Sheff Wed - Bristol Rovers

I already know on what I’ll bet today. Three bets, maybe even four. Will be posting analyzes one after another, so stay tuned...

Milan Mandaric took the charge at Wednesday. Fans probably aren’t delighted since he’ll get the stadium if club continue with losing money. However, sure thing is players can be focused only on pitch. This makes Wednesday most quality team in the third tier, once again. Only problem is on the position of right-back, since Buxton and Otsemobor are injured. Probably Daniel Jones will fill that position.

Rovers are not the side that like to park the bus in front the goal. They have fully complete rooster which will additionally strengthen their confidence based on the fact they already resisted at last two away games against strong opponents (Brighton and Charlton).

My vote for a home side. Visitors’ confidence and their probably more open game could bring them more balls in the net.

Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75
Odd: 2.06 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

Manchester United - Valencia

United haven’t impressed in CL games at Old Trafford, this season. One draw 0-0 (vs. Rangers) and one unconvincing win over Turkish side Bursa. They need only a point here for the first spot in the group (which should be important). But, the fact that makes this bet attractive is Utd’s schedule. They didn’t play for the weekend at Blackpool and next game (hard one tough, vs. Arsenal) is at next Monday (range is 16 days). My opinion is Ferguson will name very strong squad for the game (he already made such announcement) to keep the players in shape and to keep winning mentality. Last thing he needs is deja vu of Besiktas in previous season.

I find it hardly to believe Valencia carry any serious hope tonight. With a win they would be first, yes. But it’s easier to believe, they’ve already given up from it. Bunch of players are out of squad. Moya, Navarro, Joaquin, Vicente, Stankevicius, Topal, Manuel Fernandes  and Bruno all stayed at Spain. Boss Emery brought to England goalie Cesar and defender Mathieu, but it does remain to see will they start the game.

I don’t think Utd will gamble with this one and have no problem to accept offered price. Rooney should strive to regain some of the lost confidence (and probably lost nerves with Bervatov’s five hits and all the talks about it) and I expect him on a score sheet. As yesterday, home win is pure logic for me.

Bet: Man Utd -1ah
Odd: 1.98 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

Results and statistic update

Wigan - Stoke 2-2 DRAW
Leeds - Crystal Palace 2-1 WON
Sunderland - West Ham 1-0 LOST
Liverpool - Aston Villa 3-0 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
l

Liverpool - Aston Villa

I think Liverpool are in uptrend. They look better on the pitch, Hodgson’s vision should finally be applied and they should start climbing on the table. Four consecutive home wins, three in Premier and Napoli in EL. Despite the defeat, they looked good at White Hart Lane. Lucas and Meireles are compensating Stevie G’s absence very well. Key players were rested from a trip to Romania and only change will be Kyrgiakos who should start instead Jamie Carragher.

Liverpool were one of my favourite clubs, until Houllier became a manager. The ugliest football I had ever seen. Kicking the long balls, Heskey tries to make a header to young Owen and his runs. And these three moves all the game. Simply, I started to be happy whenever Houllier lost the game with this degradation. However, I assume he’ll try to make from Villa something like that. Defensive formation with fast wingers and tall strikers. And that L’pool took bunch of trophies during his era. He’ll also miss his key man, Ashley Young. Agbonlahor and Carew are far shape from previous season. Defence line looks extremely shaky nowadays, since they lost three in a row and conceded at least twice in last five! Villa have the worst league record against top five clubs and have just one win at Anfield from last 17 encounters.

Even without Gerrard (I don’t think Carragher is so big loss), Liverpool should be enough for this Villa. With three points, home side would climb to 8th place and then could start thinking about chasing CL spot. No big philosophy, home win here is a pure logic for me.

Bet: Liverpool -1ah
Odd: 1.95 Betsson
Stake: 8/10

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
l

Sunderland - West Ham

After a sublime performance at Stamford Bridge, Sunderland took only a point from next two games. Draw against Everton at home (2-2) and defeat at Wolves (2-3). They’ve been playing nice to watch football, still without a defeat at home (resisted against Man Utd, Man City and Arsenal) and possess serious attacking power in Bent and Gyan. I was thinking about home win, first. But, here’s the problem. Steve Bruce will be missing both of his first choice centre backs, Michael Turner and Titus Bramble. In a tight game, risk would be bigger. I expect more attacking Sunderland, today. Good thing for Bruce is, another defender John Mensah declared himself fit.

