Championship final, 5.50 gamble

Reading  - Swansea

I have same feeling for Reading, as I had for Posh. At the first glance two evenly matched sides, but formal hosts seem to have more tactical discipline and for me look better under the pressure. If we expect a nervy game, some advantage would go to them. Their away record shouldn’t be overlooked as well. Reading are without a defeat in league in last nine trips, in last four haven’t conceded (two of those were Leeds and Cardiff re-match). Swans defeated Millwall and made a heroic 10 men performance vs. Forest, but before that automatic promotion were lost on their away games. Two key men in my opinion are Shane Long (of course) and Nathan Dyer (very annoying lad when you bet against Swans). Five of last seven finals ended with 1-0. Shane Long have had a brilliant season, his top performance in the most important game should natural. He to score and Reading to win 1-0 is tasty 29.00. Second scoring option is Ian Harte (same bet for him is 67.00 at Victor Chandler). He already played Champions League semi, he’ll be calm and have scored 10 goals in 30 games for Reading!

After all no serious bet, it is 90mill game (they must be joking!) and it’s more feeling than the facts. Gamble for me would be Shane Long to score and Reading to win @ 5.50 (Paddy Power).

Sorry for late posting. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

Gamble: Long to score and Reading to win
Odd: 5.50 Paddy Power 
Stake: 1/10
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CL betting, Barcelona - Man Utd

I will continue with posting analyzes and tips during the summer, but certainly not on a regular base. Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

Last time, Ferguson tried to keep it tight and lost it pretty easily. Now, he says he’ll attack Barca. I expect something between, but certainly an open game. Guardiola will probably put Mascherano in central defence (to be shown a card is 2.30 at Paddy Power), idea is to protect from Chicharito’s speed. Then SAF could put Berbatov to get advantage in the air... I’ll stop on open game. First thought was to go on over 2.5 with very nice odds (currently 2.38 at 188bet), but it could be tricky if in the final scoreline at one moment is 1-1 where both sides could reduce a risk. In situation where United won’t be so defensive and Barca hopefully won’t have very bad day, I expect both sides to score.

A gamble would be Hernandez to score first. Mexican fella is star of the future (if not now) and I expect him to play an important role tonight.

Bet: Both to score
Odd: 2.05 Unibet
Stake: 8/10

Gamble: Hernandez to score 1st
Odd: 10.00 William Hill
Stake: 1/10 
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League One betting, Bournemouth - Huddersfield 13:45 cet

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Bournemouth lost the pace when Eddie Howe left the club (for Burnley). They did secure the play-off, but crew doesn’t look like same as before. The Cherries have noticed only two wins out of last twelve matches, while the biggest concern for boss Bradbury is defence line that is still leaking too many goals (without a clean sheet in mentioned twelve). Bournemouth haven’t defeated today’s opponent in last 12 occasions (both at home and away).

Hudders are the biggest favorites in play-off and books offer 2.50-2.65 for their promotion. I can’t see how it’s better than backing them in all three games. However, they are in a pretty good shape as they have 25 games without a defeat. Also, Hudders have noticed six away wins in a row (including sides like Brighton and MK Dons) and scored 12 goals in last four games. Beside long-term injuries, boss Clark has a full squad available while loaned players all got clearance to feature.

The biggest favorites don’t always win, pressure certainly will be on them, last time they crashed under the weight of great expectations, could be down hearted for losing a direct promotion. No, not enough reasons even for a doubt. Hudders will go to Old Trafford (interesting, not Wembley). Home side in some scenario only could snatch a draw. I guess both to score is also a good bet (or 1-1 correct score could be nice gamble), but will back the visitors (with covering the draw).

More to follow... 

Bet: Hudders 0.0
Odd: 2.05 188bet
Stake: 8/10 
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Newcastle – Arsenal

After the great start in Premier, the Toon started to slowing down. In the last 3 home games, they noticed just one point against the sides from the bottom side of the table (Blackpool, Stoke and Wigan) and in all of those 3 conceded twice. In the previous round, they defeated Chelsea at Stamford (reserve squad though) in the game where Chris Hughton made 10 changes in the team. Something like that, he already announced. Newcastle tonight will be mix of fringe players and youngsters. They also have a big derby clash on the corner, home against Sunderland and that’s another reason for first teamers not to be risked. The Toon have only one win against Arsenal in last 19 competitive games and haven’t won in last 7 Cup games (since 1952)!

