Leeds - Reading

A big pressure on Simon Grayson’s side. They have won just once of last six games, but still occupying the 6th spot. They’re top league scorers (78 goals on total of 42 games and 46 on 21 at home), they have scored on 13 of last 14 home games and 9 of last 11 at Elland Road went in over. This is do or die game for Leeds, another failure would see them below the line. Key defender and skipper, Richard Naylor, could make his first start since October. But, key question is will Luciano Becchio be in the line up. Considering odds movement (raising the prices on home side and goals), he’s out.

Visitors are the absolute hit. Twelve league games without defeat, with eight consecutive wins! Differently from the hosts they won’t feel any pressure since the play-off spot is safe (nine points above the line), but they could see a chance for a direct promotion. They are the third league scorers in total (73 goals on 42 games) and second best on the road (34 goals on 21 games) scored in each of last 13 league games, in nine of those scored twice or more. Striker Noel Hunt is in doubt.

This is the game of great importance, especially for Leeds. Both sides are attacking minded and whoever concedes first won’t give up. I have no clue about the winner, but goals should be a pure logic.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.03 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
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Preston - Leeds

North End are stuck for the bottom with 10 points below the relegation line and it seems there’s no wonder that could keep them in Championship. They’re 13 games without win in league (6D, 7L) and have won only one of last 21! They also conceded second highest number in league (62 goals in 35 games). Phil Brown has a long row in front the medic. Six players are rated as in doubt. Goalie Lonergan, def Morgan, def Gray, str Ellington, def Cort and mid Nicholson. So, goalie and three defenders in the poorest side in second tier.

Leeds are strong play-off (and promotion, in my opinion) candidates. However, they continue to play with the nerves of their fans, scoring goals for fun but conceding as well. 2-2 and 3-3 at home, then 0-3 at Swans and from 1-0 and 1-2 till 5-2 against Doncaster! They’ve brought midfielder Barry Bannan (till the end of season) from Villa and this lad could have very important role in the team. Leeds have failed to score in only four Championship games out of 35. One more reason for a good display will be first game at Elland where Leeds had 4-1 lead and eventually lost 4-6!

Goals look like an obvious and very popular bet, but it’s more my feeling that Grayson will demand tighter defence and not so open game. After almost every Leeds high scoring game this season, a low scoring one followed. The difference in quality is huge and I expect their safe win (something like 0-2), but took -0.25 line just in case. 

Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 1.78 10bet
Stake: 8/10
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Leeds - Doncaster

Leeds are holding a play-off spot, but haven’t won in last three games. They suffered 3-0 defeat at Swans, but played pretty well actually and were unlucky to stay empty handed (referee’s mistakes unlucky). They’re top scorers in Championship with 62 goals (conceded 55), while their 17 games at Elland have produced 64 goals (3.76 in average)! Johnson returns after suspension,  Connolly remains sidelined, Lloyd Sam is struggling with a virus.

After a horrible run of results, Donny’s injury list started to decrease and results have been improving. They’re undefeated in last three and are boosted with midweek away win at Derby. At that game, playmaker Stock and finisher Sharp (two goals) returned to the team. Donny’s 17 games on the road have produced 60 goals (3.53 average) and they’ve kept just one clean sheet!

Leeds are certainly the favourites here, but not sure does it worth at 1.65. On the other hand their attacking attitude and Donny’s passing style should guarantee an entertaining afternoon at Elland Road. Backed with strong statistical data, I think there shouldn’t be a room for mistake. I’m on goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.70 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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Leeds - Arsenal

Leeds are really good in FA Cup recently, knocked Man Utd  at Trafford and played a draw at White Hart Lane last year, in this campaign resisted at Emirates (almost won, actually). Also, United will be confident as they’re undefeated at home in last seven and failed to score only once in last 15 games. The pressure is off (understandable) and Elland will be packed. No way I’ll be against them in these circumstances. Becchio  got some injury against Scunny and is rated as doubtful, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t start (as I was shocked with Cattermole at Sunday, though).

