Championship betting, Bristol City - Doncaster

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After Derek McInnes took the charge Robins made a promising start with four wins out of five, but lost the breath soon after that. However, they’ve been showing some signs of improvement lately with two wins out of last three (against leaders S’ton (away) and Millwall at home). Skipper Liam Fontaine will miss again.

Donny are second from the bottom and their prospects don’t look good at all. They’ve noticed 11 defeats out of 13 on the road (five in a trot), conceding an average of 2.38 goals per a game.

City have some certain quality, if not for a play-off then for middle definitely. This is a six-pointer and I think their motivation isn’t questionable. If they stop Billy Sharp (six of last seven goals for Donny), City will take this one comfortably.

Bet: B.City -0.5
Odd: 1.93 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10
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Championship betting, Brighton - Doncaster

After a superior season in 3rd tier, the Seagulls probably couldn’t wish a better opponent for a first game in Championship. As every newcomer, their enthusiasm will be highest at the start. In fact, when I think a little bit better, they maybe even have some chance for good result. Poyet made a first class surprise and beat other rivals for a Craig Mackail-Smith’s signature (35 goals last season in League One). 

Donny were one of the worst travellers last season and conceded 50 goals in 23 away games. They haven’t strenghten the team too much (I’ve noticed Giles Barnes from WBA) and probably one more season of struggling is in front. However, they usually have a good start of the campaign and maybe they can surprise today.

I was in dilemma, home win or goals. Brighton will have to adopt to their new home, Falmer Stadium (will probably be packed though). They scored 54 goals in League One at home and got huge quality in Mackail-Smith. On the other hand, both sides play a nice passing game that usually produces some goals. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet 
Stake: 6/10

One more...

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Leicester - Norwich

Leicester did lose at North London against QPR, but actually were the better side and missed two sitters before conceded a late loser. They’re now big five points far from a play-off zone and will be certainly looking for all three points. Interesting fact is they haven’t failed to score at Walkers since SG Eriksson took the charge, 13 games and total of 30 goals! No injury worries, same squad is available.

Norwich have noticed only a draw against poor Preston side, mainly because their relaxed attitude (in previous at home, also drew against another poor side Doncaster). They’re in much better position than the hosts, but missed the opportunity to occupy second spot. They also have an interesting fact and it is Norwich have never made two consecutive defeats under Paul Lambert (88 games)! If we consider 1-1 against Preston as a defeat (I think it’s fair), their good performance is in front. Also, only QPR took more points on the road, they have scored in 10 of last 11 away games (in 31 of 35, both at home and away).Defender Whitbread is doubt, Edwards could make a first start and replace him.

Leicester are probably closer to win, but I think goals would be a better call. First game on Carrow Road ended 4-3, this one also smells on high scoring affair. Both to score should be the second option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Leeds - Doncaster

Leeds are holding a play-off spot, but haven’t won in last three games. They suffered 3-0 defeat at Swans, but played pretty well actually and were unlucky to stay empty handed (referee’s mistakes unlucky). They’re top scorers in Championship with 62 goals (conceded 55), while their 17 games at Elland have produced 64 goals (3.76 in average)! Johnson returns after suspension,  Connolly remains sidelined, Lloyd Sam is struggling with a virus.

After a horrible run of results, Donny’s injury list started to decrease and results have been improving. They’re undefeated in last three and are boosted with midweek away win at Derby. At that game, playmaker Stock and finisher Sharp (two goals) returned to the team. Donny’s 17 games on the road have produced 60 goals (3.53 average) and they’ve kept just one clean sheet!

Leeds are certainly the favourites here, but not sure does it worth at 1.65. On the other hand their attacking attitude and Donny’s passing style should guarantee an entertaining afternoon at Elland Road. Backed with strong statistical data, I think there shouldn’t be a room for mistake. I’m on goals.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.70 Expekt
Stake: 8/10
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Championship - Feb 22

I'm very busy, so just a pick. Tomorrow, maybe one more.
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Championship 

Norwich - Doncaster

Bet: Norwich -1ah
Odd: 1.85 Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10

Championship

Derby - Hull

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Two teams going in opposite directions. Derby are winless in last seven games, one win of last 13 (against bottom side Preston), nine defeats in those 13 and somehow managed to lose at Crawley in FA Cup. Hull are without a defeat in last eight, Matty Fryatt is top class signing in my opinion and I can see them extending this good run of results.

