Stoke- WBA

Stoke have lost four of last five games in Premier, but at home have three wins in a row (Everton, Bolton and Sunderland), scoring seven goals in those. Although being far from a John Carew fan, I think he’s fitting very well in Pulis’ style of play. Matthew Etherington is in doubt for the game. Stoke have won seven of last eight games against West Brom (both at home and away).

The Baggies are a point above the bottom, have lost last five on the road and conceded total of 52 goals. Roy Hodgson took the charge and they avoided defeats in last two league games, draws at home vs. West Ham and Wolves. However, I think he won’t be able to make a fast impact to the squad. His football philosophy is defence while most of the players are attacking minded (Di Matteo’s legacy). In such occasions (the last was Sousa, Swansea to Leicester), teams don’t defend better at first period just stop scoring goals. And yes, West Brom haven’t defeat Stoke on the road in past 29 years (never on Britannia).

Etherington is key player for Pulis and I wanted to hear some news about his condition. If he’s ready to play their chances will be significantly bigger, but in that case odds would significantly drop. So, I’ll exclude him from my consideration and am going to take Stoke as they simply should be too much for West Brom.

Bet: Stoke -0.5
Odd: 1.93 Bet365
Stake: 7/10
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Man City - Fulham

Don't think the fatigue is a significant factor here, as their mid week game looked like a stronger training session. Price on City is too good to be refused.

Bet: Man City -0.75
Odd: 1.90 188bet, Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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West Ham - Liverpool

Ok, here me going on Liverpool once again.
No time for a deeper analyze, just a pick.
Odds on City are raising, maybe a bet later.

Bet: Liverpool -0.25
Odd: 1.85 188bet
Stake: 7/10
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Aston Villa - Blackburn

Villa are doing pretty good at the moment, but have to keep it up since they’re just three points above the relegation line. They have scored and conceded in each of last five competitive games and kept the clean sheet just once in last 17. Bent, Agbonlahor and Ashley Young will be serious attacking threat and every of them have great scoring record against Blackburn. However, there’re some real problems for Houllier. Midfielder Makoun is suspended, while defender duo Cuellar - Collins will also miss the game.

Blackburn are just two points above Villa, lost two of last three and have terrible record on the road (3W-1D-9L). They have lost seven of last eight away games, also in seven conceded two or more goals and nine of ten away went in over. Total of conceded goals on the road is 31 which is the highest number in Premiership (same as Villa). They have their own problems in defence line. Samba had a virus but he’s expected to play. Skipper Nielsen insisted to be in a squad despite the earthquake in his birth town at New Zealand and his focus today could be questionable.

I think over is better choice than home win. Last six games of these teams at Villa Park have produced 28 goals(!), both sides have significant defensive problems and despite big Villa’s attacking potential, I think Blackburn will be able to hurt them and to score at least once. I’m on over.

 Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.93 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Sheff Utd - Derby

The Blades find themselves in a deep mud at 23rd place which is, at least for me, completely unexpected. Micky Adams is their fourth manager this season(!) and they’re without a win in 12 games. United lost their midweek six pointer at Scunthorpe on a shocking way after they had 2-0 lead. Adams’ storming after the game is probably a (final) try to wake up the squad and Derby should be the best possible opportunity for three points. 

The Rams are facing the plenty of problems on and off the pitch and are in a free fall. They are winless in last eight games losing five of them and haven’t scored in last three. Defender Roberts and midfielder Bailey are in doubt, while striker Jammie Ward cannot play against his parent club. But real trouble is a place goalkeeper. Stephen Bywater is out, as well as his substitution Saul Deeney (shoulder), so young Frank Fielding will step in and face lots of pressure. Derby are winless in last four meetings with the Blades (both home and away), losing three of them.

After stayed empty handed at Scunny, this is definitely make or break for United. Another defeat would likely send them in League One. I think they’ll have enough to pass the visitors, but wouldn’t exclude the possibility of a draw and take -0.25 at very nice odd.

Bet: Sheff Utd
Odd: 2.00 Stan James
Stake: 7/10
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Barnsley - Norwich

Barnsley are a decent host at Oakwell, with 8 wins, five draws and three defeats against top sides Burnley, Cardiff and Leicester. However, they’re in the middle with same distance from play-off and relegation zone and very likely will finish at the same place. Despite their good result at Leeds for the weekend, their recent shape isn’t something special (two points of possible 12). Just two wins out of last eight games in the league, against poor Preston and Donny. Skipper Foster and midfielder Colace will remain sidelined. Another two midfielders, Doyle and Mellis will face a fitness test.

Norwich are flying high at 5th position, they lost just one game of last 12 and their play-off ambitions looks reasonable. However, they only drew at home in midweek encounter against Donny which was everything but expected. Seventh Leicester have an easy game against Coventry at home and Norwich needs the points to keep the distance. They haven’t lost against Barnsley in last 10 occasions (both at home and away) and despite I don’t pay too much attention on history results, this record could have a serious affect on the self-confidence (of both sides). No injury worries for Paul Lambert.

Usually I have some problems to opposite Barnsley at Oakwell, but this time really fancy Norwich to bounce back and win. Bigger ambitions, more motivation, better shape and surely better squad. I’m pretty sure they won’t lose.

Bet: Norwich 0.0
Odd: 1.88 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
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Championship - Feb 22

I'm very busy, so just a pick. Tomorrow, maybe one more.
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Championship 

Norwich - Doncaster

Bet: Norwich -1ah
Odd: 1.85 Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10

Championship

Derby - Hull

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Two teams going in opposite directions. Derby are winless in last seven games, one win of last 13 (against bottom side Preston), nine defeats in those 13 and somehow managed to lose at Crawley in FA Cup. Hull are without a defeat in last eight, Matty Fryatt is top class signing in my opinion and I can see them extending this good run of results.

Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 2.11 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Nottingham Forest - Cardiff

Forest ended their run of six consecutive league wins with hard fought draw vs QPR, and then made everything but expected slip at Scunthorpe. They haven’t lost at home for 34 encounters, but have a tendency to make draws against top half sides. QPR 0-0, Norwich 1-1, Leeds 1-1, Millwall 1-1 and this season defeated only Swansea 3-1. Majewski is still suspended.

Cardiff are second and are undefeated in last nine competitive games (five draws). They have best record against top-half sides with seven wins and four draws out of 16 matches. They also have a nice record at City, haven’t suffered a defeat in last six visits (last time at 1975). Defender Paul Quinn is in doubt, Chopra and Bellamy should start.

Usually I don’t even look on that market, but I’m going for a draw here.

Bet: Draw
Odd: 3.40 various
Stake: 3/10

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