The Gunners are travelling to the north in a great mood. They demolished City at weekend and boosted their self confidence. Also, some important players (Fabregas, Walcott,Bendtner, Denilson) have been recovered from the injuries. In the previous round in city derby, they eliminated Spurs away, in the game where Wenger rotated players (as usual), but because the number of players in rotation (and their quality) that squad is always more than respectable. Arsenal have good tradition in this competition, but probably more important reason is Wenger’s desire to win a silverware (or better to say, pressure on him to win it). And in situation where Spurs, Chelsea and Man City already finished their appearance in Cup, Arsenal are favorites to win it (beside Man Utd, of course).

This surely won’t be a walk at the St James Park for the Wenger’s kids. Newcastle beat Chelsea away with the same team that probably will be tonight. They gained a huge amount of self confidence and will put their best in this game. But, on the other side will be much more serious eleven than at Stamford. Arsenal are in big uptrend, want a trophy and this should be just one station on the road to Wembley. Beside away win, I expect some counter attack that should finish the job before the end of 90 minutes.

Bet: Arsenal -0.75
Odd: 2.13 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Rotherham United – Stevenage

In previous season, Rotherham lost at Wembley in the play-off final (Dagenham 2-3) and stayed in League Two. Since then, there were not too much changes in the team and the Millers remain as one of four contenders for the title. They made a decent start noticing just one defeat in opening 10 rounds, currently hold 3rd position and at home have 3 wins and 2 draws. Both draws were a little bit unlucky and while against devastated Bradford (0-0) didn’t manage to capitalize obvious superiority, against Burton lost 3-0 lead at the half time (3-3). Boss Moore rested his key players at Cup game during the midweek (win over Burton away), while skipper Cresswell backs to the team after missed 2 games following the death of his grandfather.

  

Stevenage are having a good start of their debut campaign in the fourth tier. They collected 13 points and are currently far from relegation zone. However, they still haven’t played against top league sides and all wins they noticed in games that should be six-pointers in the relegation battle (Stockport 3-1, Lincoln 1-0 and Hereford (4-1). Despite they don’t feel too much stress right now, Stevenage will face a tough battle for avoiding relegation. Their hope today will be on loan striker Chris Holroyd who scored 4 goals in first 3 games for the club (3 against Hereford). Skipper defender Roberts has been recovered from injury and could make a return, while midfielder Byrom and striker Boylan remain sidelined.

Don Valley is always a tough place to go for any league team, not just ex Conference side. Difference in quality and ambitions, home pitch and excellent (and rested) Adam le Fondre (9 goals in past 10 games) should simply be too much for Stevenage.

Bet: Rotheram -0.25
Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10

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Tottenham Hotspur - Portsmouth

Spurs are 4^th and thankfully to City’s failure against Everton, have two points advantage and they’re closest to CL spot. Second half in mid-week game vs. Fulham showed they can cope with the missings of some key players. They look very strong at home with 10 wins out of 15 games (2 draws and 3 defeats). I’m not concerned by the fact 2 of 3 defeats came from Stoke and Wolves (both were very, very lucky to win 1-0). Wolves thankfully to life display by goalie Myhill kept the clean sheet (0-0). Spurs attack in waves and look very safe and consistent. They have four competitive wins in a row at home and 3 of them were with 2 or more goals margin. Spurs’ target is Champions League, they’ll be focused and fully motivated. Very good news is Tom Huddlestone is returning to the squad. Some rumors say Defoe could play, but I don’t expect him in game except in case of negative result. Excellent Pavlyuchenko (9 goals in his last 8 appearances) is in doubt, but close to appear. Bassong, Palacios and Walker will have a late fitness test. Corluka is out along with Jenas, King and Lennon.

