Sheff Wed – Brighton

Wednesday should be main contender for direct promotion from League One and opening two rounds just confirmed my opinion. In the first round defeated Dag&Red 2-0, but should have scored few times more. Only weakness so far, was visible in the first half of second game (Colchester, 1-1 away). Manager Alan Irvine changed his 4-3-3 formation and they were outplayed. In the 2^nd half sent Mellor on pitch and got an equalizer from him. Mellor’s fitness is improving and with Morrison and Tudgay makes a killing trio. However two missings for the Owls, winger Jermaine Johnson and midfielder Tommy Miller.

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Brighton made a very good start of campaign. In the opening day, a great victory away to Swindon (2-1). Looked good as well in the second game dominating against Rochdale, but red card spoiled their plans and a draw at the end. However, Gus Poyet lads should be in the top half of the table at the end of season and no one will take them lightly. They’ll be without 3 important players. Defender Gordon Greer and midfielder Matt Sparrow are suspended, while another midfielder Alan Navarro is injured and will miss the game.

 

Wednesday, in my opinion, have better team than they had in Championship last year. I see them losing points in games where underestimate the opponents. Maybe it looks like a paradox, but Brighton’s seriousness will pull out the best from Wednesday. Home win.

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Bet: Sheff.Wed. -0.5ah

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

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More to follow...

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Man Utd - Newcastle

Personally, I can’t see any value in the offered odds. It’s the opening game and I wouldn’t take Community shield (or friendlies) result too serious. And to be honest, I have no idea what to expect from Newcastle this season. They should avoid relegation, but their capabilities are unknown for me. United are slow starters, same manager through the years and same pattern. They won just one of previous 3 opening games (Birmingham last year, 1-0 at home), other 2 finished with a draws (2008.- Newcastle 1-1 and 2007.- Reading 0-0). So, three unders. Taking some high handicap (-1.75 valued 1.91, or over 2.5 at 1.60) would be like a coin flip. Doesn’t worth for me. NO BET.

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Saturday's results

Small loss yesterday, not good. Balance is positive, however.

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Millwall - Hull City 4-0  WIN

Huddersfield - Tranmere 0-0 LOSE

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Statistic:

Profit: +3.37

Yield: +6.18

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Huddersfield Town - Tranmere Rovers

Huddersfield have excellent infrastructure, more than good team for this level of competition, but always stay short for a one step. In my opinion, they’re in top 3 teams this season (beside Sheff.Wed. and S’ton) and maybe this time they can make a serious campaign for a direct promotion. The crucial thing there should be a good start. They hammered Notts County in the first round, 3-0 on the road and also away, defeated Carlisle in the Cup 1-0. At their home, Huddersfield don’t have a mercy. Last season, just one defeat in whole season (14 wins) and goal difference +30. Manager Lee Clark has no injury concerns and will probably name the same squad from the 1^st round.

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Rovers are, in my opinion, main contenders for moving down. Last season were only one point above the line and had a terrible away record with just three wins out of 23 games (defeated were bottom sides Gillingham, Stockport and Wycombe) and scored only 15 goals (conceded 40)! WBA loan signing, Kayleden Brown, could have his debut, but defenders Broomes and Cathalina are out. Midfielders Taylor and Mahon are long term absentees. First round defeat, on the road vs. Oldham 1-2, probably announced a start of a season of struggling for the Rovers.

 

Huddersfield are far above today’s opponent and I could see a goal fiesta here. My only limitation is a possibility to take them easily, although Tranmere’s Cup win over Walsall calls on caution. But with any attitude, they should win this comfortably.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah

Odd: 1.81 Pinnacle

Stake: 8/10

Millwall – Hull City

Millwall celebrated a come back to the second tier with a trashing of Bristol City, away (3-0). Ok there’s a fact City were without a bunch of regular players, but they’re also tipped as a contender for a play-off. Boss Jackett has a team that looks like entity, hard working side that rarely waste the points. Especially at the Den where they won 10 of last 11 games and in whole previous season (season in League One though) lost just once (in last November)! No injury concerns for Jackett as he has again striker Steve Morison and midfielder Darren Carter after international duty and a suspension. After slight injuries, Liam Trotter and Jimmy Abdou are back in contention as well.

