Championship betting, Nott Forest - Cardiff

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Instead to be contenders for play-off, Forest are under a serious relegation threat (first under the line, at the moment). They have five defeats out of last six (one draw) and haven’t score a single goal in those. (Now when I’ve noticed, they’ll probably smash one in the opening 10 minutes!) At home, three defeats in a row and every of them looks a bit embarrassing. First trashing from Leeds 0-4, then 0-1 defeats vs. Palace and Posh.

Cardiff have only one defeat of last 13 competitive games, unlucky one at home vs. ‘Boro. They’ve noticed only two away defeats of season’s 12 and are undefeated in last six, but have played too many draws lately (7 of 12 away). Oppositely from the hosts, they are serious promotion contenders (as every year though).

My impression is such high odds on visitors are based more on Forest’s reputation then on recent results and potential. I am covering a draw, but expect Cardiff to nick one for 0-1.

Bet: Cardiff 0.0
Odd: 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Championship Betting - 13:45 cet

Swansea - Sheff Utd

The reasons I wrote yesterday apply.

Bet: Swansea -1
Odd: 1.86 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10 
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Crystal Palace - Nottingham Forest

Palace will stay in Championship. They secured the status mainly with great home run of results with only one defeat out of last 15 games at Selhurst Park. Interesting fact is all but one of those 14 were draws, or wins by one goal.

Forest need a point to be mathematically in play-off, but even without it it’s hard to believe Leeds will be able to jeopardize their spot. Same is with their chances to leapfrog Reading.

I expect a relaxed game without any pressure. Palace wouldn’t like to lose in the last home game, Forest won’t push for a win and will just try to avoid defeat keeping the momentum for play-off. My gamble of a day is draw.

Bet: Draw
Odd: 3.60 Ladbrokes

Stake: 3/10   

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Championship 30 Apr - Preview of the round, betting tips and previews

Nottingham Forest - Scunthorpe

The most interesting will be the fight for the last play-off space. Forest have clear calculation. They’ll get it with six points from games against, all but predictable, Scunny at home and Palace on the road that could be a real last day cracker. The main problem is defence line that conceded 17 goals on last 7 games. Scunny could be able score and push this game in over. But also, a sensation is not a strange word for the visitors. They defeated Forest at home, where also trashed the leaders QPR (4-1). On the road shocked Hull and Reading. It’s an easy choice to leave this game alone.

Leeds - Burnley (1:45 cet)

Leeds need to win both times (in last round they’ll visit QPR who btw. could face a penalty and points deduction at Tuesday) and to hope Forest (and Millwall of course) will slip somewhere. After they wasted many points in last five rounds it’s not so big chance, but Leeds are the kings of drama and since the end of golden era in 90s just very few times they haven’t presented a stressful finish to their fans. Burnley noticed only a draw at home vs. Pompey, it could affect their morale but they’re still one point above Leeds. Draw is unacceptable for both sides and whoever will take a lead, will also try to improve goal difference for the final ranking. I could give some advantage to Leeds, but my main choice will be goals.

Millwall - Swansea

There will be hell, the Lions are in the race again and packed Den will host Swans. They won six of last nine games and big boost is a return of their key man and top scorer, Steve Morison, after he served a three match suspension. Swansea have secured their play-off spot where they will probably face Reading. Reasons for a good effort are 4th place (playing re-match at home) and improving recent away record (a draw and four defeats out of last five) and self-confidence before decisive matches. It will be hard, since Swans have a discouraging record on the road against top side teams, losing seven out of nine. Another thing is very interesting. In the previous game, Brendan Rodgers left on the bench probably his best player - Scott Sinclair. He said that young player has never played the full season, looks very tired and he’ll try to manage it. If you’re afraid for the best player, the Den is definitely not a place for him. So, maybe he will just save him for play-off.

Derby - Bristol City

Derby are safe, but looked in a very good shape, putting some more than decent displays recently. Defeated Leeds at home, grabbed a point at Loftus Road and undeservedly lost at Norwich in 96th minute. A win in the last home game could be a satisfaction. This will be also the last game for Robbie Savage and I can expect some additional effort from the players for their skipper. City are also safe, but look like they are already planning summer holidays as they’ve noticed four defeats and a draw out of last five. They will also miss the best striker, Nicky Maynard.