 

Nothing much to say about Pompey. They have no worries as they’re sure travelers to Championship. Big boost came from FA as they got a permission to sell the players before the regular transfer market. Players’ motivation will surely be higher, but on the other hand we can expect plenty of individual efforts in attempt to impress the scouts. They’re poor travelers, lost 11 out 14 games and scored just 8 goals (conceded 29). Their game against top sides all look the same, early conceded goal, heads down and few more goals till the end. They conceded 4 goals at Anfield and Emirates and 5 at Old Trafford ( 5 at home at mid week vs. Chelsea). Also, no one knows which players will appear as the injury/unavailable list looks endless. Belhadj, Ben Haim, Utaka, Boateng, Diop,Yebda, Dindane, O'Hara, Rocha, Smith. 10 players! The biggest miss is best player at the moment, Jamie O’Hara (have lost 6 out of 7 without him), who can not play against his parent club. Grant was disabled in intention to save the club from relegation, he’ll have a chance to do something in Cup on Wembley (also vs. Spurs) and maybe he’ll try to keep his cards as a secret. That should mean nothing else than easy defeat today.

 

To make a good result at White Hart Lane, team should have very strong defensive abilities. Pompey currently don’t look even competitive. Defensive line with James on goal (made a sensational error vs. Chelsea) doesn’t promise anything more than another defeat with big margin. My bet is -2 ah. Pinnacle offer 2.11.  

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Blackburn Rovers - Aston Villa

Rovers are in a winless run of eleven competitive games. Unofficially, Sam Allardyce got two more games to improve the things. First of them comes tonight against Villa and progress to Wembley could erase all the errors. First problem is Big Sam almost lost all support from the fans and players as well. His 4-5-1 formation, even at home, hasn’t brought too much good. Fans think team shouldn’t look such defensive at home, while even players don’t seem too much interested to change something. In my opinion there’s much bigger chance to Allardyce face the exit door after few more failures than to improve anything. Next obstacle for improvement is injury list that consist some very important players. Midfielder Grella and forward Roberts are ruled out, while striker Benni McCarthy and defender Givet remain doubtful. Also, key striker El-Hadji Diouf is absent through the suspension. This will be the second game this week, while third at Sunday when they’ll host Fulham is probably most imported. On all of this should be added bad mutual score against Villa, Rovers won just once in last eight games (draw also once and lost other six).

 

Aston Villa is in much better position than tonight’s opponent. They bounced back after two consecutive defeats in Premier (Arsenal away 0-3 and Liverpool at home 0-1) with a win against Blackburn in FA Cup (3-1 at Villa Park). That win should also bring some psychological advantage for tonight’s clash. Despite it is a Carling Cup, progress will bring a ticket to Wembley and unique chance for winning some trophy. In Premier League Villa look secure. With M.City, Tottenham and maybe even Liverpool, Champions League will remain just as dream. But, place for Uefa League is reachable, looks not so hard to achieve and they have a space to focus on this competition. This should mean the best team at Ewood tonight as O’Neill has confirmed. James Milner and Luke Young are both expected to recover from injury and both are set to be named in the squad. Only concern is defender Curtis Davies who remains on the sidelines due a lack of match fitness after recovering from a dislocated shoulder. Goalie Brad Guzan likely to continue his run of cup appearances in place of regular number one Brad Friedel.

 

Tonight, much more will depend from Villa than from Blackburn. Final at Wembley will surely be the guarantor for Rovers’ full motivation and effort. Problem for them is this also applies to the lads on the other side of the pitch. In my opinion visitors are favorites here, but the fact re-match will be played at their own ground makes from a scoring draw decent result. Considering all that I wrote, see dnb as a very good option for this game. Clear away win, however, remains as a gamble (2.47 at Pinnacle).

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England 5-1 Croatia

England secured qualification for next summer's World Cup in South Africa in the most emphatic style as they thrashed Croatia at Wembley.
The goalless stalemate between Belarus and Ukraine left England needing only a draw to confirm their place in South Africa - but they emphasised their progress under coach Fabio Capello with an outstanding display to record an eighth successive win of a flawless qualifying campaign. 
Croatia ended England's hopes of reaching Euro 2008 under Capello's predecessor Steve McClaren by winning at Wembley, but there was never any chance of a repeat in an encounter that was totally one-sided from the opening exchanges. 
England have taken huge strides forward under Capello since that rain-soaked night in November 2007 and the end of the McClaren reign, while Croatia are a pale shadow of the side Slaven Bilic brought to Wembley for their previous visit.
And the gulf in class between the two teams was immediately obvious - even taking into account the absence of Croatia's gifted playmaker Luka Modric. 