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Hull are tipped as one of the strongest team in Championship and they started well beating Swans 2-0. Nigel Pearson has a decent player for the second tier, but first problem is his key man, Jimmy Bullard, who doesn’t seem interested in playing for Hull any more. Other, probably bigger problem, is their away shape. Last season they were, only team without a win in Premier (6 draws, 13 defeats), in total 24 away league games without a win! Also, their only victory in 17 visits to Millwall was a 1-0 win in the old Second Division in August 1986. Promoted teams have a “first season” syndrome, at demoted teams symptoms are opposite. This could be a painful waking up and crash with the second level reality.

 

Lions surely like to look at themselves at 2nd spot. They have never stopped to dream about Premier and they’ll be putting maximum effort as long as their dream last. I expect a tight game, elbow in the favorite’s teeth  and 1-0 home win.

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Bet: Millwall 0.0ah

Odd: 1.84 188bet

Stake: 8/10

Wednesday's result

Cardiff - Burton 1-1 (4-1 AET)  LOST

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The day of break, will be back soon. 

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Statistic:

Profit: +4.65

Yield: +12.08

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Cardiff - Burton

Cardiff started new campaign with a home draw against Sheff.Utd. (1-1). They can be a little bit disappointed as there was a one way traffic when Utd. got a red card. Defence line isn’t still an iron one, but attacking force is great. For tonight’s game Dave Jones can’t rotate players too much from a simply reason, due to recent transfer embargo he doesn’t have enough players for it! Against Blades, only 4 players were substitutes. Cardiff passed the first round in all but one of the last 8 years and have reached the third round in each of the last 3 seasons. Goalie Tom Heaton will replace injured David Marshall, defender Kevin McNaughton is in doubt and new on-loan signing Seyi Olofinjana won’t be involved.

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Burton is an average League Two side, last season they finished 13^th. Interesting fact is they conceded 71 goals in 46 games which is 3^rd highest number in the league (scored the same number though). Weak defence and attacking approach surely isn’t a way how any team should face Cardiff away. Cup history isn’t bright, as well. Just one appearing, last year and disaster at Reading 1-5. Burton also have one game in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy and lost against Chesterfield with the same result. Defender Darren Moore is injured and probably won’t be risked, the same situation is with the right-back Andrew Corbett. Midfielder Jacques Maghoma is away on international duty with DR Congo.

 

I expect a strong eleven from Dave Jones and have an impression players feel a little bit frustrated after missed to score few more times against Blades at Sunday. This is a perfect opponent to heal their complexes. Chopra (I expect him to start) would like to go. Good, this is a great chance for him to show some skills to the visiting scouts. Against Burton’s defence, he should run the riot.

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Bet: Cardiff -1.25

Odd: 1.95 bet365

Stake: 7/10

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Gamble: Chopra to score hat-trick

Odd: 19.00 bet365

Stake: 0.5/10

Tuesday's results and two announcements

Southampton - Bournemouth  2-0 WON

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MK Dons - Dag & Red  2-1 1/2 WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +12.15

Yield: +39.19%

See all the details about the bets

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I: I was trying to find a service that could guarantee for my bets and statistic. Without too much success as all of them require some decent additional effort and I'm not in the mood for that. So, here's a deal. I won't be editing posts with the bets (results will be published in a new one). Every bet has its post and posting time is before a game. If you aren't sure about my honesty, Google don't lie. : ) 

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II: Live bets are important part. Mainly, I use it to edge my bets. I'll be posting it in the chat box, including odds and stake. If you follow some my bet, be here during the game and see what and when to bet. Remaining of these bets depends from your feedback. No feedback for a while would mean there's no interest and I'll stop publish that.

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I really appreciate any feedback that I get. You have my e-mail, chat and comments. Suggestions, ideas, what you like, what you don't, opinion about some bet... Help me to make this blog even better.

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Lots of friendlies tonight. My focus will be another two games of Carling Cup. Will make a closer view and post a bet(s) if there's any.

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August is always a tough month, this is a great start of the season. Hope you followers enjoy.

Thanks for the visiting and good luck,

Dule