Blackpool - Nottingham Forest

Ian Holloway is doing a great job in Blackpool. Differently from previous seasons, club started to collect points on the road and with great home displays reached the play-off. They’ve lost at home just four times (of 23) with goal difference 46-22. There’s also visible a very good chemistry between him and the players (especially during the Christmas crisis when they won once of ten games). Now they’re not just in play-off, but have best momentum of these four teams, noticing 19 points from their last eight games. Statistic says team with the best momentum has gone up nine times out of 20. Striker DJ Campbell is a major doubt with an arm injury, while Hameur Bouazza is still out because of a groin problem.

Forest lost the 2nd spot thankfully to terrible record of the road. At the start of the season, they did not lose any of their first 13. Then defeat to arch-rivals Derby at Pride Park started a run of 10 away trips without a win! It’s fair to say though, some of them were with the mixed team like vs. Blackpool 1-3. Considering momentum, they’re ranked 4th with 12 points out of last eight games and statistically in just 3 occasions of 20, 4th ranked club progress to Premier. With their away shape it makes not so bright picture before visiting hot place like Bloomfield Road surely is. However, Billy Davies will recall several of his first-team regulars. Only doubt is skipper Paul McKenna who can play some part in this game first time after March. Forest are without a win in 11 away matches and have won only one of their last eight matches against the Seasiders.

Big factor here is also the pressure. Blackpool have done that was expected from them. Now they’re underdogs, feel relaxed and can give their maximum in the biggest games in their history. Oppositely, Forest have been prepared for Premier very long time. They lost 2nd spot, but they’re favorites in play-off which could be a rock tied around the neck. I give the advantage to the home team and expect them to win today. Bet is -0.25 ah, best offer is at 188bet 2.14. Also, 5.00 odd for Blackpool to reach Premier should be considered as a nice gamble.

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Watford - Derby County

Watford so far is the biggest surprise of the second tier. Considering players’ potential and financial problems they should be contenders for relegation. But their recent run of results and especially performances give the hope their shape could be continued. Hornets have four consecutive home wins and all of them were with two or three goals margin. Their pitch has been using for rugby games, along football and usually it’s very hard for visiting teams to adjust on it. Also, despite some defeats on the road Watford gave a decent resist in all of them. Midfielder Henri Lansbury, who missed Monday's win against QPR with a hip problem, faces a late fitness test, while skipper Jay DeMerit, who has had an eye injury, could be in the starting line-up for the first time since August.

Derby hold 17th place, four points far from relegation zone. Usually they collect points at their Pride Park, while on the road have noticed only three points from ten games! Away strategy is simple and includes defending with all players and trying to keep goalless draw. They haven’t scored in last five away games. Considering their recent shape and potential, I think they’re one of the clubs that will face a hard fight to stay in Championship. For today’s game also have some problems with injured players. Derby could be without Dean Leacock after the defender limped out of Tuesday's draw with Preston with a hamstring injury, while his fellow centre-back Shaun Barker is definitely out with a thigh problem.

My only worry is Watford already have made over-achievement and sooner or later will face a drop in the results. I think that will happen with first injury problems and think they’ll continue their good run. Pinnacle offer 1.95. Home win.

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Derby County - Coventry City

Derby County hold the 20^th position in Championship with just two points more than clubs from relegation zone. They’ve noticed three consecutive defeats, Middlesbrough 0-2 (away), QPR 2-4 (home) and Ipswich Town 0-1 (away). Club has lots of problems with injured players and that is main reason for mentioned bad run of results (midfielder Dean Moxey is the only outfield player who have been on the field for every minute of all Derby's league matches this season). Four key players are sidelined, strikers Chris Commons and Rob Hulse and defenders Dean Leacock and Shaun Barker, while midfielder Jay McEveley has been recovered and is expected to appear tonight. They also have problems with ball transition and lack of creativity in the midfield. They create goal opportunities only after set pieces or shooting from a distance. The Rams have the biggest number of defeats this season (nine), while six of them have been by a single goal - more than any other club. Manager Nigel Clough desperately needs a win tonight, but I don’t see them as, even slight favorites.

 

At the start of the season, club’s officials and manager Chris Coleman were stating that club has an ambition to make one step more comparing with previous seasons and make a break to the play-off position. And season started well, as Coventry defeated Ipswich and Barnsley in opening two rounds. But, soon they went back in poor reality, that is team is consisted of not even average Championship players. Chris Coleman still is one of the most talented managers in second tier and Leon Best (best league player in October) and Clinton Morrison are maybe the best attacking duo in this level, but that’s almost all. The most they can achieve is calling of the most unpredictable club in Championship. Coventry have noticed five games without a win, two draws (Leicester and WBA, both at home) and three defeats (Sheffield Wednesday, Cardiff City and Reading). Also, they failed to score in three of their last four games. Home defeat against Reading was a big blow for Coleman who still has to cope with the absence of first goalie Keiren Westwood. Club brought defender Leon Barnett on-loan deal from   WBA and he has been included in the squad. Their total of 17 points after the first 15 games is their lowest return for four years.

 

Both teams are in bad run and have a lots of problems with scoring. Also injuries on both sides will additionally weaken their quality. Derby have a small advantage in fans at Pride Park, while Coventry  have duo Best-Morrison who finally should score. Both sides won’t risk too much and would be absolutely satisfied with one point. 2.43 at Pinnacle. Draw, correct score 0-0.

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Other picks

Wolverhampton - QPR

After a victory on Pride Park, Wolves are just one step far from Premier. Andy Keogh scored twice in 3-2 victory, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake is recovered for today. Next (and maybe last) obstacle is rich, but demotivated QPR. Three wins and just one defeat in six games wasn't enough for Paulo Sousa to survive on the bench. Gareth Ainsworth has to lead team in the last three games. QPR finish in the middle anyway. I expect a celebrating atmosphere on Molineux and a home win with more than goal difference. Expekt offers 2.45 for handicap and I'll take it. Home handicap win.

Arsenal - Chelsea

Another clash of big rivals. Both sides desperately want to win, but also, both sides have a lots of problems in defence lines that will try to cover with attacking strategy. 2.25 at 888 and Expekt for goals is more than acceptable. Over!

Manchester Utd. - Everton, sunday

Tired giant will face very strong Everton. Despite how much FA Cup means to United, they'll have to rest some players. Everton are rested, focused and dangerous as always. This is stronger than me,  gamble bet on Everton to pass.

To all ortodox, I wish a happy Easter. Христос Воскресе!

Will be back with new posts at Tuesday.

All best,

Dule