in the first two rounds. First lucky one at Upton Park, then they furiously finished the job for 35 min against B.City at home. Certainly, they won’t be lacking in confidence tonight. Only doubt is midfielder, Aron Gunnarsson, who will face the late fitness test. Cardiff haven’t lost last nine home league games against Brighton and lost only one of the last 12 in league. On the other hand, they never won the first three fixtures of a season in their 91-year league history (why should they now?). Every of their last seven home games produced three or more goals.

Brighton also made an impressive start of the campaign, winning both league games (and Carling Cup fixture). However, they were very fortunate in both of them. First scored a winner against Donny in 97th min and at Pompey, Liam Lawrence missed a penalty in 96th min for a draw. Maybe, they’re running out of luck. They play nice passing game and have great Craig Mackail-Smith in attack. It should make a serious threat for Welsh defence line. Only problem for Poyet is other striker Will Buckley (scored twice against Donny), got an injury and will be out for tonight. The Seagulls haven’t lost in nine away league games (6W, 3D). 

Both sides won their games and we still haven’t seen their limits. I am closer to think that home win is on cards, but all that attacking potential should produce some goals and make a good entertainment. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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Championship betting, Brighton - Doncaster

After a superior season in 3rd tier, the Seagulls probably couldn’t wish a better opponent for a first game in Championship. As every newcomer, their enthusiasm will be highest at the start. In fact, when I think a little bit better, they maybe even have some chance for good result. Poyet made a first class surprise and beat other rivals for a Craig Mackail-Smith’s signature (35 goals last season in League One). 

Donny were one of the worst travellers last season and conceded 50 goals in 23 away games. They haven’t strenghten the team too much (I’ve noticed Giles Barnes from WBA) and probably one more season of struggling is in front. However, they usually have a good start of the campaign and maybe they can surprise today.

I was in dilemma, home win or goals. Brighton will have to adopt to their new home, Falmer Stadium (will probably be packed though). They scored 54 goals in League One at home and got huge quality in Mackail-Smith. On the other hand, both sides play a nice passing game that usually produces some goals. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet 
Stake: 6/10

One more...

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Brighton - Southampton

The Seagulls are new champions in League One and they did it on impressive way. 17 wins and 4 draws at home, best attack in league (don’t count Peterborough, of course), best defence, eleven wins and a draw in last 12 games! Hats off. Biggest betting concern is will they “slow down” and play with the youngsters. Or will they try to reach 100 points as Poyet mentioned few times. I think they wouldn’t like to lose at home and to lose from big rivals. The matter of principles, I’d say.

The Saints are also in a great shape and are pushing for a direct promotion. Hudders won today and they dropped on 3rd place (two games in hand). They have eight wins of last ten (one draw and defeat) and considering scored and conceded goals they’re just behind Brighton. Key player Lallana will probably play (despite rated as in doubt), Chamberlen and defender Harding as well.

I guess there’s a possibility to Poyet send youngsters, lose the game and pretend he doesn’t care. I don’t believe in that and expect a fight. Two best attacks and two clubs that like to pass. Goals for me, once again.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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FA Cup - 29.01.

Some interesting games in FA Cup. Post will be updating with new picks.

Burnley - Burton

Burnley are very strong home side (5th in Championship considering points at home) and probably they’ll be in chase for promotion (through play-off). New boss Eddie Howe, started to improve away record winning at Portsmouth (at the same beat terrible record against Pompey). This is first home game and he’ll probably try to keep the momentum.

Guys from Pirelli Stadium are fighting for their lives in League Two (58 places lower than Burnley) with probably the worst away record in English football (6 points of 9 games). They started to improve under new boss Peschisolido and in previous round shocked ‘Boro at home, but don’t think they’re even close to surprise here.

I’ll try with two bets. The Clarets are strong favourites in my opinion (despite it’s a Cup) and I expect at least two goals margin (with one, half stake is back). Other one is gamble in hoping players will continue to impress new boss. Pure instinct.  

Bet 1: Burnley -1.25
Odd: 1.74 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
 

Bet 2: Burnley -3ah
Odd: 5.75 bet365
Stake: 1/10
 

Watford - Brighton

Watford are the highest scorers in Championship with 52 goals(!) in 26 games and their last eight games (seven in league) went in over 2.5 (five were over 3.5). Last weekend’s defeat at Cardiff ended their run of seven consecutive wins (six in league)! Malky Mackay rotated players in previous round vs. Hartlepool and will probably do that again. Skipper Eustace is rated as doubtful and will probably be saved for the league.

Brighton are flying high in the League One and it seems they’re sure for direct promotion (six points more than 3rd Hudders and game in hand). They’re playing nice, passing game that usually produces goals. In 2011. (last six games), The Seagulls scored 15 times. They won five of the last six league and cup encounters, in previous round they eliminated Pompey and as Hornets they shouldn’t be lacking in confidence.

I guess both sides are hoping for progress. Wouldn’t dare to predict a winner, but I think we’ll be watching an entertaining game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Brighton & Hove - Portsmouth

Hosts are strong promotion contender from League One (holding the top). Despite Gus Poyet takes every opportunity to point how cup competitions are not important (appearances in previous rounds against Woking and FC United of Manchester can just confirm that), their 4-3-3 formation won’t be changed particularly for this game. Considering odds drop on home side, Poyet will probably name the strong squad.

