Leeds - Swansea

Leeds suffered a shock at the opening day (1-2 Derby), but bounced back very fast. Seven points in next three games are more than decent achievement. A point away at Nottingham, home win vs. “old friends” Millwall and away win at Watford gave them strong wind in the back in their high ambitions. Main problem is defense line where Schmeichel is covering all the holes. However, great attacking potential and Grayson’s high-tempo style of play make from them a serious play-off contender. Leeds had 59 goal attempts - 31 of them on target - and hit the woodwork 7 times! They still miss Snodgrass and Paynter, but made some good signings (Faye, Nunez, Clayton and my favorite Ross McCormack).

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Swansea seem still suffering from Sousa’s departure. And while at home look safe (won all three competitive games), on the road can’t keep a clean sheet (both league defeats, Hull and Norwich 0-2). I don’t think they’ll have a chance to join the race for a play-off spot and mid table position is the place where they’ll probably finish the season. However, boss Rodgers has big worries about missing players. Midfielder Darren Pratley is suspended, another midfielder Tom Butler is injured as well as strikers Beattie and Pintado. All four are important players. Swans were beaten on their last 6 visits to Leeds and their only away victory at Elland Road was a 2-1 win in 1949.

 

Leeds are maybe the best organized club in the second tier, have good squad quality and fans’ support. Elland Road should be a fortress this season and I really like these odds.

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Bet: Leeds -0.25

Odd: 2.05 Canbet

Stake: 8/10
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Probably one more.
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Manchester City - Blackburn

After 125 mill pounds spent during the summer, City started the season of great expectations with a win, draw and a loss. And while opening draw at Spurs wasn’t a big failure, demolishing L’pool was the great confidence boost, then real shock came at Sunderland (0-1 defeat). Considering circumstances and 94^th minute penalty, dressing room atmosphere is still good. They look very good defensively, that was the only goal conceded in 5 competitive games this season, while their attacking potential looks terrific. Mancini’s only concern is Tevez who will face a late fitness test (considering odds movement, he’ll be on the bench). Balotelli will be out for a while, Boateng will wait for a debut, while Micah Richards is fit again.

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Blackburn is a hard working side consisted from just average players, but with the leadership of (in my opinion) one of the best managers. They have enough quality to avoid struggling, but I can see a mid table position as their greatest possible achievement. As always majority of their points will come from home games, while on the road will be playing for a goalless draws. Under Big Sam, in first season they won just 4 away games of 19 and scored 18 goals, in second (last one) won miserable 3 and scored 13! In previous season, against all top sides (including Everton, Villa, Fulham and Stoke) except L’pool they lost with 2 goals margin at least. Defender Olsson is only doubt, while ex City striker Mwaruwari could have his debut.

 

I said once, I’ll be backing City as long as they feel as contenders for a title. They have a great potential and things will be fine as long as there’s good atmosphere. At Sunderland, they got a smack right in the mouth. They treat it as a bad luck and still believe they can win the title. So, let them believe. 

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Bet: Man City -1.25

Odd: 2.16 188bet

Stake: 8/10

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Saturday and statistic update

Notts County - Yeovil  4-0  WON
Huddersfield - Bournemouth  2-2  LOSS
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Statistic:
September
Profit: -8.7 units Yield: -39.55%
Season
Profit: +16.66 units Yield: +12.21%

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Huddersfield Town - AFC Bournemouth

In my opinion, Huddersfield are a strong contender for the place number 2 (just behind Sheff.Wed.) and direct promotion. They made an average start with 7 points from 4 games. They carry attacking style of play which, beside convincing wins against Notts County (3-0, away) and Charlton (at home 3-0), brought them two convincing defeats against Everton in Cup (1-5, away) and Posh (2-4 away, all 4 conceded in the 2^nd half after 2-0 lead). The biggest problems are visible when they face a team that “park the bus”, like Tranmere (0-0, at home). Some important players are returning to the squad. Young goalie, Alex Smithies, are back from England U-21, defender Lee Peltier has served his suspension, while winger Anthony Pilkington returns from an injury.

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Bournemouth have made a flying start of the campaign with same number of points (seven) as today’s opponent. However, beside impressive home win vs. Posh 5-1 other win came from the game against top relegation contender Tranmere (3-0, away), while two last home games ended with the draws. First County scored twice for 3-3, then Torquay resisted in the Cup game (0-0, home). However, injury crisis has struck the club. Striker Symes and midfielder McQuoid are in serious doubt, while another two strikers Fletcher and Lovell are ruled out. New striker, Lyle Taylor, should start.

 

Bournemouth are a kind of the opponent that Hudders like to play against. They carry attacking style and won’t be defending with 10 players, while their recent results call on serious approach. Beside a win, home side should work on self-confidence. Correct score 3-0, 3-1.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah
Odd: 2.05 bet365
Stake: 8/10

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Notts County – Yeovil

County started the season in the manner that was really expected. They couldn’t cope with the strongest sides Huddersfield and Oldham (both 0-3), but defeated Dag&Red and fought a draw away at Bournemouth. Signs of bigger potential could be seen at Watford, in League Cup encounter where County won 2-1. Biggest problem was the absence of their mascot, striker Lee Hughes. He has been recovered from a groin injury and will take some part in this game (will start from the bench, I expect). Another two important players, midfielder Neal Bishop and striker Ben Burgess should also be fit. County are celebrating 100 year centenary today.

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Yeovil started with a home win vs. Leyton (1-0), but in next five competitive games have noticed a one draw and four defeats. They looked harmless in front, with just two goals scored in those five. Additional problem for boss Skiverton is striker Sam Williams is suspended after a red card in Cup game (home defeat vs. Exeter). Two loan signings, defender Kiernan and midfielder MacDonald, could start the game. Yeovil’s main hope is a home games, while usually don’t shine on the road. Last season won 4 away games of 23, season before 6 and season before that 5.

 

Yeovil already lost against Bristol Rovers, Hartlepool and Exeter and I don’t give them too much chance today. If County want to achieve the target and keep the status in the third tier, they have to win games like Yeovil at home.

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Bet: Notts County to win

Odd: 1.90 Expekt

Stake: 7/10

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Friday's result

Ireland scored after 7 games. A loss for the start of September.

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Slovenia - Northern Ireland  0-1  LOSS

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Statistic:

August

Profit: -7 units  Yield: -100%

Season

Profit: +18.36 units  Yield: +15.11%

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Slovenia - Northern Ireland

Slovenia is a decent side. They proved themselves in previous qualifications and in South Africa. Some talented players (Novakovic, Dedic, Koren…), but personally I’m well surprised with their tactical discipline during the game. Their raiting has raised from 79^th Fifa place to 19^th. In last five home games, they won 4 (N.Zealand, Qatar, Russia and San Marino) and drew one (Czech Republic). Only absentee is defender Marko Suler.

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Ireland made few very good campaigns, but always stayed short eventually. They were playing friendlies lately, lost all 5 and didn’t score in last 7! However, they made 2 decent results and two draws against Czech 0-0 and Poland 1-1. In group with Italy, Serbia, Estonia, Slovenia and Faroe Islands, I rate them as 4^th and really can’t see N.Ireland progressing. No significant missings.

 

Slovenia plays really well in Maribor and considering the group rivals (Italy and Serbia) and the fact next game is in Belgrade, this one they have to win. 2-0 correct score.

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Bet: Slovenia -1ah  
Odd: 2.07  Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10
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August summary

August is always a tough month, but not this time. Can't remember when I was better at the start of the season. Hope you readers enjoyed.

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Statistic:

Profit: +25.36 units

Yield: +22.15%

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