Hull City - Crystal Palace

Hull blew their play-off chances, Palace need a point to be mathematically safe. The hosts haven’t won in 15 of 22 home games, losing vs. bottom sides Scunny and Sheff Utd. Palace are a tough nut to crack on the road recently, taking two points from last two trips (Donny and Leicester). Four of last five games between these clubs ended undecided. This game has a draw written all over it. 

Bet 1: Leeds - Burnley, over 2.50, Odd: 1.80 Interwetten, Stake: 8/10

Bet 2: Millwall -0.25, Odd: 2.11 Canbet, Stake: 8/10

Bet 3: Derby to win, Odd: 2.30 William Hill, Stake: 7/10

Gamble: Hull - C.Palace, draw @ 3.75 bet365, Stake: 2/10

(Early bets, since the odds will probably drop tomorrow.)

*table taken from bet365.com

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Coventry - Hull

Coventry are in a big downtrend as they dropped from 5th place to 18th and could be even involved into relegation battle. They’ve noticed just one win in last 15 matches (Palace at home, 2-1), haven’t kept a clean sheet in last eight and lost last three of four at Ricoh Arena. They also have the worst record against top-half clubs, losing six of eight. Manager Aidy Boothroyd hopes his goalie Westwood will be fit, especially because reserve Ireland is also injured. Striker Marlon King is suspended, another striker Platt will face a late fitness test. Skipper Carsley and defender Turner remain sidelined.

Hull City are actually moving in the opposite direction, they’ve climbed up to 9th  position and still carry the play-off hopes. They’re the best travellers in Championship, haven’t lost in last 13 on the road, including a win in the last away game and ending Forest’s historical home record. They have won half games against bottom-half sides and scored two games in average against the strugglers. Vito Mannone is out and will be replaced by Villa’s on-loan goalie Brad Guzan. 

Great odds on visitors, they’re now raised to 2.20! I predict more misery for Coventry and away win, but dnb option will be absolutely fine. 

Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 2.20 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Nottingham Forest - Cardiff

Forest ended their run of six consecutive league wins with hard fought draw vs QPR, and then made everything but expected slip at Scunthorpe. They haven’t lost at home for 34 encounters, but have a tendency to make draws against top half sides. QPR 0-0, Norwich 1-1, Leeds 1-1, Millwall 1-1 and this season defeated only Swansea 3-1. Majewski is still suspended.

Cardiff are second and are undefeated in last nine competitive games (five draws). They have best record against top-half sides with seven wins and four draws out of 16 matches. They also have a nice record at City, haven’t suffered a defeat in last six visits (last time at 1975). Defender Paul Quinn is in doubt, Chopra and Bellamy should start.

Usually I don’t even look on that market, but I’m going for a draw here.

Bet: Draw
Odd: 3.40 various
Stake: 3/10

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Scunthorpe - Nottingham Forest

At the first glance, Nott Forest look like an obvious choice. Both sides are going in the opposite directions and their recent forms leave no doubt.
But, first I was struggling to find any value in the offered price. 1.70-1.80 for away win in Championship? Then realized Forest actually have Cardiff on the corner in, which I assume, will be a game of the season for them. So, I don’t think they’ll push till their limits tonight, in their minds they will probably be somewhere else, Billy Davies wouldn’t certainly like to see some injuries in the mud of Glanford Park and Forest defeated Scunthorpe just once in last six occasions, both at home and away.
I don’t have any problem to leave this game alone. No bet.

Pity for Cardiff last night...
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Nottingham Forest - Portsmouth

Forest are in a great run of results. Four wins of last five competitive games (three of four in Championship) and haven’t lost at City Ground in 31 occasions! No injury worries for Billy Davies. Skipper Paul McKenna has returned in Preston after two months and came from the bench, perhaps will start today. The target is a play-off spot and I don’t worry they’ll look complacent at any moment.

Pompey have a decent squad and experienced players, but continue with struggling against the problems outside the pitch. Richard Hughes and Michael Brown are out because of “ongoing contract issues”. Dave Kitson and Greg Halford are suspended, while midfielder Lawrence should be fit. Club has brought defender Ritchie De Laet (never heard for him) on loan from Man Utd and he could be in the starting eleven. They’re winless in last five (three consecutive defeats) and in every of last four games conceded three times!

Cannot say I’m delighted with 1.65, but it seems Pompey didn’t deserve more. 2-0 correct score.

More to follow...

Bet: Nott Forest -1ah
Odd: 2.10 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10

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01.01. - three bets

Really not in the mood to type...

