Watford - Norwich

Watford have lost three games in a row (‘Boro, Coventry and Hull) and seems already gave up from a play-off spot. They are on my black list, simply they win when nobody wants them to win. And this is game just like that, they have no real motivation, but can play fully relaxed and score. When we talk about scoring, Watford at home have unreal average of 3.2 goals per a game (36-28 goal difference at 20 games). No injury concerns for boss Malky Mackay.

Norwich, on the other hand, are fighting for a direct promotion. They’re second with a point more than Welsh duo Cardiff and Swans. In the previous round, they suffered a heavy defeat at Swans 0-3 and ended a run of nine games without defeat. Interesting fact is, under Paul Lambert (since August 2009), they haven’t made a two defeats in a row. On the other hand, they have bad record against tonight’s hosts. Norwich won just once in last seven occasions (both at home and away) and lost five of them. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is rated as in doubt.

I expect from Norwich to bounce back and they should be closer to win. And when Watford are losing (same when winning) they do it in series. But, also expect an open game with both sides scoring. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 various
Stake: 8/10
.
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Leicester - Norwich

Leicester did lose at North London against QPR, but actually were the better side and missed two sitters before conceded a late loser. They’re now big five points far from a play-off zone and will be certainly looking for all three points. Interesting fact is they haven’t failed to score at Walkers since SG Eriksson took the charge, 13 games and total of 30 goals! No injury worries, same squad is available.

Norwich have noticed only a draw against poor Preston side, mainly because their relaxed attitude (in previous at home, also drew against another poor side Doncaster). They’re in much better position than the hosts, but missed the opportunity to occupy second spot. They also have an interesting fact and it is Norwich have never made two consecutive defeats under Paul Lambert (88 games)! If we consider 1-1 against Preston as a defeat (I think it’s fair), their good performance is in front. Also, only QPR took more points on the road, they have scored in 10 of last 11 away games (in 31 of 35, both at home and away).Defender Whitbread is doubt, Edwards could make a first start and replace him.

Leicester are probably closer to win, but I think goals would be a better call. First game on Carrow Road ended 4-3, this one also smells on high scoring affair. Both to score should be the second option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10
p
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Barnsley - Norwich

Barnsley are a decent host at Oakwell, with 8 wins, five draws and three defeats against top sides Burnley, Cardiff and Leicester. However, they’re in the middle with same distance from play-off and relegation zone and very likely will finish at the same place. Despite their good result at Leeds for the weekend, their recent shape isn’t something special (two points of possible 12). Just two wins out of last eight games in the league, against poor Preston and Donny. Skipper Foster and midfielder Colace will remain sidelined. Another two midfielders, Doyle and Mellis will face a fitness test.

Norwich are flying high at 5th position, they lost just one game of last 12 and their play-off ambitions looks reasonable. However, they only drew at home in midweek encounter against Donny which was everything but expected. Seventh Leicester have an easy game against Coventry at home and Norwich needs the points to keep the distance. They haven’t lost against Barnsley in last 10 occasions (both at home and away) and despite I don’t pay too much attention on history results, this record could have a serious affect on the self-confidence (of both sides). No injury worries for Paul Lambert.

Usually I have some problems to opposite Barnsley at Oakwell, but this time really fancy Norwich to bounce back and win. Bigger ambitions, more motivation, better shape and surely better squad. I’m pretty sure they won’t lose.

Bet: Norwich 0.0
Odd: 1.88 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
p
Support the blog and open a betting account using the banners from the left. You'll get some free bets as well.
Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.
p

Norwich City – Gillingham

The Canaries made a great victory in the previous round, beating Charlton away 1-0. Now, need just one point to be League One champions. Carrow Road has been sold out, players will get the medals and trophy after the game (if they draw at least, of course). Norwich are the best home side in the league, noticed 16 wins of 21 home games with impressive goal difference 46-20. Midfielder Wes Hoolahan is injured and will probably miss the game, but skipper and top goal scorer Grant Holt (24 goals) returns after serving a two-game ban. Boss Paul Lambert got one match touchline ban.

Gillingham made a first class surprise defeating Leeds last Saturday, scored three times for the first half an our (3-2 at the end). They made a distance from a relegation line (3 points with 3 rounds left) and can play with little less pressure. Good thing is in last two rounds, they’ll host the Saints (who gave up from play-off) and will visit Wycombe (will probably relegate till then) at the last day. So, they have very good chance to stay in the league. On the other hand, they’re the worst travelers in the third tier, noticed just six points (six draws) of 21 games on the road with shocking goal difference 13-44 and didn’t score in six of last seven! Skipper Barry Fuller faces surgery to repair a broken nose and is likely to miss out, defender Gowling serves the suspension and another defender Richards with a broken toe is long-term absentee.

Norwich is top class team, now finally can play without any sign of pressure and I expect a very good game from them. The Gills are simply too poor to spoil the celebration. Intention to maybe snitch a one point will probably bring them few more goals conceded. Bet is -1.25ah at 1.93, Pinnacle.