Tottenham winger Aaron Lennon made an early claim for a place on England's right flank in next summer's South African showpiece with an electrifying first 45 minutes that set the platform for victory.Even hard-to-please Capello cracked smiles in his technical area, while Bilic cut a miserable figure yards away as the scene of one of his greatest triumphs turned into a nightmare.

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England: Green, Johnson, Terry, Upson, Ashley Cole, Lennon (Beckham 80), Barry, Lampard, Gerrard (Milner 81), Rooney, Heskey (Defoe 60).
Subs Not Used: Foster, Brown, Bridge, Crouch. 
Booked: Terry. 
Goals: Lampard 8 pen, Gerrard 18, Lampard 59, Gerrard 66, Rooney 77. 

Croatia: Runje, Srna, Krizanac, Simunic, Pranjic, Mandzukic, Vukojevic, Pokrivac (Rakitic 45), Kranjcar, Eduardo (Klasnic 74), Olic (Petric 45).
Subs Not Used: Subasic, Drpic, Cale, Leko. 
Booked: Simunic. 
Goals: Eduardo 73. 

Att: 87,319 
Ref: Alberto Undiano Mallenco (Spain).
www.bbc.co.uk

England - Croatia

From the bad squad with good players, Fabio Capello made excellent squad with the same players. Seven wins in group 6 from same number of games and goal difference 22 (26 goals scored and just four conceded!) raised national confidence and public already expects a fight for the trophy in South Africa. Capello solved the problem in attacking line with Defoe and Heskey (beside Rooney), but goalkeeper position remains as the biggest problem. Robinson, Green and Foster (including veteran David James) are not the names that can be equal with the other lines in the team. And after Saturday’s friendly against Slovenia, Capello was thundering on defense line that allowed average visitors to make some goal opportunities and finally to score five minutes before the end. Also, the fact Rio Ferdinand is injured won’t help. Midfield is fantastic, as always. Only dilemma for Don Fabio is who will take a place on the right flank, Lennon, Wright-Phillips or Beckham. In attack will be Rooney and one of the mentioned duo Defoe-Heskey. With three points here, England would be theoretically in WC, one point should also do the job, but home side will have additional motive. Steve McClaren's England lost a crucial qualifier to Croatia at a sodden Wembley in November 2007 - a result that cost the team a place at the Euro 2008 finals. Despite Capello’s trying to reduce the tension, press in both countries just add a fuel into the fire. So, players should be motivated, focused and probably very nervous.

Croatia hold a second spot in group 6, with three points more than Ukraine (visiting Belarus in clash earlier today), but also a game more. They’re in position where tonight’s win would guarantee play-off spot (and fight for the first place), but defeat would bring a nightmare. In recent campaign, they have five wins, two draws, while the only defeat suffered from England at their home, Maksimir 1-4. At Saturday, they played not so good game against Belarus (1-0 at home) where visitors probably deserved a point, but Croats were with their minds already at Wembley. It seems Croatian side is consciously raising the pressure for this encounter, probably counting on some errors on the pitch that can cause. Even national coach Slaven Bilic involved in the press war, pointing that under the leadership of the Italian coach the team lost to English nature! However, visitors will miss some key players. Midfield playmaker Luka Modric is injured, while right-back Corluka got a red card at Saturday’s game. Regular goalie Pletikosa is also out. Bilic doesn’t talk too much about tactic, but he’ll surely try to use English weakness in back line where his fast forwards like Olic, Eduardo, Srna or Pranjic can make some escapes and mess. However, visitors know how to play games like this and they’ll fight till the limits of fanaticism and if the things go wrong surely won’t give up.