Problem with Arsenal is they’re missing too many chances and if don’t score until 60th minute, become nervous. On the other hand if Gunners manage to score in first 15-20 mins, they will run the riot. Leeds kept them quiet in the first encounter, will they be able to do that again? No, I don’t believe in it. Arsenal have Wigan for the weekend and Ipswich for six days (after 0-1) and nobody could really assume the team that Wenger will name. Before the Emirates’ draw, Gunners noticed three consecutive wins over Leeds, scoring 13 goals in those. Arsenal haven’t been knocked in the third round in past 15 years.  

I won’t be involved in the final outcome, but high scoring game and away win is my expected scenario. Don’t think Leeds can keep it tight again and I’m sure they really believe in progress. On the other hand, Wenger knows here’s no reply. Goals would be my call.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.06 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Leeds - QPR

Interesting odds for goals. Bookies based them on QPR, as Rangers conceded only 12 goals in past 20 games (needless to say the lowest number in division), while on the road allowed only five (lowest again). On the other hand, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in last three encounters and in London derby vs. Watford conceded three times (first loss this season).

Situation with Leeds is completely opposite. Championship games involving Leeds have produced 72 goals (more than any other club). They also have the worst home record, conceded shocking 20 goals in 10 games at Elland Road. Neil Warnock will surely try to use it. Home boss, Grayson, insists on attacking style (interesting fact is they hit the woodwork 15 times!) that should erase defensive errors. They never surrender and won amazing 14 points from matches in which they were behind.

I think this could be the first away defeat for QPR. On the other hand under soil heating at Elland is working perfectly and I can’t see any obstacle why we shouldn’t watch an open game. Becchio against Taarabt. This will be great. 2-1 correct score.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.10 Pinnacle, William Hill
Stake: 7/10

I hate snow! Liverpool should have been a bet of the day. Portsmouth and Cardiff... arghhh 

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Leeds - Crystal Palace

Leeds are doing well in their debuting season in Championship, as they hold 8th place with just point less than 4th Derby. They have very good squad and I can see them in play-off zone at the end (or not so far from that). However, aggressive and attacking style that Simon Grayson carries produced the highest number of goals in whole league (64, 32 for and same against). All but one home game (11 competitive) went in over. Although they have Gunners and FA Cup game on the corner, players are fully motivated (as always under Grayson). No injuries, but one suspension. Defender, Paul Connolly, got his fifth booking in away draw at Reading.

Palace are struggling and will be doing so till the end. It’s not a big mystery about them, they will relegate or finished close of that. They have a combat spirit, fight all 90 minutes, but from the start of a season they’re facing plenty of problems (on pitch and outside of it). Squad potential is limited and I don’t expect any miracle from them. They’re worst travellers with 7 defeats of 9 games and conceded 22 goals in those which is the biggest number in League (total of 35 is only better from Preston). Big boost is, however, return of maybe the best player in Championship - Darren Ambrose. His capability to score and organizing the play will significantly increase Palace’s chances at Elland. Midfielders, Alex Marrow (injury) and Owen Garvan (suspension) are out.

Both sides will fancy their chances. I think Leeds are closer to win, but will hardly keep a clean sheet. Odds for goals look absolutely acceptable. Over for me.

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Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.85 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Leeds – Sheffield United

Leeds collected 10 points in the opening 7 rounds which isn’t bad, but in my opinion their displays are over the recent results. They lost in local derby (vs. Barnsley 2-5) in the game that came just 3 days after very hard home encounter against Swansea (2-1, after 0-1 at half time). In the previous round, they overplayed Doncaster, also on the road, but drew at the end. They’ve been showing a plenty of fighting spirit. Two times came from behind, but they’re also the only side in Championship that committed 100 fouls. They should continue the trend from League One when Elland was a fortress and in any game at home, Leeds will be favorite. Simon Grayson has no injury concerns and it will be first time when he can pick from a full squad. Loanee left-back, George McCartney, will probably has his debut.