Available free bets, bonus offers and promotions:
Expekt - First deposit bonus up to €35 / £25 for all new customers
Make your first deposit at expekt.com and we will immediately double your money up to max €35 / £25. Take these 3 easy steps to start profiting from sports betting: 1.Register an account with expekt.com here. 2.Deposit a minimum of €10 into your expekt.com account. 3.Send an email to 35eurbonus@expekt.com with your customer number and deposit amount included. The bonus amount up to €35/£25 will be added to your account within 48 h

Saturday's gossip column

TRANSFER GOSSIP

Chelsea are ready to swoop for £36m Wolfsburg striker Edin Dzeko, the Stamford Bridge outfit are ready to offer straight cash for the big Bosnian front man, where as fellow suitors AC Milan want to try and do a swap deal.(Daily Mirror) 
Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp says striker Robbie Keane will only leave White Hart Lane if someone offers £50m for him. Aston Villa and Celtic are interested in the 29-year-old Republic of Ireland forward. (The Sun) 
Meanwhile, Spurs are locked in a £7m race with Lyon to sign Dinamo Zagreb defender Dejan Lovren, 20.(The Sun) 
Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger has confirmed he is considering re-signing Sol Campbell - it would be the first time Wenger has re-signed a player for the Gunners.(Daily Mirror) 
However, despite having a transfer budget of about £35m, Wenger insists he does not need to buy a striker as Nicklas Bendtner is set to resume full training next week. (The Independent) 
Liverpool are tracking Wolves utility man Richard Stearman, the 22-year-old can play right-back and centre-half and manager Rafael Benitez sees the former England under-21 man as ideal cover for the injured Glen Johnson. (Daily Mirror) 
Wigan manager Roberto Martinez is ready to table a £4m bid for Sporting Gijon's Spain Under-21 left-back Roberto Canella - who also interests Aston Villa. (The Sun)
Fulham are considering a move for 26-year-old Panathinaikos winger Dimitris Salpigidis. The Greece international, who is available for £1m, has also attracted interest from Birmingham and Stoke. (Daily Mail) 
West Ham have made a bid to sign Belarus striker Sergey Kornilenko, 26, on loan from Zenit St Petersburg. (Daily Mail) 
Manchester City are keen on signing Crystal Palace's £5m-rated 19-year-old striker Victor Moses. Palace are understood to have already received a £1.5m offer from Championship side West Brom. (The Independent) 
West Ham boss Gianfranco Zola is hopeful of signing a new striker next week. With Carlton Cole out injured, the Hammers have been linked with former Upton Park man Marlon Harewood, surplus to requirements at Aston Villa. Stoke's James Beattie and Eidur Gudjohnson of Monaco are also in the frame. (Daily Star) 
Sunderland manager Steve Bruce insists striker Kenwyne Jones is not for sale. Birmingham are weighing up an £11m bid for the Trinidad & Tobago star while Liverpool, Arsenal and Stoke are all admirers of the big striker. (Daily Star) 

OTHER GOSSIP

Newcastle fans have pledged more than £50m to buy out owner Mike Ashley and take control of the club. The scheme is fronted by the Newcastle United Supporters Trust. (The Mirror)
Burnley are set to offer Leeds boss Simon Grayson five times his current pay deal to become their new boss after Owen Coyle left for Bolton. (The Mirror) 
Manchester City have insisted on a six-month get-out clause with new midfielder Patrick Vieira, just in case the former Arsenal star fails to make the grade at Eastlands.(Daily Mirror) 
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger has sent out a clear message to Real Madrid and Barcelona - Cesc Fabregas will still be an Arsenal player next season. The 22-year-old midfielder's contract runs to 2015. (The Sun) 
Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti has warned midfielder Joe Cole that his performances will have to improve if he wants to be part of England's World Cup squad. (Daily Mirror) 
Norwich manager Paul Lambert has emerged as a leading contender to replace Owen Coyle at Burnley.(Daily Mail) 

AND FINALLY

Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson is so fed up with freezing conditions ruining training that will take his players to Dubai if Saturday's game at Birmingham is called off.(The Sun)

www.bbc.co.uk

Millwall - Colchester Utd.

Millwall holds third position in League One. It seems they can't drop under the play-off line, 10 points more and a game less than 7th Tranmere. But, they see their chance for direct promotion. Five points and game less than 2nd Peterborough Utd., if they win Colchester will be two. Plus, Peterborough will face Oldham away for the weekend, Millwall will host Walsall. Millwall won six from last seven games, loosing only against Leicester City (at home 0-1). Very interesting fact is all games they won with a goal difference (four times 1-0). Maybe it says something about the mental strength, surely I don't think it is a luck. Big problem for tonight's game is missing Neil Harris (club's legend) because of a facial injury, meaning on-loan striker Jason Price should step in. Defender Richard Duffy faces a late fitness test while midfielder Nadjim Abdou (personal reasons) is doubtful.

Colchester Utd. lies on 13th position with no real chance to move up or down. But, the problem with this squad is their crazy spirit. In one round they loose against Crewe at home 0-1, in the next game play excellent and grab a point against the best league team away, Leicester City 1-1. They have no motive, play for fun. They are bad against outsiders, but thirsty for blood against favorites. Typical team for avoiding. Boss Paul Lambert could name an unchanged starting eleven. They will be without midfielder Johnnie Jackson (hamstring) while defender Chris Coyne is still on international duty with Australia.

Usually, I would skip this one, watching my own business, but poor football offer forced me to think about it. Pinnacle offer 1.88, Expekt 1.80 for home win. I don't think it worths of serious bet. I will gamble, small stake. Odd for handicap win is about 3.00 and I'll take it. Last han. win was against Leeds United 18.10.2008.! (Yes, I have crazy spirit, too.) Anyway, what else you can do on tuesday night?!