Tottenham - Fulham 
Bet: Tottenham -1ah
Odd: 1.82 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

Hull - Leicester
Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 1.99 188bet
Stake: 9/10

Nottingham Forest - Barnsley
Bet: Nott Forest -0.75
Odd: 1.80 StanJames
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend and statistic update

Fourth time I wished to bet on City's game this season and noticed fourth loss! Really great...

Bristol City - Preston 1-1  1/2 LOSS
Watford - Nottingham Forest 1-1  DRAW
Plymouth - Swindon 0-4  WON
WBA - Man City 0-2  LOSS

Statistic:

November
Profit: -5.6 units Yield: -14.36%

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Season
Profit: -33.46 units Yield: -8.25%

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Watford - Nottingham Forest

Despite they were already seen in the relegation battle before the start, the Hornerts made some great results that launched them in the top half of the table. Young players, combat spirit, attacking style with excellent leadership by Malky Mackay are Watford this season. However, they started to losing their breath lately. First Scunny took all three points from Vicarage Road, then they get trashed at Derby in the last round (1-4). Striker Danny Graham, should be fit, but defender Hodson and winger Cowie are sidelined. Watford have won only two of their last 11 home games against Forest.

Forest (as any team under Billy Davies) are well known “slow starters”. Differently from previous seasons, after run of draws they noticed two defeats on the road Barnsley 1-3 and Portsmouth 1-2 (and two wins at home though). Good excuse could be missing of attacking duo Tyson  – Earsnshaw. Both were on the bench in the last round, Earnshaw will start today’s game. They were second rated favorite for winning the Championship, nothing has changed in their potential and I expect them to make a winning streak very soon. No injury concerns for Davies.

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Watford had a surprising start which probably will make their mission easier to accomplish. But for me, they’re still relegation contender and expect their fall on the table. With Forest, situation is completely opposite. I cannot exclude a possibility of another draw, but see visitors as favorites here.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.19 188bet
Stake: 7/10

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Weekend's results and statistic update

Stoke were good, Forest didn't score 2nd, but little of luck came at Shrewsbury where Torquay made an excellent and absolutely unexpected performance. However, it's a profit and good start of October.

Doncaster - Nottingham Forest  1-1  DRAW
Shrewsbury - Torquay  1-1  1/2 LOSS
Stoke - Blackburn  1-0  WON




Statistic:

October
Profit: +3.5 units Yield: +14.00%

Season
Profit: +23.68 units Yield: +9.23%

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Doncaster - Nottingham Forest

Donny like to think about themselves like the dark horses for the play-off, but in reality they’re just an average Championship side. Since they were promoted from third tier, they were 14^th and 12^th with almost same number of points at home and away. Nothing that can suggest their ambitions changed for this season. Decent start of the season, no home defeat so far (2 wins and 2 draws), but in my opinion it’s fair to say none of those 4 teams are cream of the league. Manager Sean O'Driscoll has some problems in defense line. Byron Webster could make his return after long-term absence, but Shelton Martis is out as well as Chambers and Thomas who remain sidelined.

Billy Davies’ slow start pattern continues in this season as well. As a manager of Derby, he noticed first win after 6-7 round, then started topping the table and reached Premier League. Last season in Forest was the same, except he didn’t get promotion. Same story this year, starting defeat at Burnley, then numberless draws and first win in 7^th round. There’s nothing that can make me thinking something is out of Davies’ plan. Almost same team from previous season, same ambitions and I can see them in play-off (at least) at the end. Before this game Davies accepted the role of underdogs(!) and was talking about bad sides of Forest’s recent displays, announced some changes in the team. No, I don’t believe in that. Only important missing is striker Rob Earnshaw, except him it’s a fully fit squad.

Only things that decrease my optimism about this encounter are tradition (that says only Forest’s victory at Doncaster was 1956) and the fact visitors would probably be satisfied with only a point here. But, I can’t see them losing this one and see this odd as a generous offer.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Tuesday's results and statistic update

Good night after all. I was so annoyed when Colchester turned the game from 0-1 to 2-1 and then conceded for a draw. Then I paid attention on the other results... Complete chaos! I wasn't even thinking about Cardiff and QPR, but plenty of shocking results. Leeds, Nott Forest, Bristol Rovers, Hudders, Rotheram, Peterborough... Last 3 weeks in England are real mine field. But... Most important thing. My September is green, finally!!! Yes!