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Blades sacked his manager, Kevin Blackwell, after home defeat vs. QPR 0-3. Harsh decision, in my opinion, as Rangers seem to be the strongest league club. And United this year won’t be able to repeat the ambitions from previous seasons (play-off). Blackwell’s successor, Gary Speed (ex Leeds player), has been trying to implement his own style of play. Which means battle in whole game, very few goals conceded (three clean sheets in five games), but also very few goals scored (3 goals in those 5). They have lots of problems in creating the chances and they really suffer with the absence of Darius Henderson in the attacking line. Skipper and central-defender, Chris Morgan, is still sidelined. I think their only advantage will be history that says Blades haven’t lost vs. Leeds in the last seven encounters.

 

Leeds will start aggressively and will be keeping that pace during all 90 minutes. I expect their good performances finally change into good results. Blades carry the same style of play and that’s the way how Leeds like opposition to play. Sheffield also obviously lack in quality this season. Blackwell’s departure was a big mistake, Speed won’t stay too long. Home win with some caution.

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Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 1.82  Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10

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Leeds - Swansea

Leeds suffered a shock at the opening day (1-2 Derby), but bounced back very fast. Seven points in next three games are more than decent achievement. A point away at Nottingham, home win vs. “old friends” Millwall and away win at Watford gave them strong wind in the back in their high ambitions. Main problem is defense line where Schmeichel is covering all the holes. However, great attacking potential and Grayson’s high-tempo style of play make from them a serious play-off contender. Leeds had 59 goal attempts - 31 of them on target - and hit the woodwork 7 times! They still miss Snodgrass and Paynter, but made some good signings (Faye, Nunez, Clayton and my favorite Ross McCormack).

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Swansea seem still suffering from Sousa’s departure. And while at home look safe (won all three competitive games), on the road can’t keep a clean sheet (both league defeats, Hull and Norwich 0-2). I don’t think they’ll have a chance to join the race for a play-off spot and mid table position is the place where they’ll probably finish the season. However, boss Rodgers has big worries about missing players. Midfielder Darren Pratley is suspended, another midfielder Tom Butler is injured as well as strikers Beattie and Pintado. All four are important players. Swans were beaten on their last 6 visits to Leeds and their only away victory at Elland Road was a 2-1 win in 1949.

 

Leeds are maybe the best organized club in the second tier, have good squad quality and fans’ support. Elland Road should be a fortress this season and I really like these odds.

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Bet: Leeds -0.25

Odd: 2.05 Canbet

Stake: 8/10
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Probably one more.
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Millwall - Coventry

Millwall started the returning campaign in a great manner. Defeated in the first round Bristol City on the road (3-0) and home win vs. ex-Premier Hull (4-0). Then scored on Elland Road (Leeds), but managed to concede three times. However, they bounced back in Carling and defeated Premier contender ‘Boro 2-1 (that was 4th win in five matches). They made a fortress of home ground and The Den is not a place where other teams like to go. Boss Kenny Jackett will probably set an unchanged squad. Only absentees are defender Tony Craig and striker Shaun Batt.

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Coventry also made an encouraging start. Two home wins (Portsmouth 2-0 and Derby 2-1) and away draw (Watford 2-2). Against Watford came back from 2 goals down, but against Derby were also struggling and could have lost as well. As always, their main problem is games on the road where collect much less points. For this game, boss Aidy Boothroyd can not count on one important player, striker Lucas Jutkiewicz. Although Coventry are still unbeaten, they haven’t won last six away games (3 draws and 3 lost).

 

As long as Millwall can smell Premiership, they’ll be very strong and dangerous. Especially at the Den (last season, in League One, just a single defeat). Coventry are a decent side, they will probably finish in the top side of the table, maybe even make a threat for a play-off spot, but Millwall away is simply too much. Home win.

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Bet: Millwall to win

Odd: 2.00 Interwetten

Stake: 7/10

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More will follow...

