Aston Villa - Man City

Villa are first above the relegation line with same points as Wigan. I think the market is overreacting on Bent’s arrival. First, he (probably) won’t start bagging the goals immediately. Second, I think he’s hardly overpaid and I’m not so sure it is a huge boost to the rest of the squad. The Villans have only one win of last 10 league games, haven’t kept the clean sheet in last 12 and defeated City just twice in 13 league games at Villa Park. Adding on that Gerard Houllier as manager, I wouldn’t be too optimistic. Good news is Ashley Young returns, bad (?) Heskey is suspended.

City are in a great shape with five wins and a draw (at Emirates) in last six Premier games. They also have superb record on the road with 21 points collected (just Arsenal have taken more). Whatever Mancini has been saying, I think Citizens are title contenders and failure in winning any silverware this season would bring an axe for him. Maybe that’s why he named a strong squad against Leicester in Cup game, but as long as Tevez is fit I don’t care too much about their available players. Silva or Johnson on the wing? Who really cares? Both are superb players. Mancini rested Barry, Dzeko, De Jong and Kolo Toure, all are back in contention. City have lost only twice against Villa of last 18 games, in all competitions, both at home and away (12 wins).

I think the price on City is simply too good to be refused. If they want the title they have to win games like this. Both of they away defeats came against mediocre teams (Wolves and Sunderland) and I hope they learnt the lesson.

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 1.98 Canbet, 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Manchester City – Arsenal

Citizens are having a good start of the campaign, 17 points from 8 games and lie currently at the 2^nd place. I still believe they have no serious chance for a title, but as far as they believe in it they’ll be giving their best. And the best from such paid players could be really terrific. They don’t lack in confidence as Chelsea have already be beaten at home soil. Few injury worries for Mancini, but considering quality of full squad they could be characterized as minor. Kolo Toure will face a late fitness test and Kolarov is still out. Mario Balotelli is finally fit and will have a place on the bench.

The Gunners are playing another season that looks like one before. Wenger’s kids are great talents, Cesc is one of the best World’s players, Arshavin one of the most dangerous, they all have a great pace… But beside more experience, they really need more strength. Physically, they’re far below the top Premier sides which cause plenty of problems in the midfield tackles and in aerial challenges. And that again, with the lack of counter attack opportunities, brings defeats in the big games. Also, Wenger has some serious problems with injuries in the defense line. Almunia is long term absent and Fabianski is all except safe goalie that gives security to four players in front of him. Then, center backs, Koscielny and Vermaelen are injured (Sagna is back though). So, not so impressive defense will have to cope with two top shape “beasts”, Tevez and Adebayor. Beside mentioned, midfielder Jack Wilshere is suspended. Arsenal have won one of their last eight Premier League away games and have not kept a clean sheet in their last 15 league and cup away games.

I’m well surprised with the odds here. In my opinion, bookmakers have exaggerated Arsenal’s Champions League performances. This is something else, trip to Manchester is probably the hardest they’ll have this season. Chelsea made a five points margin yesterday and Mancini wouldn’t be satisfied with a point here. Home win.

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Manchester City - Blackburn

After 125 mill pounds spent during the summer, City started the season of great expectations with a win, draw and a loss. And while opening draw at Spurs wasn’t a big failure, demolishing L’pool was the great confidence boost, then real shock came at Sunderland (0-1 defeat). Considering circumstances and 94^th minute penalty, dressing room atmosphere is still good. They look very good defensively, that was the only goal conceded in 5 competitive games this season, while their attacking potential looks terrific. Mancini’s only concern is Tevez who will face a late fitness test (considering odds movement, he’ll be on the bench). Balotelli will be out for a while, Boateng will wait for a debut, while Micah Richards is fit again.

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Blackburn is a hard working side consisted from just average players, but with the leadership of (in my opinion) one of the best managers. They have enough quality to avoid struggling, but I can see a mid table position as their greatest possible achievement. As always majority of their points will come from home games, while on the road will be playing for a goalless draws. Under Big Sam, in first season they won just 4 away games of 19 and scored 18 goals, in second (last one) won miserable 3 and scored 13! In previous season, against all top sides (including Everton, Villa, Fulham and Stoke) except L’pool they lost with 2 goals margin at least. Defender Olsson is only doubt, while ex City striker Mwaruwari could have his debut.

 

I said once, I’ll be backing City as long as they feel as contenders for a title. They have a great potential and things will be fine as long as there’s good atmosphere. At Sunderland, they got a smack right in the mouth. They treat it as a bad luck and still believe they can win the title. So, let them believe. 