Pompey are winless in last four league games (2D-2L) and conceded three times in every of last three! They simply can’t keep the clean sheet (did it just once in last 12). However, Steve Cotterill has only 14-15 players fit. This could mean he’ll name the strongest squad.

Both sides are attacking minded and although I give more chances to Portsmouth, my call is goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.02 bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Saturday's results

Bristol City were a shocker, but good day after all. Hope you enjoy.

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Sheffield Wednesday - Brighton  1-0 WON

Bristol City - Barnsley  3-3 LOSS

Birmingham - Blackburn  2-1 WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +14.62

Yield: +19.11%

See all bets

Sheff Wed – Brighton

Wednesday should be main contender for direct promotion from League One and opening two rounds just confirmed my opinion. In the first round defeated Dag&Red 2-0, but should have scored few times more. Only weakness so far, was visible in the first half of second game (Colchester, 1-1 away). Manager Alan Irvine changed his 4-3-3 formation and they were outplayed. In the 2^nd half sent Mellor on pitch and got an equalizer from him. Mellor’s fitness is improving and with Morrison and Tudgay makes a killing trio. However two missings for the Owls, winger Jermaine Johnson and midfielder Tommy Miller.

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Brighton made a very good start of campaign. In the opening day, a great victory away to Swindon (2-1). Looked good as well in the second game dominating against Rochdale, but red card spoiled their plans and a draw at the end. However, Gus Poyet lads should be in the top half of the table at the end of season and no one will take them lightly. They’ll be without 3 important players. Defender Gordon Greer and midfielder Matt Sparrow are suspended, while another midfielder Alan Navarro is injured and will miss the game.

 

Wednesday, in my opinion, have better team than they had in Championship last year. I see them losing points in games where underestimate the opponents. Maybe it looks like a paradox, but Brighton’s seriousness will pull out the best from Wednesday. Home win.

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Bet: Sheff.Wed. -0.5ah

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

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More to follow...

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League One thoughts - one double and one gamble

I really would like Leeds to progress,they don't belong down there.But,there's something tragic in them in past couple of years.Few times they already were seen promoted and ended in tears.Wouldn't be surprised too much to see them wasting another season. Rovers are around 10.00 and worth a small gamble in my opinion.

Norwich and S'ton should finish the season in style and I'll take them in a double @ 1.85.

Strong bet could be Walsall at home vs MK Dons.Walsall are in run of four consecutive home wins.Dons are cut with injuries and suspensions and probably just wait to be over.In the previous round against Brighton (when I warmly suggested away win, bah),I think they had just 3 regulars and 40 years old coach in the team!However,I'm not sure should I go against them once again and will decide later.

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MK Dons - Brighton

Mk Dons are in the middle of the table, at 11th place. They’re in a very bud run of results as they haven’t won in last nine games (4 draws, 5 defeats). More important thing is injuries. In the previous round (at Leeds, 1-4), they hardly find eleven players to appear. To make the things even worse took care Doumbe, McCracken and Leven who got red cards and all three are suspended! So, Dons will have just three first-team regulars available, with the rest out through injury or suspension! Coach Alex Rae (40 years old) could start in midfield! Also, plenty of youngsters will get the chance.

Brighton are two places below Dons, but have been noticing very good results lately. They have two wins in a row, while their away record is fourth in the league (just 5 defeats of 22 games) and have one defeat on the road of last nine. Striker Glenn Murray is suspended after being sent off against Bristol Rovers last week, while full-back Inigo Calderon is injured. Striker Gary Hart has recovered and could appear.

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Even with the best team available for Dons, Brighton would be a slight favorite. Dons don’t have something to play for and just wait the end of the season. Brighton are motivated, I guess players are proving to boss Gus Poyet, but also will have a decent fans’ support. Expekt offer 2.20, away win.

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Just two for today. Am going out for a barbecue and cold drink. See you soon. Dule

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Thursday's gossip column

TRANSFER GOSSIP

Bayern Munich striker Luca Toni has edged closer to a move to West Ham after refusing to play for the German side's reserves.(Daily Mirror) 
Manchester United and Liverpool are battling it out for Real Sociedad winger Antoine Griezmann.(Daily Mirror) 
Aston Villa defender Curtis Davies will consider his future at the club in January over a contract row.(Daily Mirror) 
Sheffield United are handing a trial to French striker Vincent Pericard, who is a free agent. (Daily Mirror) 
Leeds are targeting Oldham winger Chris Taylor and are offering defender Alan Sheehan in exchange.(Daily Mirror) 
Notts County are hoping to pip Sheffield United and Coventry to the loan signing of Birmingham winger Gary McSheffrey.(Daily Star) 

OTHER GOSSIP

Portsmouth players will demand answers from new owner Sulaiman Al Fahim after they were not paid their wages this month.(The Sun) 

AND FINALLY

Liverpool defender Fabio Aurelio has revealed how manager Rafael Benitez erupted with fury like never before after their Champions League defeat to Fiorentina on Tuesday. (The Guardian) 
Middlesbrough defender David Wheater has conceded the Championship club, who were relegated from the Premier League in May, are struggling with the physical nature of life in English football's second tier and are also finding it hard to cope with 'flying elbows.'(Daily Mirror) 
Brighton defender Jim McNulty has been welcomed back to the squad after spending eight months on the sidelines following the removal of a kidney. (Daily Star)
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