Both sides will go for three points, hosts want revenge, visitors ticket for World Championship. Highest motivation in combination with the highest pressure usually produces goals on the pitch. And both sides carry an attacking style of play, so over seems as a logic conclusion. 2.10 at Betway, 1.98 at Pinnacle. High stake.

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Chelsea 2-1 Everton

A stunning Frank Lampard strike ended Everton's resistance and ensured Chelsea's interim boss Guus Hiddink brought the curtain down on his brief spell in English football by collecting the FA Cup.
The Toffees had made a dream start when Louis Saha put them ahead after just 25 seconds - the quickest goal in Cup final history. 
But Chelsea came back strongly and equalised through Didier Drogba's header before Lampard fired home the winner from 25 yards with 18 minutes left. 
The margin of victory should have been greater as TV replays showed that Florent Malouda's spectacular strike moments later had crossed the line after bouncing down off the bar, but referee Howard Webb did not give the goal. 
In the end it made no difference to Chelsea, or Hiddink, who deservedly has a trophy to show for the impressive work he has done at Stamford Bridge as he returns to his job with Russia. 
Victory at a sweltering Wembley brings to an end the Dutchman's brief love affair with the Blues, which began when he watched from the stands as they beat Watford in the fifth round on Valentine's Day. 
And his side again demonstrated the patience and power he has instilled them as they fought back to overhaul a dogged Everton side that took the lead with a terrific early strike.

Chelsea: Cech, Bosingwa, Alex, Terry, Ashley Cole, Essien (Ballack 61), Mikel, Lampard, Anelka, Drogba, Malouda. 
Subs Not Used: Hilario, Ivanovic, Di Santo, Kalou, Belletti, Mancienne. 
Booked: Mikel, Lampard. 
Goals: Drogba 21, Lampard 72. 

Everton: Howard, Hibbert (Jacobsen 46), Yobo, Lescott, Baines, Osman (Gosling 82), Neville, Pienaar, Cahill, Fellaini, Saha (Vaughan 77). 
Subs Not Used: Nash, Castillo, Rodwell, Baxter. 
Booked: Hibbert, Neville, Baines. 
Goals: Saha 1. 

Att: 89,391. 
Ref: Howard Webb (S Yorkshire).
www.bbc.co.uk

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Lille 3 - 2 Nancy

1 - 0 R. Vittek  12. min.
2 - 0 A. Rami  15. min.
2 - 1 A. Ouaddou  42. min.
2 - 2 Y. Hadji  64. min.
3 - 2 N. Plestan  72. min.

A quick view on Monday

I stay behind my words and still think it was about the pride (Barcelona-Osasuna). Real M lost at home too, against Mallorca (1-3), but they weren't my concern. Both giants got a lesson from dignity from English four. Man.Utd., Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, although they didn't need the points, won their games and finish the season with a style. That's why Primera never will be Premier.

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Final at Wembley starts at 4pm. Burnley and Sheffield United contest a £60million winner-takes-all showdown for a place in the Premier League, in the richest club game in world football. The Clarets have full squad available, while Blades have a few injury concerns with doubts over Darius Henderson (Achilles), Jamie Ward (hamstring) and John-Joe O'Toole (ankle). Bookmakers learnt from their mistakes and this time don't underestimate Burnley, offering about 2.60 for their win (against Reading on the road, odds were about 4.70). United is the most consistent team in Championship, Burnley is mentally the strongest. Once again, I give a small advantage to Burnley and follow my instinct with a gamble bet. 888sport offers 2.70. Burnley to win.

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League One and Italians

Leeds failed again. Now they have to keep young talents in the club. Striker Jermaine Beckford (34 goals) and young midfielder Fabian Delph are now thought to be targets for Premier League clubs. Millwall scored from their first threat, booked a ticket for Wembley and now wait for the second finalist. A draw from the first match makes MK Dons a slight favorite (as Leeds was) against Scunthorpe Utd.. Visitors hardly reach play off, have four draws from last five games and defeated Dons this season, on the road. Home win is expected, but I don't think odds about 1.85 represent the risk and will skip this one. And again, away goals don't count. 