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Bet: Man City -1.25

Odd: 2.16 188bet

Stake: 8/10

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dark saturday

Chelsea 2-4 Man City

Manchester City inflicted Chelsea's first home Premier League defeat this season in a game which began with Wayne Bridge refusing John Terry's handshake.
Frank Lampard's low strike put Chelsea ahead but Carlos Tevez equalised after a long ball was not dealt with, before Craig Bellamy shot beyond Hilario. 
Tevez scored a penalty after Juliano Belletti saw red for a trip on Gareth Barry before a Bellamy tap-in. 
Michael Ballack also saw red and Lampard scored a consolation penalty. 
City had failed to score in their previous seven visits to Stamford Bridge, while Chelsea had only conceded eight at home in the Premier League all season. 
But those statistics were rendered meaningless on an afternoon of triumph for City coach and former Inter Milan boss Roberto Mancini, who pitted his wits in the Premier League for the first time against ex-AC Milan manager Carlo Ancelotti. 
City saw their hopes of silverware this season ended by their FA Cup defeat at Stoke in midweek but they boosted their prospects of a top-four finish by completing the double over Chelsea for the first time since 1957.
With Manchester United not in league action this weekend, victory would have taken Chelsea four points clear at the top of the Premier League. 
But it was a disastrous afternoon for Ancelotti, whose side had only dropped points in one previous home game this season, a 3-3 draw with Everton. 
What's more, his team lacked discipline after the break and were vulnerable in defence, with Hilario looking particularly suspect.
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Swansea 1 - 0 Peterborough

David Cotterill extended promotion-chasing Swansea City's unbeaten run to 12 games and pushed bottom club Peterborough closer to relegation.
Cotterill struck from the spot after Charlie Lee brought him down. 
Nathan Dyer had an effort cleared off the line while keeper Joe Lewis denied Ferrie Bodde and Lee Trundle. 
Lee Frecklington put a header wide for the Posh but Swansea's biggest worry was the injuries to midfielder duo Bodde and Darren Pratley. 
Bodde was making his return from five months out with a knee problem and the Dutchman's exit after just 28 minutes raised question marks as to whether he was ready to play. 
It was the third time in 15 months Bodde has suffered an injury to his left knee. In November 2008 he suffered cruiciate ligament damage and then broke down after eight minutes of his starting return against Sheffield United last September. 606: DEBATE 
Give your thoughts on Swansea v Peterborough 
The double-blow will add to manager Paulo Sousa's midfield woes with Joe Allen, Andrea Orlandi and Jordi Lopez already sidelined. 
But the fourth-placed Swans kept their focus on the job in hand and are seven points off an automatic promotion spot and eight ahead of Sheffield United in seventh. 
Peterborough remain 10 points adrift of safety and winless on the road.
www.bbc.co.uk

Chelsea - Man City

Chelsea played an exhausting match in Italy at Wednesday, but Man.Utd. are on just point behind and they have to continue collecting the points. Good thing is they, despite a defeat, made a good result. At Stamford they have a brilliant record in Premier with 12 wins from 13 games (and draw vs. Everton 3-3), scored 38 goals and conceded just 8! Bad thing is they lost Cech for at least a month and Hilario will take his place. There’s nothing much to say about Chelsea and their shape. They’re most quality team in Premier, playing without turbulence through the season and they’re desperate to win. Beside mentioned Cech, Ancelotti will miss Bosingwa, Deco, Essien and Ashley Cole. In last 8 games against City at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea won 7 and drew one game with goal difference 20-1!

It seems the “honeymoon” for Mancini in Manchester has been finished as they won just once in last six competitive games. Considering their players’ quality they should be just behind Chelsea, but problem is motivation, as they could attract only specific kind of players that evaluate material motives (money) before sport’s. Robinho for example has already left the club, while Adebayor looks bored and not interested (got 4 games ban at Stoke and won’t appear, btw.). There’s also unrest in the dressing room between Mancini and the players. Started with Bellamy (who else?), continue with other players who are dissatisfied with training sessions and progress with Tevez’ trip to Argentina. Tevez has returned to England and will play, but was accused from Mancini for lack of fitness (got response “I don’t care”). This issue is getting on importance as Argentinean is the best goal scorer with 19 goals, second is Adebayor with 9 and with Bellamy that’s almost all attacking potential for Citizens. Also, the reason for Tevez’ trip to home was his wife who just had a birth before the date and his concentration today will be questionable. City also played a game at Wednesday and were knocked from the Cup at Stoke after 120 minutes. Their away shape isn’t something to be proud on as they have won just one of their last 11 league matches on the road. 