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Leeds 1-1 Watford (2-1 AET)

Leeds were bidding for a sixth straight victory to the start the new season, and a larger than anticipated crowd turned our for the second round tie. 
The opening exchanges saw both sides mount early attacks, Watford goalkeeper Richard Lee collecting a Jermaine Beckford cross. Lee also came off his line well to clear a Jason Crowe cross after 11 minutes.
At the other end, one-time Leeds loan man Danny Graham latched on to an underhit header from Crowe to Shane Higgs, but the striker's touch let him down when faced with an opportunity to close in on goal.
On the quarter-hour Bradley Johnson tried his luck with an effort which flew over the top and moments later Higgs pulled off a fingertip save to deny Don Cowie.
Leeds created another good opening on 25 minutes when Beckford and Mike Grella combined to feed Snodgrass in space. The Scot's first effort was blocked, but he quickly regained possession, composed himself, and curled an effort over the top.
On the half-hour, Higgs another save to make when Will Hoskins shot straight at the Leeds goalkeeper after a good turn just inside the box.
But it was United who were in front on 38 minutes thanks to a first goal of the season from Snodgrass. Grella was again involved in the build-up, with a delightful lay-off, and Snodgrass delivered a superb finish, curling the ball past Lee.
Watford's response came via the lively Hoskins who forced Higgs into making another block from a low, angled shot. Higgs also saved from Tom Cleverley who made himself an opening after good work from Hoskins down the Watford left.
But in the final seconds of the half, Johnson, seeking a third successive goal, won a corner after trying his luck with a trademark powerful strike.
United also started the second half brightly, and Jonny Howson had an effort narrowly wide of the mark. Snodgrass, boosted by the quality strike in the first half, also sent an effort fizzing wide before the hour.
But the visitors were still a threat and John Eustace went close when Watford came forward.
It was an entertaining contest, Howson was again looking lively for Leeds in midfield, and Snodgrass again went close when he forced Lee into making a decent low save.
Grella had also been a threat throughout for Leeds and his intelligence led to Lloyd Doyley conceding a free-kick on the edge of the area on 70 minutes, which Eustace headed clear.
Moments later, the American was involved again in releasing Beckford, but Lee reacted quickly and managed to get enough on the shot to lift it over the top.
With 11 minutes left on the clock, Grayson made his first change of the night with Enoch Showunmi, scorer of the winner in round one at Darlington, replacing Beckford. Neil Kilkenny was also handed a late run out in place of the impressive Grella.
But it was a Watford substitute who made a decisive intervention with four minutes remaining when Marvin Sordell bagged an equaliser, drilling home a low shot beyond the reach of Higgs after Leeds failed to clear.
It looked like being enough to send the game into extra time, but as the clock passed the 90-minute mark, United mounted a final assault on the Watford goal, forcing the visitors to defend in numbers until Micky Doyle lifted a shot over the bar.
And in the final moment, Higgs made a save from a header, but the 90 minutes ended at 1-1.
It was United who started the extra period on the front foot, and eight minutes in, Snodgrass scored his second goal of the night to put Leeds back in front. The Scot again showed good composure to apply the finishing touch after latching on to a knock-on from Showunmi.
And it could have been three in the 100th minute of the night, but Doyle was denied by a superb save from Lee after a good ball by Andrew Hughes.
Chasing the game, Watford started the second period on the front foot, and Snodgrass picked up a booking in the 106th minute following a challenge in front of the West Stand.
Crowe was called upon to make a good block for United after Sordell's clever ball gave Henri Lansbury the chance to shoot.
At the other end, Showunmi was twice denied, first by a defender and then by the quick reaction of Lee. Both sides were clearly feeling the pace, but the openings continued, Eustace and Sordell both off-target for the Hornets. 
With four minutes remaining, as Snodgrass left the field to a standing ovation, replaced by Luciano Becchio, Lee again reacted well to thwart Showunmi.
Still the half-openings game. On 119 minutes, Watford skipper Mike Williamson escaped down the right, but his low pull-back fizzed across an empty penalty box and away to safety.
United responded in the final minute, Johnson sending a shot wide of Lee's left-hand post, and Leeds almost snatched a third at the death following a quick breal. Doyle met a Howson cross, but Becchio was unable to apply the finishing touch.
And that proved to be the last action of the game as United edged through to the third round of the Carling Cup.
www.leedsunited.com