The Hammers defeated Wigan in their make or break game, but shock came after it as they demolished Man Utd in Cup game. They didn’t earn any points on that, but mood in the dressing room is completely different. No reason for a fear at Stadium of Light. They don’t have a single win on the road, but actually like to visit Sunderland’s ground. Six wins there of last eight occasions. Carlton Cole is back with two goals in Cup, with Piquionne should be a real threat to the opposite defence (defence without centre backs). The Hammers have scored in each of their last 15 league games against Sunderland.

In some other moment of the season, I guess Sunderland would be a clear favourite. But today with those injuries and confident West Ham, I think they won’t keep a clean sheet. Whatever aspect of this game I try to analyze, conclusions are the same. Goals, both to score, over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.05 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

Leeds - Crystal Palace

Leeds are doing well in their debuting season in Championship, as they hold 8th place with just point less than 4th Derby. They have very good squad and I can see them in play-off zone at the end (or not so far from that). However, aggressive and attacking style that Simon Grayson carries produced the highest number of goals in whole league (64, 32 for and same against). All but one home game (11 competitive) went in over. Although they have Gunners and FA Cup game on the corner, players are fully motivated (as always under Grayson). No injuries, but one suspension. Defender, Paul Connolly, got his fifth booking in away draw at Reading.

Palace are struggling and will be doing so till the end. It’s not a big mystery about them, they will relegate or finished close of that. They have a combat spirit, fight all 90 minutes, but from the start of a season they’re facing plenty of problems (on pitch and outside of it). Squad potential is limited and I don’t expect any miracle from them. They’re worst travellers with 7 defeats of 9 games and conceded 22 goals in those which is the biggest number in League (total of 35 is only better from Preston). Big boost is, however, return of maybe the best player in Championship - Darren Ambrose. His capability to score and organizing the play will significantly increase Palace’s chances at Elland. Midfielders, Alex Marrow (injury) and Owen Garvan (suspension) are out.

Both sides will fancy their chances. I think Leeds are closer to win, but will hardly keep a clean sheet. Odds for goals look absolutely acceptable. Over for me.

p
Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.85 188bet
Stake: 8/10

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
l

Wigan - Stoke

Not too much time for analyze here, as the odds are in a serious drop.

Btw. previous bet was a draw.

Wigan –Stoke City

Two opposite trends here and serious difference in quality. Wigan (although undefeated in last four at home) have been producing poor performances that resulted with three consecutive defeats. They’re also clashed with injuries. Beside they’re lowest scorers in Premier (total of 11 goals), they’ll be without Rodallega and Moses with Di Franco rated 50-50.

Stoke are undefeated in last four games (three wins), where their draw against Man City was especially impressing. They invested lot during the summer, ambitions are high and I expect more from them.

I give a significant advantage to Stoke, but no way I can exclude a possibility of a draw. So, dnb option for me.

Bet: Stoke 0.0
Odd: 1.81 Tipico
Stake: 9/10

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

Arsenal - Wigan

There’re plenty of questions which team Wenger will field for this game. Against Spurs and Newcastle, he named stronger squad than usual for a Cup game. Personally, I don’t have a problem with that. Any Arsenal’s eleven are pretty strong entity. Fabregas is injured. Chamakh will be rested, but there’s Bendtner (although I don’t like to base a bet on him). Arshavin, Wilshere and Rosicky, all should appear from the start. Arsenals haven’t won anything for five years (my honest opinion they’ll blow up in Premier, once again) and this could be a golden opportunity to lift the trophy.

Oppositely from Wenger, Martinez has plenty of reasons for a decent headache. Injury list consists some of his key players and space for rotation is not so big. He announces a possibility to give a chance to some youngsters. Believe him or don’t.  After great run of results they entered a crisis and defeat at West Ham was their fourth consecutive on the road and Wigan dropped into dangerous zone. Despite they knocked Arsenal at semi-final 2006, they have seven consecutive defeats on their soil. Adding on that Wigan has a label of really poor travellers and this is less important Cup, I have no reason to believe Martinez carries a serious hope for this encounter. Stoke at home should be more important concern.

I think we won’t see any surprise here. Gunners’ talent and desire for proving themselves should be too much for Wigan. Home win and handicap for me.

Bet: Arsenal -2ah
Odd: 2.26 188bet
Stake: 7/10

I'm curious about Huddersfield. Maybe a bet, but little later.

Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.