Premier League and Championship betting, 24 March

Norwich City - Wolverhampton
Norwich are in a sort of downtrend with three defeats and one draw out of last four in the league. However, their season looks absolutely fine (their last three seasons, actually) and they still have a chance to finish in the top-half (8th Swans have just three points more). Good news is Anthony Pilkington is back.
Wolves’ board probably had different plans with sacking McCarthy, but after they didn’t attract any serious name Terry Connor was a forced solution. In his four games in charge, Wolves have conceded 14 goals and looked pretty clueless in front (scored 2). Their confidence is certainly not a sky high, they remind me on Pompey few seasons ago and I wouldn’t be surprised if their free fall continues and just stay at the bottom.

Bet: Norwich -0.75

Odd: 2.06 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 7/10

Reading - Blackpool
Reading noticed a shocking midweek defeat at the hands of Posh, but at Madejski have five consecutive wins and nine out of last ten with goal diff. 18-4! They will miss striker, Jason Roberts (B’pool will miss Roman Bednar).
The Seasiders have only one win out of last five in the league and lost on their last two trips against not so impressive sides - Derby and Peterborough.
Backing a winning horse, here.

Bet: Reading
Odd: 1.95 (888sport)
Stake: 8/10

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FA Cup betting, Norwich - Leicester

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Lambert stated that Premier League status is their prime objective, but the fact is they’re 8^th with eleven points above the line and next league game is for eight days. Leicester are safe from relegation in Championship and nine points far from play-off. It looks like both sides could have a push for Cup competition. Both sides also have enough fire power and they probably wouldn’t like to play a repeat game. I expect an open match and go for goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 9/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Newcastle

Norwich haven’t kept a single clean sheet of 14 games, they have conceded more goals than any other team outside the bottom three and only Bolton have allowed their opponents more shots on goal. Their seven home games have produced 22 goals (average 3.14)!

The Toon are also free scoring (and free conceding) side. Seven of their last nine matches in Premier produced three or more goals and they’ve conceded seven goals in last three. For this particular game, Alan Pardew will have plenty of problems with his defence line. Steven Taylor and Mike Williamson are out and Fabricio Coloccini is a serious doubt.

While I fancy Norwich for this one, the fact is both sides have leaky defences and pretty strong attacks. Goals should be only logic conclusion.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 (Interwetten)
Stake: 8/10
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Premier League Betting, Norwich - Arsenal

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Sort of obvious pick. Norwich have conceded in each of their home games (no clean sheet in any of 12 games this season), they play attacking football and three of their last four games produced four or more goals. Remind me on Blackpool last year.

Arsenal’s last seven matches in league were overs, while their five on the road produced 28 goals! Differently from the start of the season, they look pretty well and should be big favorites today. Additionally, Wenger made a deal with Dutch coach Van Persie to be rested against Germany and he’s fully fit. Arsenal have scored 13 goals in their last three meetings with Norwich.

Goals for me.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.21 (188bet)
Stake: 8/10
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Watford - Norwich

Watford have lost three games in a row (‘Boro, Coventry and Hull) and seems already gave up from a play-off spot. They are on my black list, simply they win when nobody wants them to win. And this is game just like that, they have no real motivation, but can play fully relaxed and score. When we talk about scoring, Watford at home have unreal average of 3.2 goals per a game (36-28 goal difference at 20 games). No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

Norwich, on the other hand, are fighting for a direct promotion. They’re second with a point more than Welsh duo Cardiff and Swans. In the previous round, they suffered a heavy defeat at Swans 0-3 and ended a run of nine games without defeat. Interesting fact is, under Paul Lambert (since August 2009), they haven’t made a two defeats in a row. On the other hand, they have bad record against tonight’s hosts. Norwich won just once in last seven occasions (both at home and away) and lost five of them. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is rated as in doubt.

