League One betting, Bournemouth - Huddersfield 13:45 cet

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Bournemouth lost the pace when Eddie Howe left the club (for Burnley). They did secure the play-off, but crew doesn’t look like same as before. The Cherries have noticed only two wins out of last twelve matches, while the biggest concern for boss Bradbury is defence line that is still leaking too many goals (without a clean sheet in mentioned twelve). Bournemouth haven’t defeated today’s opponent in last 12 occasions (both at home and away).

Hudders are the biggest favorites in play-off and books offer 2.50-2.65 for their promotion. I can’t see how it’s better than backing them in all three games. However, they are in a pretty good shape as they have 25 games without a defeat. Also, Hudders have noticed six away wins in a row (including sides like Brighton and MK Dons) and scored 12 goals in last four games. Beside long-term injuries, boss Clark has a full squad available while loaned players all got clearance to feature.

The biggest favorites don’t always win, pressure certainly will be on them, last time they crashed under the weight of great expectations, could be down hearted for losing a direct promotion. No, not enough reasons even for a doubt. Hudders will go to Old Trafford (interesting, not Wembley). Home side in some scenario only could snatch a draw. I guess both to score is also a good bet (or 1-1 correct score could be nice gamble), but will back the visitors (with covering the draw).

More to follow... 

Bet: Hudders 0.0
Odd: 2.05 188bet
Stake: 8/10 
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Burnley - Millwall

Burnley under Eddie Howe became the serious play-off candidates, they are 3 points far but have two games in a hand. Since he took the charge, the Clarets have noticed six wins, two draws and only one defeat out of nine league games, have five wins out of last six and three in a row. Strikers Thompson and Paterson are out.

Millwall made a great win over QPR in the midweek, but their shape away from the Den is far from being impressive. They’ve noticed five defeats and a draw in last six games on the road and are winless since the middle of November (‘Boro 1-0). Midfielder Rowlands is back to the squad, but important defender Purse is suspended.

Home side has the best form in Championship, away side the worst on the road. Odd above even is very good price and I have no dilemma. Home win.

Bet: Burnley -0.5
Odd: 2.06 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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Cardiff - Burnley

Cardiff are holding a position for direct promotion, but have four clubs that are breathing on their neck (from those, Forest have a game in hand). They’re in a decent shape, won three of last four games, undefeated in six and have dropped only two points out of the last 15 at home. Whittingham and McNaughton should both return.

Since Eddie Howe took a charge, Burnley have made a decent run of results with three wins, draw and one defeat out of last five. Striker Charlie Austin will have a late fitness test, while midfielder Chris McCann stays sidelined. Burnley have conceded one goal in each of their last five matches and have six consecutive defeats at Cardiff.

At home, Cardiff are usually struggling against bottom sides. They hardly defeated miserable Scunny in previous round and noticed only draws against rest three of bottom four (Preston, Palace and Sheff Utd). Burnley will be confident and not so defensive, approach that absolutely suits to Cardiff. Home win. 2-0 correct score.   

Bet: Cardiff -0.5
Odd: 2.05 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

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FA Cup - 29.01.

Some interesting games in FA Cup. Post will be updating with new picks.

Burnley - Burton

Burnley are very strong home side (5th in Championship considering points at home) and probably they’ll be in chase for promotion (through play-off). New boss Eddie Howe, started to improve away record winning at Portsmouth (at the same beat terrible record against Pompey). This is first home game and he’ll probably try to keep the momentum.

Guys from Pirelli Stadium are fighting for their lives in League Two (58 places lower than Burnley) with probably the worst away record in English football (6 points of 9 games). They started to improve under new boss Peschisolido and in previous round shocked ‘Boro at home, but don’t think they’re even close to surprise here.

I’ll try with two bets. The Clarets are strong favourites in my opinion (despite it’s a Cup) and I expect at least two goals margin (with one, half stake is back). Other one is gamble in hoping players will continue to impress new boss. Pure instinct.  

Bet 1: Burnley -1.25
Odd: 1.74 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
 

Bet 2: Burnley -3ah
Odd: 5.75 bet365
Stake: 1/10
 

Watford - Brighton

Watford are the highest scorers in Championship with 52 goals(!) in 26 games and their last eight games (seven in league) went in over 2.5 (five were over 3.5). Last weekend’s defeat at Cardiff ended their run of seven consecutive wins (six in league)! Malky Mackay rotated players in previous round vs. Hartlepool and will probably do that again. Skipper Eustace is rated as doubtful and will probably be saved for the league.

Brighton are flying high in the League One and it seems they’re sure for direct promotion (six points more than 3rd Hudders and game in hand). They’re playing nice, passing game that usually produces goals. In 2011. (last six games), The Seagulls scored 15 times. They won five of the last six league and cup encounters, in previous round they eliminated Pompey and as Hornets they shouldn’t be lacking in confidence.

I guess both sides are hoping for progress. Wouldn’t dare to predict a winner, but I think we’ll be watching an entertaining game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Southampton - Bournemouth

Differently from previous season when they were playing without too much pressure (thankfully to 10 points penalty) and making some very good results, in this one Saints are one of the two main contenders for a direct promotion. They’ve noticed a bad start (0-1 at home, Plymouth), missing a lot of chances to score. Top scorer, Rickie Lambert, will miss another game, but attacking midfielder, Adam Lallana (20 goals in all competitions, last season), will start. Also, tonight’s opponent is local rival, from the same league and there shouldn’t be any under estimation. As I posted, Saints rarely lose in this round.

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Bournemouth progressed to the third tier and they’ll surely have a tough season. They’ve made some big signings (big for League One) that should allow them to be competitive. However they lost at South London vs. Charlton (which was expected), but the failure in the first home game (another promotion contender - Peterborough) could bring a pressure and problems. The biggest problem in League Two campaign was a limited number of players and squad depth. Simply, I think they have more important things to think about. Also, Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row. Boss Eddie Howe has almost all squad available. Midfielder Hollands and striker Symes are not fully fit and they’ll take some part in the game, more likely than to start.

 

Saints need to bounce back to return the self confidence (before Plymouth, lost at home vs. Reading 2-4 in pre-season). I think St Mary's will be a hard place to go this season, expect a strong display from home side and few goals.

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Bet: Southampton -1 ah

Odd: 2.05 Bet365

Stake: 8/10