Bet: Hull 0.0
Odd: 2.11 188bet
Stake: 8/10
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Millwall - Doncaster

Millwall have noticed five home wins in a row, scored 12 in those and conceded only once. Despite the injury time defeat at Norwich, they’re still at the top side of the table with four points far from a play-off spot. Kenny Jackett is without striker Steve Morison.

Home victory over Burnley in previous round ended Donny’s poor run of three consecutive defeats in league (conceded eight in those). They also conceded 10 goals in last three on the road in league (and five in Cup defeat vs. Wolves). Certainly the biggest threat at the Den will be striker Billy Sharp who scored all five goals in their three away defeats.

No big philosophy here. I’m little late since odds are dropped from 1.92 to 1.80, but I’ll take it as a handicap with hope for two goals margin. 3-1 correct score.

 One more...

Bet: Millwall -0.75
Odd: 2.00 Stan James
Stake: 7/10

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Weekend's results and statistic update

Stoke were good, Forest didn't score 2nd, but little of luck came at Shrewsbury where Torquay made an excellent and absolutely unexpected performance. However, it's a profit and good start of October.

Doncaster - Nottingham Forest  1-1  DRAW
Shrewsbury - Torquay  1-1  1/2 LOSS
Stoke - Blackburn  1-0  WON




Statistic:

October
Profit: +3.5 units Yield: +14.00%

Season
Profit: +23.68 units Yield: +9.23%

See all bets

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Doncaster - Nottingham Forest

Donny like to think about themselves like the dark horses for the play-off, but in reality they’re just an average Championship side. Since they were promoted from third tier, they were 14^th and 12^th with almost same number of points at home and away. Nothing that can suggest their ambitions changed for this season. Decent start of the season, no home defeat so far (2 wins and 2 draws), but in my opinion it’s fair to say none of those 4 teams are cream of the league. Manager Sean O'Driscoll has some problems in defense line. Byron Webster could make his return after long-term absence, but Shelton Martis is out as well as Chambers and Thomas who remain sidelined.

Billy Davies’ slow start pattern continues in this season as well. As a manager of Derby, he noticed first win after 6-7 round, then started topping the table and reached Premier League. Last season in Forest was the same, except he didn’t get promotion. Same story this year, starting defeat at Burnley, then numberless draws and first win in 7^th round. There’s nothing that can make me thinking something is out of Davies’ plan. Almost same team from previous season, same ambitions and I can see them in play-off (at least) at the end. Before this game Davies accepted the role of underdogs(!) and was talking about bad sides of Forest’s recent displays, announced some changes in the team. No, I don’t believe in that. Only important missing is striker Rob Earnshaw, except him it’s a fully fit squad.

Only things that decrease my optimism about this encounter are tradition (that says only Forest’s victory at Doncaster was 1956) and the fact visitors would probably be satisfied with only a point here. But, I can’t see them losing this one and see this odd as a generous offer.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Carling Cup 10-11.08.

Here’s some interesting infos about games tonight. It could help if you already have some opinion. Otherwise, could be confusing. Enjoy.

My pick(s) will follow.

 

Plymouth have gone out in the first round in 15 of the last 17 years, including the last two.

Aldershot have lost their last four first-round ties in this competition.

Barnsley have not won a competitive home game since 16 March (v Nottingham Forest).

Rochdale have only qualified for the second round once in their last eight attempts. They have lost last five away matches, scoring just one goal.

Bradford have lost at this stage in each of the last four years. They are chasing a fourth successive home win.

Forest are unbeaten in seven matches against the Bradford (W5, D2).

Since returning to the Football League, Carlisle have only been knocked out of the League Cup in the first round once (against Burnley in 2005).

Huddersfield have lost their last three League Cup ties away from home.

Chesterfield have only won one of their last seven first-round ties in this tournament.

Boro have won only one of their last nine away games.

Derby have lost their opening League Cup game in five of the last seven seasons.

