Champions League 7.4.

Man Utd - Bayern

Yes it was two flukes in Munich, but it happens when the team is under a heavy pressure. Bayern's win was clear and deserved for me. Both Utd's right-backs had a nightmare night. First Neville, handed the ball and Germans scored (I actually counted on his experience, but he reacted like an amateur). Evra's reaction before second goal was sensational, in my opinion. He repeated the same vs. Chelsea. Tonight will face recovered Robben. So, why we should expect tougher defense line tonight?

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On the other hand, no chance I'll ever bet against United at Old Trafford at any price. German's defense is not much better (if it is even better). Sir Alex stated they'll play for 1-0 win. Sure they will. He also stated Rooney and Rio are absolutely fit, before Bolton. I think Utd's biggest chance is opening 15 minutes when Bayern will be under highest pressure. One scored goal then could give a big advantage to the hosts.

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Can not bet on result after second half in Germany. And one man is not the team (as Vidic said), but Rooney is not an ordinary man and Berbatov really annoys me. Despite not so good odds, over 2.5 in this game is best bet for me. And won't suggest anyone to follow me, but have some feeling we could see extra time tonight. Gamble on Man Utd to win after penalty shoot out at 26.00!

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Bordeaux - Lyon

Actually I was about to back Lyon with DNB counting on their experience (same word again) playing at this level of competition. But, two facts discouraged me in that intention. First, two goals difference for Lyon wasn't fully deserved. Second, visitors will miss three very important players Lisandro Lopez, Jean II Makoun and Sidney Govou (Bafetimbi Gomis is fit). Since I'm really not an expert for French football (or its fan) and despite I can see another high scoring game, I'm giving up from this one. No bet!

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Bolton - Manchester United

Owen Coyle has been doing a very good job since he took over a charge in Bolton. They’ve accomplished (in my opinion) the primary mission and secure the status in Premier. They’re 8 points far from relegation zone and just wonder should happen to see them in Championship next season. He actually is doing the same thing as in Burnley, making from home pitch a fortress with lack of attention on away games. They have 4 games at home without a defeat with 4 clean sheets! It came against mainly bottom sides, however (Burnley, Wolves , Wigan and Fulham). Only clash against one of the top sides finished with easy defeat (0-2, Arsenal). Defender Gretar Steinsson is suspended, while Gary Cahill has recovered and could appear. Bolton are the only team in the Premier League who have not taken a single point off a team from the 'Big Four' this season.

 

United are approaching the final part of the season with a point more than Chelsea and I think they’ll hardly lose the points till the end. Ferguson even talked about goal difference (have same as Chelsea) as a potential decisive factor. However, the biggest benefits for Utd (beside Rooney’s sensational shape) are Rio and Vidic who play on the highest standards again. It’s also important for today’s game, as Bolton’s main weapon is set pieces (scored 21 goal, highest number in PL). They have Bayern on the corner, but I don’t expect any kind of easier approach at Reebok. The stake is too big. Man Utd have won 9 of the last 10 meetings against Bolton, and lost only one of their 10 Premier League games at Wanderers. Rooney (should be fit) has scored 6 goals in his last 4 league matches against Bolton.

 

Utd have been doing hard all season to reach the top and I can’t imagine they lose the points against Bolton. However, they’ll try to keep some energy for Champions League game and won’t suggest any big handicap. Bet is Utd -1 ah. 

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Tuesday view

Will try to forget previous week as fast as I can. Bad luck followed (let to be honest) with some wrong judgements resulted with worst run of results that I remember. Little satisfaction was game on Valley where Charlton trashed Norwich, realising my 3.65 bet. Bad (or maybe not) thing is recent offer is very poor and fast recover is not possible. Anyway I won't make the same mistake and will skip Skandinavian games (at least till I will be able to see some consistence in team's form, ambition...).

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Two big semi-finals are in front. Tomorrow Chelsea will host Barca. Home win will be my bet, but tomorrow about that. Tonight, Emirates will be the place where will be decided the first traveller to Rome. Arsenal will try to make a wonder (I think, that's a correct word). We'll watch surely different game than the first. Arsenal knows how to beat Utd. (Chelsea and Liverpool, too). Robin Van Persie has fully recovered and Arsene Wenger can count on him. Gunners are the strongest when nobody counts on them! But, statistic is against home side. It says Arsenal haven't eliminated some English team, ever. They haven't ever passed after 0-1 defeat in the first game (four times). Man.Utd. has 25 games in CL without a defeat! In last four CL away games, they didn't concede a single goal! That facts are enough to be frighten. For me, the most important thing is Vidic and Rio will play together. I think Utd. can (and will) score and it's impossible to concede three times. I don't even think about betting on this one. Will be a spectacle and I'll just enjoy in the footie.

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For fans of fixed games will be interesting in France 2, Vannes Olimpique hosts Berr. Chateauroux. Home side is safe in the middle, while visitors are fighting to avoid relegation. Odds for an away win is about 3.10. I've found on some different forums and sites this game as a pick of the day. Simple logic: hosts don't need, visitors do. But, Vannes has just one defeat from 16 home games (France 2 is also known as a "home wins" league), lost vs Bastia 0-1, 28.11.2008.. Chateauroux won in the last away game (Sedan Ardennes, 4-3), but, before that they had a disaster run of results on the road.They're as Vannes a typical home team. I don't think this game worths even a gamble bet, but it's on You. If somebody wish to try, Pinnacle offers 3.14 (and it's decreasing, recently), Expekt 3.10.

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Betting brake will be over tomorrow. So, stay tuned, some analyzes will follow.

Cheers, Dule 

Manchester Utd. - Aston Villa

Wednesday again made me feel bad. Incredible round in Championship, with just single home win (Sheffield U. 2 - 0 Ipswich T.).

No big speeches today. Liverpool took the first place and that's not funny. Two defeats in a row, Vidic, Rooney and Scholes are suspended, Brown and Berbatov won't play, too. Some English tabloids wrote about bad relationship between Ferguson and Rooney. Club is under big pressure and I'm sure they're all pissed off. Today's game has the weight of Champions League final. Win will put the things on right place, other result will make panic and launch Liverpool as a main title favorite.

Aston Villa had a great run of results. Then crushed under the pressure of big expectations (announced by themselves, btw.). Two draws and six defeats from last eight competitive games! Uefa cup is reality, not Champions league. 

Full recover today, or short brake from betting. Pinnacle offers 1.46 for home win, 2.00 for over and I guess handicap is about 2.30. Home win, handicap and over!