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina  3-0  WON

Colchester - Dag & Red  2-2  LOST

Norwich - Leicester  4-3  WON

Statistic:

September
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +1.65%

Season
Profit: +27.18 units Yield: +12.11%

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A decent day and profit

Millwall 3 - 2 Swindon T.  WIN

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Blackpool 2 - 1 Nottingham F.  WIN

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Norwich C. 0 - 2 Carlisle U. 

Southampton 3 - 1 Southend U.  LOSE

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Leeds U. 2 - 1 Bristol R.  LOSE

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Blackpool - Nottingham Forest

Ian Holloway is doing a great job in Blackpool. Differently from previous seasons, club started to collect points on the road and with great home displays reached the play-off. They’ve lost at home just four times (of 23) with goal difference 46-22. There’s also visible a very good chemistry between him and the players (especially during the Christmas crisis when they won once of ten games). Now they’re not just in play-off, but have best momentum of these four teams, noticing 19 points from their last eight games. Statistic says team with the best momentum has gone up nine times out of 20. Striker DJ Campbell is a major doubt with an arm injury, while Hameur Bouazza is still out because of a groin problem.

Forest lost the 2nd spot thankfully to terrible record of the road. At the start of the season, they did not lose any of their first 13. Then defeat to arch-rivals Derby at Pride Park started a run of 10 away trips without a win! It’s fair to say though, some of them were with the mixed team like vs. Blackpool 1-3. Considering momentum, they’re ranked 4th with 12 points out of last eight games and statistically in just 3 occasions of 20, 4th ranked club progress to Premier. With their away shape it makes not so bright picture before visiting hot place like Bloomfield Road surely is. However, Billy Davies will recall several of his first-team regulars. Only doubt is skipper Paul McKenna who can play some part in this game first time after March. Forest are without a win in 11 away matches and have won only one of their last eight matches against the Seasiders.

Big factor here is also the pressure. Blackpool have done that was expected from them. Now they’re underdogs, feel relaxed and can give their maximum in the biggest games in their history. Oppositely, Forest have been prepared for Premier very long time. They lost 2nd spot, but they’re favorites in play-off which could be a rock tied around the neck. I give the advantage to the home team and expect them to win today. Bet is -0.25 ah, best offer is at 188bet 2.14. Also, 5.00 odd for Blackpool to reach Premier should be considered as a nice gamble.

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Voohooo!

Dagen. & Redbr. - Burton Albion 1 @ 1.94  2-1

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Leicester – Watford -0.75 ah @ 1.85  4-1

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Hartlepool United - Colchester Utd. 1 DNB @ 1.85  3-1

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Blackpool - Nottingham Forest 1 @ 2.00  3-1

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Hope you enjoyed. See you tomorrow. Dule

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Blackpool - Nottingham Forest

Blackpool are serious play-off contender, they’re 7th with two points less than Swansea and next three rounds will be decisive for them. Their recent run of results goes in their favor, as they have four wins of last five games (only defeat was vs. Newcastle on the road, 1-4), three wins were with two goals margin and fourth was demolishing mentioned Swansea at home – 5-1. At their Bloomfield Road, they’re not generous hosts, have five wins and a draw of last six and again two goals margin were every time except vs. Ipswich 1-0. Ian Holloway is well known as great motivator and no doubt players will put 100% of their effort today. Midfielder Bouazza and forward McPhee are sidelined, while left-back Stephen Crainey and another defender Neal Eardley will face a late fitness test. The Seasiders scored in all of their last 19 home matches and are unbeaten in four matches against Forest (1 win, 3 draws).

Forest have sealed their play-off spot as they theoretically can’t move up or down from it. They had a chance for an automatic promotion, but spoiled it with shameful run of results on the road. They noticed a draw at Bristol and ended a run of eight consecutive away defeats. In last three league rounds, they’ll have problems to find any motivation. Considering latest news, boss Billy Davies intends even to rest some of his key players. Striker Dele Adebola and defender Luke Chambers are carrying the knocks and these two very probably won’t play. Goalie Lee Camp should be rested as well. The biggest motivation today will have fringe players to prove themselves for a place in a team for play-off. 

Unfortunately, odds on home win have been dropping as the news regarding Forest’s absentees come. However, I think this is still a good call. Gamebookers offer 2.00, home win.

