Cardiff - Portsmouth

It seems Welsh lads have learnt the lesson from previous years, when in this part of the season were blowing away their promotion chances. They have three wins in a row, with a fourth would come back to the second place. They last five games produced 20 goals and Cardiff have an average of one conceded goal in home games (Pompey’s average is one scored goal per away game). Stephen McPhail is in doubt, Chopra is out. Today’s win would be the first double over Pompey since 1971.

In February and March, Portsmouth made a run of six consecutive wins (without a single goal conceded) and secured a Championship status. After that, just one win of next six encounters. In the previous round, suffered an unexpected defeat at home against Coventry. Playing at Cardiff is always a good motivation, but there won’t be any pressure. Hayden Mullins is out.

I have impression that 1.55 for a home win doesn’t represent the real risk. Expect Pompey to score and to push the game in the over. Goals for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.90 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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Cardiff City- Blackpool

Cardiff go in this game after two disaster results. First lost more than unlucky at home against strugglers Plymouth (0-1) than faced even bigger shock on the road vs. another strugglers Peterborough. After excellent first half and high 4-0 lead, Welsh side allowed to concede four times and let two points gone with the wind. Those two games weren’t played badly and it’s more crisis of results than performances, but interesting fact is their bad results always come in series of 4-5 games. Last season finished under the play-off zone instead direct promotion thankfully to three loses and a draw in last four rounds, this season also had two such runs, in September five defeats from six games and in November three consecutive defeats. Bad luck should only boost their morale, but the fact their complaints about the luck came after the games against two probably worst squads in the league calls on caution. Also, conceding four goals from Posh for one half is disgrace. And after that confidence of defense line can’t be to high. No problem with injury players as all that have been in doubt are expected to be fit.

 

Thankfully to manager Ian Holloway, Seasiders are (beside Forest) the biggest surprise of the season so far. They started recent campaign as one of main contenders for relegation, but they’re currently at 8^th place with just three points less (and two games less from most other clubs) of play-off zone. With limited budget, Holloway is pulling the maximum from existing players. They also have gained a large amount of self confidence, actually liking to be underdogs. Already ruined Boro at Riverside (3-0). Few days later, also on the road, were defeated against Ipswich but put another open performance and after that in third consecutive game on the road defeated Derby 2-0. New year started with a defeat in Cup, for them not important competition. I have no doubt they see their chance against confused hosts. However, Holloway will have to cope with missings of his two key defenders, Ian Evatt and Rob Edwards, who are both suspended. Blackpool have scored in all of their last eight matches and have failed to score only three times this season.

 

I’ve been thinking about this encounter since I saw the schedule. Cardiff, although very strong side look very inconsistent lately. Bad results for them come in the waves, while defense was trashed by the weakest side in the league. Visitors through the season look very dangerous with Charlie Adam in a great shape. Pitch is in perfect condition thankfully to undersoil heating and won’t limit pass play. Both clubs have very strong attacks, but also problems in back lines. I expect another open game and goals on both sides. 1.96 at Pinnacle. Over.

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Cardiff City - Plymouth Argyle

After November run of four games without a win, Cardiff have noticed three consecutive league wins against top league sides (Preston, WBA and Middlesbrough). Considering team’s quality, in my opinion they’re just behind Newcastle and with injury crisis that has been ended, they should continue climbing on the table. Hosts are almost at full strength, Mcphail (cancer) is the only first team absentee, while on-loan forward Kelvin Etuhu should be fit. Cardiff are not prone to underestimating, no problem with pitch condition and full squad should guarantee good home display. In five home wins, just one (Preston 1-0) finished with one goal margin.

 

Visitors are in completely different position. Trip to Wales came after five consecutive league defeats with not a single goal scored! They’ve represented themselves in previous 21 rounds as a poor side and moving to the third tier looks like clear reality. They’ll try to defend with 10 players as usual, but if concede early goal, this game could turn into nightmare. Boss Paul Mariner has lots of worries to patch the defense line as right and left back, Shane Lowry and David Gray, have returned to their parent clubs after their loan periods have been finished. Third defender, Darcy Blake, is on loan from Cardiff and can not play against them. Also, Plymouth have more important game at Monday when they’ll host Reading.

