League One Betting, 10 December

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Walsall - Charlton

Walsall are fourth from the bottom , have two home wins out of ten and one win out of last 14 in league. Last week played only a draw against poor Dag&Red. They’ll miss Ryan Jarvis, striker who starts his three-match suspension.

Charlton look superior in the third tier. They’re alone on the top (7 points margin), eight wins in a row (six in league, two in Cup) and are scoring for fun (while defence looks rock solid). The fact they play on the road doesn’t mean too much as they’ve noticed eight wins out of ten.

Against Hudders Charlton showed a great domination and quality. Walsall were clueless in last few games and I doubt they can make some serious threats. Expect nice and smooth 0-2.

Bet: Charlton -0.75
Odd: 2.04 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 8/10
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Tranmere - MK Dons

After an impressive start, Tranmere have been slipping on the table and going where, in my opinion, they actually belong - to the bottom half of the table. Five defeats out of last six games and conceded 14 goals in those. The biggest concern is striker, target man Enoch Showunmi. He wasn’t fit at Thursday and seems in best case he’ll be on the bench.

The Dons are doing well, they’re fourth on the table, have six wins in a row (four in league, two in Cup) and scored 23 in those!

I am backing the winning horse here and odds look very appealing.

Bet: MK Dons -0.25
Odd: 2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 7/10
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Statistic update

After free fall in October and November, my primary target was to stop the losing streak and it has been accomplished so far. December is currently green, but I'd be satisfied with zero at the end of the year (wouldn't be delighted though). Season objective is a positive balance. It won't be easy with -50 units, but I'll be working hard as always.
Once again, thanks for visiting lads.
With a hope in better days,
Dule

Sheff Wed - Bristol Rovers 6-2 WON
Stoke - Blackpool 0-1 LOST
Bristol City - Derby 2-0 WON
Tranmere - Leyton 1-2 LOST
Tottenham - Chelsea 1-1 1/2 WON

Updated statistic and list of bets.

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Tranmere - Leyton Orient

Nothing has changed in my opinion, Tranmere are still contender for relegation. But, they know to keep the game tight and actually they’ve been collecting points lately. Three wins and a defeat in last four (all games ended with 1-0 score line). Midfielder Labadie is suspended, while striker Showunmi is in doubt. Good news is midfielder (skipper and ex Liverpool hope) John Welsh and goalie Nielsen are back in contention.

Leyton are in a good shape as they have no defeat in last seven competitive games (five draws). They got lots of publicity after they mid-week clash and 8-2 (!) win (after extra-time) against Droylsden. However, they had to play 80 minutes with 10 players and 30 min with nine on the field. Beside fatigue, big problem is both central defenders were sent off and are suspended for today’s game.

Offered 2.60 for a home win is too high for me and I see some value in backing home side. However, I couldn’t exclude a possibility of another draw. Dnb option for me.

Bet: Tranmere 0.0
Odd: 1.86 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Huddersfield Town - Yeovil Town

Huddersfield have noticed not so good start and only because other top clubs lost some points, they’re 5th with only one point far from the top. Beside home win vs. Charlton, they drew against Bournemouth and missed to break defense of struggling Tranmere (0-0). Seems they spent all the credits given by fans and management which probably will bring a higher amount of seriousness. Two important players, midfielder Anthony Pilkington and defender Lee Peltier, are returning after absence because family reasons.

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Yeovil collected decent 7 points so far, but both wins came at home against two sides that surely will struggle, Leyton and Tranmere. Good result was also surviving at Oldham (0-0), but disturbing was their disability to resist against only average sides in League One (Bristol Rovers 1-2, Hartlepool 0-2 at home) and their crash vs. Notts County (0-4). They have limited potential and I predict them a bottom side of the table. Boss Skiverton has a problem with goalkeeper as his first choice, John Sullivan, picked up an injury. He’ll give a debut to loanee, Stephen Henderson, coach Ben Roberts or youngster Steve Boore. Any of these 3 will have to cope with the pressure and rough life at Galpharm.

 

In my opinion, Hudders have been playing much under their full potential and need one trashing to get on the track. Poor travelers, Yeovil, look like an ideal opposition. 3-0, 4-0 correct score.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah
Odd: 2.10  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Saturday's results

Small loss yesterday, not good. Balance is positive, however.