I expect from Norwich to bounce back and they should be closer to win. And when Watford are losing (same when winning) they do it in series. But, also expect an open game with both sides scoring. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 various
Stake: 8/10
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Leicester - Norwich

Leicester did lose at North London against QPR, but actually were the better side and missed two sitters before conceded a late loser. They’re now big five points far from a play-off zone and will be certainly looking for all three points. Interesting fact is they haven’t failed to score at Walkers since SG Eriksson took the charge, 13 games and total of 30 goals! No injury worries, same squad is available.

Norwich have noticed only a draw against poor Preston side, mainly because their relaxed attitude (in previous at home, also drew against another poor side Doncaster). They’re in much better position than the hosts, but missed the opportunity to occupy second spot. They also have an interesting fact and it is Norwich have never made two consecutive defeats under Paul Lambert (88 games)! If we consider 1-1 against Preston as a defeat (I think it’s fair), their good performance is in front. Also, only QPR took more points on the road, they have scored in 10 of last 11 away games (in 31 of 35, both at home and away).Defender Whitbread is doubt, Edwards could make a first start and replace him.

Leicester are probably closer to win, but I think goals would be a better call. First game on Carrow Road ended 4-3, this one also smells on high scoring affair. Both to score should be the second option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Barnsley - Norwich

Barnsley are a decent host at Oakwell, with 8 wins, five draws and three defeats against top sides Burnley, Cardiff and Leicester. However, they’re in the middle with same distance from play-off and relegation zone and very likely will finish at the same place. Despite their good result at Leeds for the weekend, their recent shape isn’t something special (two points of possible 12). Just two wins out of last eight games in the league, against poor Preston and Donny. Skipper Foster and midfielder Colace will remain sidelined. Another two midfielders, Doyle and Mellis will face a fitness test.

Norwich are flying high at 5th position, they lost just one game of last 12 and their play-off ambitions looks reasonable. However, they only drew at home in midweek encounter against Donny which was everything but expected. Seventh Leicester have an easy game against Coventry at home and Norwich needs the points to keep the distance. They haven’t lost against Barnsley in last 10 occasions (both at home and away) and despite I don’t pay too much attention on history results, this record could have a serious affect on the self-confidence (of both sides). No injury worries for Paul Lambert.

Usually I have some problems to opposite Barnsley at Oakwell, but this time really fancy Norwich to bounce back and win. Bigger ambitions, more motivation, better shape and surely better squad. I’m pretty sure they won’t lose.

Bet: Norwich 0.0
Odd: 1.88 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
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Championship - Feb 22

I'm very busy, so just a pick. Tomorrow, maybe one more.
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Championship 

Norwich - Doncaster

Bet: Norwich -1ah
Odd: 1.85 Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10

Championship

Derby - Hull

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Two teams going in opposite directions. Derby are winless in last seven games, one win of last 13 (against bottom side Preston), nine defeats in those 13 and somehow managed to lose at Crawley in FA Cup. Hull are without a defeat in last eight, Matty Fryatt is top class signing in my opinion and I can see them extending this good run of results.

Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 2.11 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Results, statistic and New Year

Best wishes, lads!

WBA- Blackburn 1-3 LOST
Norwich - Sheff Utd 4-2 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Promised previews

So, here’re brief analyzes.

WBA - Blackburn

The hosts are probably the most underrated side in Premier. They don’t play bad at all, at Bolton created plenty of chances to score. Brunt hit the post at 0-1 and they lost at the end. Bad news is (only one bad)  mentioned Brunt is suspended due to fifth booking.

Hard times for Blackburn, thankfully to Indian owners. Allardyce’s departure was a big shock to the players and they responded badly with one point from two home games. Even with him, their away record was very bad. Best defender Samba said he wants to leave the club and Steve Kean has removed him from the squad! Maybe it’s too early for big conclusions, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rovers relegated at the end. 

Home win.

Norwich – Sheff Utd

Norwich are a decent side, especially at home and important for this game is they didn’t play for a Boxing Day. Only defeat in last eight games was at home vs. Pompey that media called a robbery. Defender Leon Barnett is suspended, while right back Russel Martin and midfielder Wes Hoolahan are in doubt. Norwich also have very good record against United at home as they won in six of last seven games (five with a goal margin).