This game will also have a tension as “old friends”, Terry and Bridge will have to face each other which could include rest of the players. As the result I can see few more yellow cards and maybe one red on the visitors side (can’t to not think on Bellamy). Considering all, this game is a derby only on a paper. The Blues are hard favorites and anything less than a win with 2-3 goals margin would be a first class surprise. Odd isn’t too high, but considering the risk looks adequate. Home win with -1 asian handicap.

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Manchester City – Bolton

City suffered an unexpected defeat in last round, on the road from Hull. They had a comfortable approach to the game and it resulted with two conceded goals. They woke up after, but was too late. However, it was the third defeat in Mancini’s era (Hughes had only two and got sacked) and this game could be decisive in their CL pursuit. They have top quality players, but main problem is how to motivate them. Owners promised last week generous rewards (good way in my opinion) for reaching CL spot and for winning FA Cup. Citizens will play in next rounds against Liverpool and Chelsea and in case of another failure tonight will find themselves very far from promised money. Craig Bellamy will see a specialist about his long-standing knee injury and he won’t appear. City have scored in 21 consecutive home matches and in last four at least twice. 

Bolton are first above the relegation line with just a single point more. In this game they go after an unlucky home draw against Fulham. Trotters missed some very good chances for a lead and at the end were short for probably regular goal cancelled by referee. Owen Coyle obviously made a positive impact, but it’s also obvious they lack in quality. And that level of quality will be even more damaged tonight, as Coyle will miss key defender Gary Cahill (has suffered a blood clot in his arm and is set to miss the rest of the season) and best goal scorer with 7 goals, second scorer Klasnic (6 goals), on-loan winger Vladimir Weiss, while Andy O'Brien (thigh) and Fabrice Muamba (ankle) are both doubtful. Bolton have kept one clean sheet in their last 23 Premier League away matches.

As I wrote, the main problem for Citizens is motivation and probably the best way for it is money. The class difference is more than obvious and with correct approach it will be a win by few goals margin. Trotters will try to keep a goalless draw, but with first goal conceded the game for them will be finished. Home handicap win. 

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Middlesbrough - Manchester City

December was surely the worst betting month in my life. The fact it was a failure for 99% of punters doesn't make me feel better. However, I hope new year should return my record in green. Here is the first analyze for today. Before the 4pm kick-off will probably write few more words about the rest. Stay tuned.

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Gordon Strachan was appointed to secure promotion to Premier. Boro have talented team, considering players’ potential, they should be in play-off zone at least. Strachan has specific training methods, in previous clubs (Coventry, Southampton and Celtic) he noticed first win after 4-5 games. Fine. In Boro first win came in fifth game and in big style, QPR were trashed 5-1 on the road. But, instead a start of good run, Riverside was froze by Blackpool 0-3. So, after 10 games under new boss Middlesbrough lie at 11^th position with shameful record of two wins, same draws and six defeats! For this game they will be without a number of important players. Key strikers Leroy Lita is suspended, Dave Kitson returned to Stoke and Jeremie Aliadiere is in a doubt with an ankle injury. Midfielder Isaiah Osbourne is ineligible, key defender Emanuel Pogatetz is out, while David Weather (defense), Adam Johnson (midfield) and Chris Riggot (defense) are doubtful. Defense will also be weakened than usual for Sean St Ledger who returned to his parent club – Preston.

 

Mancini has made a perfect start in City. Two wins from two games and two clean sheets. He has been talking seriously about Cup competition, the least he wants is early upset, Hughes was fielding strong squads and I believe Mancini will keep that manner. But, he also has injury problems. Wright-Phillips is major concern with his ankle problem, Stephen Ireland is definitely out, while Craig Bellamy is doubtful. Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor are at the African Cup of Nations. But the fact is City have a huge number of quality players and whoever will start the game will have a motive to put a good display. To prove himself to the new boss or to advertise before a transfer market, doesn’t matter.

 

My major concern wasn’t teams’ quality. Weather is cold, but it’s the same for both sides. Pitch is in good condition, won’t limit City’s pass play. I was thinking a lot about their seven draws in a row. In every case you could put an own house on City. This game also looks obvious. However, Mancini’s era has just started in great style and I don’t believe they’ll allow an early shock. Odd for Boro's win is based on mutual history that favors Boro, their 8-1 win from May 2008 and definitely has a value. I choose away win and handicap as a gamble.

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