Since returning to the Football League in 2003, Doncaster have only failed to progress beyond the first round once (losing to Notts County in 2008).

Accrington have never won a League Cup tie away from home. This is Accrington's fifth season in the League Cup. They are aiming to reach the second round for the third time. Nottingham Forest (2006) and Walsall (2009) are the only clubs Stanley have knocked out of the competition in their history.

It is five months since the MK Dons last recorded a home victory: 3-1 against Swindon in League One on 9 March.

Dagenham & Redbridge are seeking a first-ever League Cup victory.(3 defeats,so far)

Rotherham have fallen at the first-round hurdle only once in nine years. They knocked out Sheffield Wednesday, Wolves and Southampton in reaching the fourth round in the season before last, and Derby in the first round last season.

Charlton have not won or scored in this competition for three years.

Southampton have only ever been eliminated in the first round of the competition twice (1961 and 2007).

Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row.

Stockport have been knocked out in the first round of the League Cup in five of the last six years.

Wycombe have not managed to win a single match in the League Cup since their club record run in 2006/07 when they made the last four. The Chairboys have lost three of their last four League Cup matches by 4-0 margins, including the last two.

Crystal Palace - Bristol City

Thankfully to 10 points penalty, Palace are fighting to avoid relegation instead for play-off. They’re 21^st with same number of points as first under the line Sheff.Wed. (Palace have one game more to play). Ex-boss Warnock, left the club (to QPR) and it was a big hit, but club’s management (their PR office) did an excellent job showing him as a traitor who looks for more money. So, dressing room atmosphere is good again and after three consecutive defeats (all at home), Eagles noticed a hard fought draw on the road vs. Doncaster and in last round home win against play-off contenders Sheff.Utd.. The morale has been boosted, but  they have to continue winning. New manager, Paul Hart, has one injury doubt, midfielder Neil Danns. Palace have won their last four home league games against Bristol City.

 

The Robins are five points far from relegation zone, they have only one win in last ten games, while on the road have a winless run of seven games (just two wins in total this season). In those seven games, they scored just once! They’re typical home side and away City play very defensively trying with counter-attacks and individual efforts of Nicky Maynard (who is usually cut off from the play). The problem for this game is defensive line which is a base of they play suffered a disaster in previous round at home vs. Doncaster and conceded five goals (2-5). So, confidence won’t be on the highest level. They’ll also fight against statistics which say City haven’t won at Selhurst Park since December 1961. Boss Johnson can not count on forward Evander Sno and midfielder Elliot. Midfielder Brian Wilson, defenders Jamie McCombe and Jamie McAllister also continue to struggle with the injury problems.

 

This will be a hard battle and I don’t expect too many goals. Who score first will probably win. Team quality, current shape, motivation, and a manager are the main factors here (beside home ground). Don’t think visitors can resist. Home win. 1.95 at 888sport.

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Championship preview

The race for promotion and the battle to avoid the drop remains intriguingly poised in the Championship. 
There are just seven games to go in the 2008/09 campaign, for most sides, but the picture at opposing ends of the table remains unclear.

Wolves continue to lead the way, by three points, and they will be hoping to consolidate that standing on Saturday when they travel to struggling Nottingham Forest.
Any slip-up from Mick McCarthy's side will be hoping to be pounced upon by second-placed Birmingham, who entertain Norwich this weekend.

Reading remain in the hunt for a top-two finish and can take another step towards the automatic promotion places when they travel to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace in front of the Sky Sports 1 cameras.

With Sheffield United and Cardiff not in action until Sunday, Burnley can strengthen their grip on a play-off place with a positive result on the road at Plymouth.

Preston will be hoping to force their way back into the top six when they travel to the capital to face rock-bottom Charlton.

Bristol City will also have eyes on the promotion-chasing pack when they take on faltering Queens Park Rangers at Loftus Road.

Swansea will hope to get back to winning ways when they make the trip to Sheffield Wednesday, while Ipswich play host to rejuvenated Watford.

Doncaster could move into the top half of the table if they can recover from back-to-back defeats and take maximum points at Coventry.

Saturday's final two games then pitch Blackpool and Southampton, and Derby and Barnsley head-to-head in proverbial relegation six pointers.
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