Leeds United - Watford

After another disappointment in play-off and missed opportunity for promotion (lost vs. Millwall in semi-final 0-1), Leeds remain as one of the biggest favorites for promotion. New start looks impressive, four games, three league wins and one in cup. Before the transfer market started, major concerns were can club keep their young stars Fabien Delph and Jermain Beckford. Delph left the club and signed for Aston Villa, but Beckford, scorer of 34 goals last season in all competition and four goals in recent one stayed. All in Leeds take every opportunity to point they don’t belong in the third tier, accept it as a shame and tonight will have a nice opportunity to show it on the pitch against the opponent who comes from the league where Leeds should be. Also, all in the club certainly remembers their last meeting with the Hornets in Championship play-off final (2006). Leeds were looking for immediate return to Premier, but lost totally unexpected 0-3 and seems then the things definitely go wrong for them. Next season, team relegated to League One and stayed till these days. They’ll be fully motivated and I expect the best available eleven on the pitch. Boss Simon Grayson will once again be without left-back Ben Parker, who has missed the last four games because of a hamstring injury, while centre-back Richard Naylor (back) remains a long-term absentee. Leeds have been knocked out in the second round just once in last 14 years.

New season brought the same problems for the lads from Vicarage Road. Excellent manager Brendan Rogers left the club to take a charge in Reading and his replacement is Malky Mackay. Team also lost a striker Tamas Priskin (15 goals last season), while star striker Tommy Smith looks likely to be on his way out from the club before the transfer window shuts. Club signed few new players, worth of mentioning are striker Danny Graham (from Carlisle United) and loan duo Henri Lansbury and Tom Cleverley from Arsenal and Manchester United. I think, in the best case, team is equal with that from the last season. Which means tough battle to save the status in the second tier. And start in Championship doesn’t look too promising, as Watford have won only one of their four league games so far. So, they have bigger worries (saturday’s clash against Swansea, for example) than progress in cup competition. Mackay will probably rest his keys and give a chance to some fringe players. Mentioned Lansbury and Cleverley will have a debut as they have been given permission to play in the competition by parent clubs. The Hornets will surely be without key midfielder Jobi McAnuff (back injury) and striker Nathan Ellington (knee). Watford were last knocked out by lower league opposition two years ago when League One Southend eliminated them in the second round, while they needed extra-time to see off Barnet in the first round this year.

Leeds like to play against strong opponents. For them, it is the way to show the superiority. And for this encounter will have revenge as the additional reason. Top of the third league against bottom of the second. I think Watford need something really special if want to resist at Elland and see Leeds as the favorites here. Pinnacle offer 2.14. Home win.

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Leeds United - Millwall

Great club, with a great history and fans, is struggling in English third league. From Champions League semi-final, they dropped into League One. Because, as Milan Mandaric (owner of Leicester City) said once:”They spent the money they didn’t had.”. However, this is their third participation in play-offs, after relegation from Premier. Lost against Watford (the final for return in Premier, 0-3) and last year defeat against Doncaster Rovers (another final at Wembley, 0-1). They’re in excellent shape (excluding the first game at the New Den), with just one defeat (mentioned Leicester City at the Walkers' Stadium, 0-1) from last 15 league games! Straight 11 (eleven) wins at Elland Road, with 8 clean sheets! In the first game, they were controlling the match, but one big mistake by skipper Richard Naylor was punished and Leeds is a goal behind. United's manager has a message to the 37 000 fans who will support the lads:“Let’s take the roof off Elland Road!”. Atmosphere in Leeds best reflects (on loan) key defender Sam Sodje, who had already expressed his determination to play, despite suffering a shoulder injury. Manager Simon Grayson is selecting from a full strength squad.