 

This should be a clear home win. The facts that call on caution is Cardiff also have a game at Monday (visit Peterborough) and probably will try to keep some strength. This, however shouldn’t mean they’ll risk three points with possible keeping of the minimal lead. Second fact is, even if they concede a goal in early stage I don’t think Plymouth will show some intentions to attack, they’ll just try to concede not too many. Home handicap win.

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Motherwell - Llanelli

Motherweell made a big improvement in past few years, making their way to the top Scottish clubs. Last season was under the expectations. Club finished the regular part of the season at the seventh place and played in play-out group. They didn’t reach a European qualification spot in domain competition, but got the fair-play invitation for UEFA Europa League. Motherwell have to start right from the beginning. In the previous European campaign, they promptly crashed out in the first round to AS Nancy of France. After many years in the club, manager Mark McGhee left the bench and went to Aberdeen. His place took the former Stockport manager, Jim Gannon. Another missing will be excellent striker David Clarkson who went to Bristol City, but Gannon made his first signing in ex-Tranmere midfielder Steve Jennings. This game will be played at Airdrie FC stadium as their home ground is closed because changing the grass. Despite they’ll have to start without any pre-season fitness work done, Motherwell is a clear favorite here.

Llanelli is the small amateur club from Wales, who qualified for Europa League – Qualification after they finished at the second place in domain league. As the preparation for this game, they defeated first division club Afan Lido 4-0. A few days before, club made a big signing, ex Swansea’s left back Michael Howard and he’s expected in the first eleven. But the “main face” in the club is their player-manager Andrew "Andy" Legg (42 years old). He is known for having the longest throw-in in football, being able to regularly throw the ball over 30 metres. He once held the world record with 41 m! Legg is raising the team’s morale and saying to Welsh press they’re not afraid, will try to make Motherwell run and to threat from the counter-attacks. The problem is, only eleven experienced players will be available to him. However, I expected more than defensive attitude from Llanelli, with probably ten players on 30 metres from the own goal. 

It is the fact Motherwell have much more quality. But also, facts are they’re with new coach, without the best player, game won’t be on their ground and they’ve just started with the preparation for new season. I expect hard defence from the visitors and think they can resist first 45 minutes. So, with the small bet I go for a home win, but after the draw at the half-time. Odds are around 5.00.
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Wales 0-2 Germany

Germany took another ominous step towards the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™ but at least Wales' youngsters were not humiliated at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. 
Wales boss John Toshack can at least be thankful for that small mercy after the soul-searching which followed Saturday's embarrassing home defeat to Finland, but the points in World Cup Group 4 were always heading to a Germany side which was never stretched.
Germany took the lead after just 11 minutes when Ballack unleashed a swerving drive from 30 yards that crashed into the top corner past Wayne Hennessey. 
To their credit Wales side were running and fighting for every ball as the Germans' passing game threatened to overrun them.

After an encouraging first half Wales did not need a stroke of bad luck just three minutes into the second period. Collins had held up Gomez on the right and looked to have run the ball out but the Stuttgart striker kept the ball in. His low cross to the near post was then stabbed past Hennessey by Williams' out-stretched boot for Germany's second.

www.fifa.com

Wales - Germany

In the previous round Wales lost at home against Finland (hope I won't offence anybody, but too old and limited squad) 0-2. It was the end WC dreams. In one moment it seems Wales has young and talented players, they were good in defeats against in group (Russia 1-2 and Germany 0-1, both away) but two wins (both at home against weak Azerbaijan 1-0 and weaker Liechtenstein 2-0) from five games show their lack of quality. Just one well known player Craig Bellamy isn't enough for WC. John Toshack has given up, said that they're not competent to play even with middle class European teams. I don't know too much about their starting eleven, but does it matter?!

Visitors are in very good shape and it seems they return on the "old roads of glory". From five games they lost only two points, Finland 3-3 away, but there are no space for relaxing, Russia breaths on the neck and German lads still have to travel to Moscow. Mario Gomez started Liechtenstein game along Podolsky, but fans were frustrating by his performance, he didn't score in 13 games in a row! Low announced that he will get the last chance tonight.

This game looks like the pick of the day. Odds are not too big, most of the bookies offer 1.40-1.45, at Expekt is 1.42, but it look like a gift. Use it!

I'm thinking about some other games. Scotland,Ecuador and Serbia to win, N.Ireland,Spain and BiH over. Will decide about my bets. And maybe one more analyze,later. Stay tuned.