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Millwall - Hull City 4-0  WIN

Huddersfield - Tranmere 0-0 LOSE

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Statistic:

Profit: +3.37

Yield: +6.18

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Huddersfield Town - Tranmere Rovers

Huddersfield have excellent infrastructure, more than good team for this level of competition, but always stay short for a one step. In my opinion, they’re in top 3 teams this season (beside Sheff.Wed. and S’ton) and maybe this time they can make a serious campaign for a direct promotion. The crucial thing there should be a good start. They hammered Notts County in the first round, 3-0 on the road and also away, defeated Carlisle in the Cup 1-0. At their home, Huddersfield don’t have a mercy. Last season, just one defeat in whole season (14 wins) and goal difference +30. Manager Lee Clark has no injury concerns and will probably name the same squad from the 1^st round.

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Rovers are, in my opinion, main contenders for moving down. Last season were only one point above the line and had a terrible away record with just three wins out of 23 games (defeated were bottom sides Gillingham, Stockport and Wycombe) and scored only 15 goals (conceded 40)! WBA loan signing, Kayleden Brown, could have his debut, but defenders Broomes and Cathalina are out. Midfielders Taylor and Mahon are long term absentees. First round defeat, on the road vs. Oldham 1-2, probably announced a start of a season of struggling for the Rovers.

 

Huddersfield are far above today’s opponent and I could see a goal fiesta here. My only limitation is a possibility to take them easily, although Tranmere’s Cup win over Walsall calls on caution. But with any attitude, they should win this comfortably.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah

Odd: 1.81 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

Hartlepool United - Colchester Utd.

Hartlepool are 16th, seven points far from first under the line Tranmere (Tranmere have a game in hand), but the problem is they’re charged from FA for fielding an ineligible player (Gary Liddle) and could be fined for three points and then would have 45 not 48 on balance. So, they won’t lack in motivation and will go for a win. Their shape at home looks impressive, four wins and a defeat of last five games. All wins were against bottom side clubs, but also all were with two or three goals margin. Defender Sam Collins is probably out after suffering a hip injury against Stockport, while mentioned midfielder Gary Liddle returns to the squad after completing his two-match ban for receiving 10 yellow cards.

Colchester are watching how their play-off dreams vanishing thankfully to their terrible record on the road. They’ve noticed five consecutive away defeats (didn’t score in last three), while in total have just one win of last ten league games. They also weren’t happy last night, watching Huddersfield who beat Milwall, so they’re now six points far from play-off line. My impression is they practically have no chance for 6th spot and they’re all aware of it. Good news is experienced striker Kevin Lisbie will be in the line-up after served his suspension. Same situation is with winger Anthony Wordsworth.

This will be a tough game for sure, but I’m little surprised with the odds for home side and think they’re little higher than should be. I give an advantage to Hartlepool and even DNB with these odds is a very good bet for me. Pinnacle offer 1.85, 1 DNB.
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Gutless Norwich and the sight on Tuesday

It is simple. You can not win with defending. Especially if you play against tough defence as Reading has. Not a single attempt on target for 90 minutes, I think. I lost my money, they lost Championship and that's it. 

In League One, play-off contender Scunthorpe will host relegated Cheltenham. With three points, host will skip 6th Tranmere. Home side is an absolute favorite, but odds for home win are miserable. I fancy over, but the best you can get is 1.65 at Expekt. 

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In other game, Northampton will seek a point to secure their League One status, as they host MK Dons (who already qualified for play-off). Home side have two wins and a draw from last three games. Looks in a good shape. Will try to finish the job tonight, 'cause at Saturday will travel in Leeds, while rivals have easy games at home. Will be without captain Chris Doig (groin), on-loan defender Jared Hodgkiss is set to come in at right-back, while top scorer Adebayo Akinfenwa should start despite not being 100% fit. 

After four consecutive wins and secured play-off, Dons relaxed and lost at home against Walsall. Their only motive tonight can be to finish 3rd and choose Scunthorpe (Tranmere), instead Leeds (Millwall). Will be missing defender Sean O'Hanlon (knee) and on-loan midfielder Stephen Gleeson (ankle).

Usually, I won't bother myself with this one, but Pinnacle offers 2.62 for a home win and I'll follow with a small bet.

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Champions League

Too many talks these days about Barca's superiority. Yes, their team is masterful and it's a real enjoy to watch. But, the fact is in Spain league they always have a space on about 30 metres from opposite goal to accept the ball, look around and make a pass, or do some combination. Don't think Lampard and Essien (followed with others) will allow that. Plus, a duel between Hiddink and Guardiola should give an advantage to visitors. Simply, I don't think any club from any country can play equal with English clubs and see Chelsea as a finalist (Chelsea to pass is about 2.40).  Also, I would like to see Arsene Wenger squad (about 2.30 to pass) as their opponent. Won't bet seriously, just enjoy in footie. But, it is stronger than me to make a sweet, little, gamble combo on "outsiders". Chelsea and Arsenal to pass in final.

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That's all for today, lads. Cheers.