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I'm taking one day without betting, though Pisa, in Italian serie b, looks like a good pick. Will host Piacenza and desperately need three points to make a safe gap from the relegation zone. Three round left and nobody in Pisa wants to leave a status decision for a last game when they'll host Brescia. Piacenza is safe, but has six draws from the last seven games! When some league is in the finish (especially second league), I don't believe too much in fair play. Bwin offers 2.00 if You want to try, but my money stays in a wallet.

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New betting weekend is in front. Will be some analyzes and predictions. Stay tuned.

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Reading 0-2 Burnley (agg 0-3)

Spectacular strikes from Martin Paterson and Steven Thompson ensured Burnley defeated Reading to book a Championship play-off final tie against Sheffield United.
Leading 1-0 from the first leg, Burnley limited their opponents to precious few openings before two goals in seven decisive second-half minutes sealed victory for Owen Coyle's team. 
Marcus Hahnemann was powerless to stop Paterson's vicious 25-yard left-footed strike after 51 minutes. 
And the Reading keeper was equally helpless as Thompson's looping, opportunist strike from the left-hand corner of the penalty area went in off the crossbar minutes later. 
Burnley's 3-0 aggregate victory means that they are now one match away from a return to the top flight of English football after a 33-year absence.
The final will be the Clarets' 61st match of a long and adventurous season that saw them come within minutes of Wembley in the Carling Cup. 
Reading are left to reflect on a campaign that at one point suggested an immediate return to the Premier League but floundered on a dramatic loss of form at home over the closing months of the season.

Reading: Hahnemann, Rosenior, Pearce, Duberry, Harding, Kebe (Kitson 53), Gunnarsson, Matejovsky (Stephen Hunt 52), Tabb, Church (Little 53), Long. 
Subs Not Used: Federici, Cisse. 
Booked: Duberry, Kitson, Long. 

Burnley: Jensen, Duff, Carlisle, Caldwell, Kalvenes, Elliott (Eagles 84), Alexander, McCann, Paterson (Gudjonsson 71), Thompson (Rodriguez 79), Blake. 
Subs Not Used: Penny, McDonald. 
Booked: Kalvenes, Elliott. 
Goals: Paterson 51, Thompson 58. 

Att: 19,909 
Ref: Mike Riley (Yorkshire).
www.bbc.co.uk

Sheffield United - Preston North End

Semi-final, play-off, re-match. First game ended 1-1 and that result set the home side as a favorite for the final. As it was expected, we watched a tough game at Deepdale. Blades put very solid performance, started with attacking attitude with a clear intention to finish the job in the first game. Jamie Ward missed a big opportunity to took his team in a lead and punishment came in 20th minute after a tragic mistake by defence line. Blades consolidated after that and in the rest of the game were the better side. Midfielder Brian Howard scored at the start of the second half and just thankfully to not-serious reactions of Craig Beattie (twice), result stayed the same. Tonight full Bramall Lane will support the lads who are in clear advantage. I think that Blades deserved a direct promotion, they're the most quality team in play-off, mentally very strong and they are the main candidate to reach Premier. But, to make a situation not so perfect, there are some injury problems for Kevin Blackwell. John-Joe O'Toole is injured, while Darius Henderson, Jamie Ward and David Cotterill are under the serious doubt.

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Lillywhites made their run into play-off zone with four wins from last four league games. In the first game, excellent left-back Sean St.Ledger scored for a lead, team played with 100 percent of potential, making even some opportunities for double it. But, it has to be said, it wouldn't be fully deserved. Their performance is not consistent, play in warm-cold shape. They lost at home, for example, against Blackpool 0-1, but in the next home game humiliated Cardiff 6-0! Their progression would be a first class surprise, but if the host underestimate them everything is possible. That's the beauty of play-offs, however. Lee Williamson is missing as he completes a three-game ban, while Richard Chaplow and Michael Hart remain on the injured list.

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This is a play-off, I don't believe in underestimating, though won't be an easy game surely. I expect a cautious game in the first half (and will place a gamble ht/ft, X-1), but don't doubt we'll watch the Blades at Wembley (and in Premier, next season). Bwin offers 1.90. Home win.

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