United not just played a game two days ago, but also suffered a shocking home defeat against Hull (conceded in additional time). I am not sure how they can recover physically and mentally. Besides that, Blades already lost every credibility as play-off contender and I can’t see them higher than middle of the table. 

Another home win.

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Norwich - Sheff Utd

Again, just a pick.
Later I'll wrote explanations for both games. So if you're interested in reasoning, come back little later. Cheers.

Bet: Norwich -0.5
Odd: 1.91 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend's results

My betting weekend in one sentence. Barnsley and Chelsea were extremely unlucky to not book the three points, Berbatov went insane, Norwich were great, Everton disgusting.

Barnsley - Watford 0-0  1/2 LOST
Man Utd - Blackburn 7-1 WON
Everton - WBA 1-4 LOST
Norwich - Ipswich 4-1 WON
.....................................................Newcastle - Chelsea 1-1 LOST

Updated statistic and list of bets.
Still deep in red.

Maybe one bet, little later.

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Bets for Sunday

No time for writing analyzes, just picks.

Premier League, Newcastle - Chelsea
Bet: Chelsea -0.75
Odd: 2.02 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

Championship, Norwich - Ipswich 
Bet: Norwich -0.25
Odd: 1.88 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday's results and statistic update

Good night after all. I was so annoyed when Colchester turned the game from 0-1 to 2-1 and then conceded for a draw. Then I paid attention on the other results... Complete chaos! I wasn't even thinking about Cardiff and QPR, but plenty of shocking results. Leeds, Nott Forest, Bristol Rovers, Hudders, Rotheram, Peterborough... Last 3 weeks in England are real mine field. But... Most important thing. My September is green, finally!!! Yes!

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina  3-0  WON

Colchester - Dag & Red  2-2  LOST

Norwich - Leicester  4-3  WON

Statistic:

September
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +1.65%

Season
Profit: +27.18 units Yield: +12.11%

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Norwich – Leicester

Despite the defeat in previous round (Hull at home, 0-2), Norwich have been noticing an encouraging start of the season. Sixth spot and play-off zone are something that guarantee they’ll be fully motivated (as long as Premiership dream lasts). Against Hull they were much better rival, but in last 10 minutes conceded twice and noticed very unlucky defeat. My assumption is they’ll be very eager to bounce back tonight. Midfielder Surman and defender Nelson are still out, while defenders Whitbread and Smith have returned to the full training.

Leicester’s current shape is at least embarrassing. Instead play-off spot, they’re keeping the bottom of the table with just 5 points of 8 games. On the road just a single point and goal difference 4-13, after they suffered real humiliation at Portsmouth (1-6). Sousa’s manager position isn’t stabile at all. Seems he couldn’t imply the system with tight defense that was successfully bringing results in Swansea. Oppositely, Leicester’s back line looks vulnerable, conceding large amounts lately. Chairman Mandaric has said he gives his full support to Sousa.  Usually, such statements mean opposite. Players possess enough quality for the top half of the table and certainly don’t enjoy when Portsmouth make a laugh of them. I’m sure Sousa’s departure is very close, maybe even tonight. Defender Miguel Vitor is suspended after red card.

 

Leicester won’t be relegated, that’s sure, but better results will come when they make a cut. Currently they look like a sinking boat. Hosts believe their Saturday’s defeat was a robbery, now are preparing a strong response.  

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Bet: Norwich -0.25 
Odd: 2.08  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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A decent day and profit

Millwall 3 - 2 Swindon T.  WIN

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Blackpool 2 - 1 Nottingham F.  WIN

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Norwich C. 0 - 2 Carlisle U. 

Southampton 3 - 1 Southend U.  LOSE

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Leeds U. 2 - 1 Bristol R.  LOSE

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League One thoughts - one double and one gamble

I really would like Leeds to progress,they don't belong down there.But,there's something tragic in them in past couple of years.Few times they already were seen promoted and ended in tears.Wouldn't be surprised too much to see them wasting another season. Rovers are around 10.00 and worth a small gamble in my opinion.