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Newcastle 2-0 Nottm Forest

Championship leaders Newcastle United could be promoted to the Premier League as early as the weekend after a hard-fought win over Nottingham Forest.
Should United beat Peterborough and Forest lose to Bristol City, the Magpies will bounce back into the top flight after one season away. 
They secured a 2-0 win over promotion rivals Forest after substitute Shola Ameobi scored in the 71st minute. 
Jose Enrique blasted the ball past Lee Camp for Newcastle's second late on.
Despite a goalless opening 70 minutes, this top-of-the-table clash proved a gripping encounter from start to finish, with Forest playing their part as they looked to bring their run of six away defeats to an end.

Newcastle boss Chris Hughton:
"It's that close. We are where we are and we thoroughly deserve to be where we are and if [winning promotion] happens on Saturday, then no one will be more delighted than me.
"But the most important thing is we have to win first. 
"The nature of our business is you have to enjoy the wins and it will be a nice day tomorrow at the training ground. 
"I'm quite sure everybody will have a spring in their step. But we very quickly have to bring them back down to earth. 
"If we are able to take a spare chunk of what we had tonight into [Saturday's game at Peterborough] then we have got a good chance of coming away with a victory." 
Nottingham Forest boss Billy Davies:
"I'm not admitting defeat, I am saying I think Newcastle United, in my opinion, will finish the job.
"We've got a challenge for second place that is very much still on the go."

www.bbc.co.uk

Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest

Nothing much to say about Newcastle. They’re far best team in Championship and will reach direct promotion. However, thankfully to away displays and numberless draws, their points’ advantage has been melted and they have just a single point more than WBA (have two games in hand though). They’re in the run of 9 games without a defeat, six consecutive wins at home, one was with 2 goals margin other with 3 or more. In total at home they have 15 wins and 4 draws and scary goal difference with 46 goals scored and just 9 conceded! Lovenkrands and Smith are returning, defenders Williamson and Hall as well. Newcastle have won three of their last four matches against Forest, scoring nine goals in the process and conceding only two.

 

Forest are third, they’re 9 points far from WBA and direct promotion and also have a game less. So, theoretically it could be 6 points. But while they’re shinning at home, they’re shape on the road is disgusting and should be a shame for one promotion chaser. Six defeats in a row, against the clubs from the bottom and middle of the table (Derby, Coventry, Doncaster, Leicester, Preston and Barnsley) and just 3 (three) goals scored in those 6! They’ll give their maximum against top side and maybe will try to get closer to 2^nd place but the sad true is they look clueless on the road and if start the game with more attacking attitude it would just make the job easier for the Toon. Defenders Perch and Lynch are in doubt and will face a late fitness test. Forest's win at home in October was their first league victory against Newcastle for 21 years.

 

Newcastle will reach the promotion, it’s out of question. But, they’ll surely try to secure first place for their pride and also haven’t forgotten a defeat on the road vs. Forest  (0-1). On the other hand, visitors should be satisfied with a play-off spot. More courage tonight would only mean more balls in the net. My bet is -0.75 ah at 1.95. 

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Preston – Sheff.Wed.

Preston are in the middle at 12^th place, but just five points far from play-off zone. They’re in the good run of results that recovered their pre-season ambitions. They have one home defeat of last nine encounters, winning top sides like Sheff.Utd. (2-1), Cardiff (3-0) and in last round Nott.Forest (3-2). I think team possess enough quality and with recent results (especially after first half display vs. Forest and 3-0 for 45 min.) they’re focused to keep the momentum and attack play-off. Defender Youl Mawene, left-back Tommy Wiliams and striker Jon Parkin are in doubt and will be assessed. Preston are unbeaten in 15 home league matches against the Wednesday.

 

Owls made a good start under new manager Alan Irvine (ex Preston), but very fast backed to their downtrend. They have four defeats in last five away games (one draw), with just one goals scored in those and ten conceded. That one draw came in the previous rounds vs. Swansea on the road. Wednesday were focused on defending, organized and eventually defended a point. Except fighting spirit, they don’t have to offer too much and I expect their same approach tonight. Additional strength will be Irvine who knows in details most of tonight’s opponent players. The Owls have failed to score in 15 Championship matches this season - more than any other team and scored 13 goals in total (just Peterborough scored less). midfielder Sean McAllister and defender Lewis Buxton are in doubt.

 

Those two clubs will have the opposite motives, but with the same intensity. Difference is Preston is actually in a good shape, while Wednesday usually struggling to keep 0-0. Quality difference is obvious, atmosphere in Preston is very good and I see them as winners. Pinnacle offer 2.07. Home win.

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Will post one gamble before the kick-off.

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