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It's the third time in last ten years that the Lions have reached the play-offs, the previous times in 1999/2000 and 2001/02 ended in disappointment. Despite being ahead of their opponents for most of the season a sticky run in saw Millwall finish one place and two points below the Elland Road side. They go into this game in the middle of an indifferent run of form, having won last four home games and lost last three games on the road. In Saturday’s game, Millwall performed a tremendous desire and spirit that ensured their first play-off win in nine attempts. Club’s legend Neil Harris (came as a substitute in 16th min.) struck a second-half winner and gave to Millwall a slender advantage. Btw. the goal sparked a mini pitch invasion from a section of the home supporters and one fan was arrested on suspicion of assault after an incident involving Leeds keeper Ankergren. Jason Price is likely to miss out with a hamstring injury, but winger James Henry could start after impressing as a substitute in the first leg. Lions skipper Paul Robinson was on the bench in the first leg after recovering from four months out with a metatarsal injury and will stay on the bench. No other worries for boss Kenny Jackett

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If we consider the animosity between the fans of these two clubs, this game would be equal with a Champions League final. On the pitch, Leeds is a slight (not clear) favorite. I expect nervous game with many tough tackles (and bet on red card(s) seems as a proper choice) and I go for a home win rather than Leeds to pass. Odds are decreasing, at this moment the highest is 1.73 at 888sport.Home win.

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Monday's gossip column

TRANSFER GOSSIP 

Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp is lining up a summer bid to bring Inter Milan midfielder Sulley Muntari back to the Premier League - with Jermaine Jenas heading in the opposite direction. Redknapp's summer targets also include Sunderland striker Kenwyne Jones, Middlesbrough winger Stewart Downing and Charlton wonderkid Jonjo Shelvey. (Daily Mirror) 
Liverpool are ready to sell midfielder Lucas Leiva for about £6m and the Brazilian is willing to leave. (Daily Mirror) 
Sunderland are weighing up whether to make a £2.5m offer for Rangers midfielder Steve Davis. (Daily Mail) 
Manchester City want a £1m loan fee for number two goalkeeper Joe Hart, with Birmingham ready to pay it. (Daily Mirror)
Birmingham are chasing 19-year-old Plymouth winger Ashley Barnes, who is out of contract at the end of the season. (Daily Mirror) 
Nottingham Forest manager Billy Davies will launch a £2.5m bid for QPR striker Dexter Blackstock and goalkeeper Lee Camp. Davies will also ask to take Tottenham defender Chris Gunter again on a long-term loan. (The Sun) 
Derby boss Nigel Clough will look to offload a number of costly flops this summer, including goalkeeper Roy Carroll and striker Emanuel Villa. (Daily Mirror) 
Swansea want Queen of the South striker Stephen Dobbie and former Hearts winger Saulius Mikoliunas. (Daily Mirror)
Falkirk striker Steve Lovell is considering a summer move to Dundee United after passing a medical at Tannadice. (Daily Express) 
Leeds will fight it out with Leicester for the signature of Southampton goalkeeper Kelvin Davis - if the Elland Road outfit win promotion to the Championship. Davis is out of contract in the summer. (Daily Mail)
Oldham have released veteran goalkeeper Mark Crossley but the 39-year-old has already recieved an offer from an unnamed club. (Daily Mail) 
 
OTHER GOSSIP 

Bayern Munich will battle with Sunderland to appoint former Barcelona boss Louis van Gaal as boss this summer. (Daily Mail) 
Aston Villa midfielder James Milner insisted Newcastle would not be in relegation trouble if they had kept Sam Allardyce as manager. (Daily Express)
Southampton legend Matthew Le Tissier is involved in one of the consortia aiming to buy the relegated club. (Various) 
 
AND FINALLY 

Hull midfielder Kevin Kilbane says his home life has been wrecked by the Tigers' battle to beat the drop. (The Sun) 
Scottish Premier League chiefs will hold crisis talks on Thursday to discuss Setanta's appeal to renegotiate their £125m four-year deal. (Daily Record)
www.bbc.co.uk