Norwich and S'ton should finish the season in style and I'll take them in a double @ 1.85.

Strong bet could be Walsall at home vs MK Dons.Walsall are in run of four consecutive home wins.Dons are cut with injuries and suspensions and probably just wait to be over.In the previous round against Brighton (when I warmly suggested away win, bah),I think they had just 3 regulars and 40 years old coach in the team!However,I'm not sure should I go against them once again and will decide later.

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Millwall – Swindon

Calculation is simple for both sides, a win in this game would lead them to Championship if Leeds fail to win (Millwall would also be second if Leeds lose with two or more goals margin). Millwall entered a bad run of results in the worst possible time. Have just one win in last four games (three were on the road though) and missed the chance to use Leeds failure in the previous round. However, at home have just one defeat of 22 games (5 draws) with impressive goal difference 45-13. Eight home wins and a draw of last nine! And interesting thing is they’ve had much more problems against bottom sides than against top clubs. They defeated Norwich, Leeds, Charlton, Huddersfield, Colchester, but only lost came from second bottom side Wycombe and drew vs. Carlisle, Yeovil, Brighton, Brentford (5th was S’ton)! Striker Steve Morison is struggling with a hamstring problem.

Swindon have had a great season, but as Millwall made a bad run of results in bad time and lost second spot. Just one win of last five (also one defeat though). In the previous round defeated Brentford 3-2, but three consecutive draws against bottom sides before that (Exeter, Walsall and Wycombe) and 0-3 defeat vs. Colchester. It seems they’re losing the breath, but certain problem will be lack of experience of playing the games like this. At New Den will be without striker Vincent Pericard and midfielder Kurt Hammonds, while winger Alan O'Brien should appear. 

This will be a real fight on the pitch. Millwall lost their chance in the previous round and now will play without too much pressure. A win could promote them, but in worse case (if Leeds win) will bring them good position (3rd) for the play-off. My prediction is tough game and win by one goal. 188bet offer 2.09, home win.

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Saturday's failure and Sunday's double

Newcastle U. 2 - 2 Ipswich T.  LOSE

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Norwich C. 2 - 0 Gillingham  WIN

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Peterborough U. 0 - 1 Blackpool  DRAW

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Arsenal 0 - 0 Manchester C.  LOSE

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Bad day. Today I have a hangover and terrible headache. So, will keep it easy. Everton and Roma, double.

Thank you to all for visiting.

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Norwich City – Gillingham

The Canaries made a great victory in the previous round, beating Charlton away 1-0. Now, need just one point to be League One champions. Carrow Road has been sold out, players will get the medals and trophy after the game (if they draw at least, of course). Norwich are the best home side in the league, noticed 16 wins of 21 home games with impressive goal difference 46-20. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is injured and will probably miss the game, but skipper and top goal scorer Grant Holt (24 goals) returns after serving a two-game ban. Boss Paul Lambert got one match touchline ban.

Gillingham made a first class surprise defeating Leeds last Saturday, scored three times for the first half an our (3-2 at the end). They made a distance from a relegation line (3 points with 3 rounds left) and can play with little less pressure. Good thing is in last two rounds, they’ll host the Saints (who gave up from play-off) and will visit Wycombe (will probably relegate till then) at the last day. So, they have very good chance to stay in the league. On the other hand, they’re the worst travelers in the third tier, noticed just six points (six draws) of 21 games on the road with shocking goal difference 13-44 and didn’t score in six of last seven! Skipper Barry Fuller faces surgery to repair a broken nose and is likely to miss out, defender Gowling serves the suspension and another defender Richards with a broken toe is long-term absentee.

Norwich is top class team, now finally can play without any sign of pressure and I expect a very good game from them. The Gills are simply too poor to spoil the celebration. Intention to maybe snitch a one point will probably bring them few more goals conceded. Bet is -1.25ah at 1.93, Pinnacle.

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