Watford - Leeds United

Watford made a decent start, with an opening win at Norwich (3-2) and two draws (Coventry at home and Hull away). They’re hard working, fighting team, but beside that in my opinion they don’t have to offer too much and still remains as main contenders for relegation. Boss Malky Mackay has a headache about some of his key players. Striker Danny Graham has a groin problem and he’s doubtful. Skipper Eustace, Lee Hodson and Martin Taylor have some injuries, but are expected to play. Watford have won only two of the 10 previous league matches between these clubs.

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After shocking defeat vs. Derby in the first round, Leeds bounced back with a draw at Nottingham and a home win vs. Millwall. Simon Grayson has a decent squad and personally wouldn’t be surprised to see them in play-off, eventually. Biggest problem is back four and Kasper Schmeichel is usually forced to cover all the holes (he’s doing it great btw.). Good midfield and very strong attacking potential. Paynter and Snodgrass will be out for a while, but club signed excellent Ross McCormack from Cardiff and he could have his debut. Leeds have only lost once at Vicarage Road, 0-1 in March 1990.

 

This will be surely a tight affair. I’m surprised with these odds (expected same for both sides). I think Leeds will win this one, but leave some space for a draw.

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Bet: Leeds +0.25ah
Odd: 2.09 188bet
Stake: 7/10
 
That's it for today, lads. Good luck!
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Manchester United - West Ham

United drew at Craven Cottage when already noted 3 points. Two times lead, wasted penalty and 88th minute equalizer made Fergie raging after the game. Main target was defense line that should reacted much better before both goals. Additional thing that makes him nervous is Chelsea and their 12 goals in just 2 games. West Ham game should be a response to those who don’t believe. Rooney is in the team after a stomach bug and he’ll try to back on the track after 13 games without a goal. This is a nice opportunity for raising self confidence. Paul Scholes will probably be rested and replaced with Michael Carrick. United have won 11 of their last 12 league matches at Old Trafford and scored 3.25 goals per game in average. Against West Ham won their last five matches and scored 14 goals in those.

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The Hammers started the campaign in a manner that should announce another bleak season. Two defeats and 6 goals conceded. And while opening loss vs. Villa wasn’t so unexpected, real shock came in the second game with 1-3 home defeat vs. Bolton (side that is well known with defending approach to away games). Team doesn’t look dangerous, midfielders can’t cope and in defense anarchy rules. Considering the funds that have been invested in the squad, despite part of that was hardly wasted (can’t not to think about Diamanti), management probably expects more than a fight for avoiding relegation and Grant could be the first manager in Premier to face exit door. Skipper and main man at the back line, Matthew Upson, should return to the side. West Ham are without an away win in the league since the first day of last season.

 

Situation guarantees a deadly serious approach from United. Proud is damaged, Chelsea are on the top and no European games for a while. I predict a high scoring victory.

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Bet: Man Utd -2ah 
Odd: 1.79 Canbet
Stake: 9/10
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One more probably.
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Millwall - Coventry

Millwall started the returning campaign in a great manner. Defeated in the first round Bristol City on the road (3-0) and home win vs. ex-Premier Hull (4-0). Then scored on Elland Road (Leeds), but managed to concede three times. However, they bounced back in Carling and defeated Premier contender ‘Boro 2-1 (that was 4th win in five matches). They made a fortress of home ground and The Den is not a place where other teams like to go. Boss Kenny Jackett will probably set an unchanged squad. Only absentees are defender Tony Craig and striker Shaun Batt.

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Coventry also made an encouraging start. Two home wins (Portsmouth 2-0 and Derby 2-1) and away draw (Watford 2-2). Against Watford came back from 2 goals down, but against Derby were also struggling and could have lost as well. As always, their main problem is games on the road where collect much less points. For this game, boss Aidy Boothroyd can not count on one important player, striker Lucas Jutkiewicz. Although Coventry are still unbeaten, they haven’t won last six away games (3 draws and 3 lost).

 

As long as Millwall can smell Premiership, they’ll be very strong and dangerous. Especially at the Den (last season, in League One, just a single defeat). Coventry are a decent side, they will probably finish in the top side of the table, maybe even make a threat for a play-off spot, but Millwall away is simply too much. Home win.

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Bet: Millwall to win

Odd: 2.00 Interwetten

Stake: 7/10

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More will follow...

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Tuesday result and statistic update

88th minute shocker... I'm still green.

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Brentford - Hull City 2-1 LOSS

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Statistic:

Profit: +7.62

Yield: +9.13%

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Brentford – Hull City

Brentford started campaign in League One with one draw and two defeats in opening three rounds (good result vs. Swindon last weekend, 1-1 away). In the first round, they defeated League Two side, Cheltenham, 2-1 at home. The Bees don’t have so bright history in Carling Cup as they have not reached round three for 19 years. I think more important for them would be to keep the players fit than to try to boost self confidence tonight. However, striker Carl Cort and winger Sam Wood are injury doubts. Signing from Leicester, midfielder Nicky Adams, could have his debut.

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Hull relegated from Premier, but managed to keep majority of the team from previous season. However, thankfully to the decent amount of arrogance already faced a tough life in the second tier (Millwall 0-4). New signing is Slovenian international, Robert Koren, who already made his debut in last round. I expect him to play again, to get used with the new team mates. Also considering news from Hull camp, they should have a strong line-up. Striker, Craig Fagan, will have to wait for his debut as he has a groin problem. If they qualify, it will be for the 4th time in five seasons.

 

I’m well surprised with these odds on Hull. Big difference in quality should be enough for an away win.

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Bet: Hull -0.25ah

Odd: 2.04 188bet

Stake: 7/10

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Probably one more before kick-off.

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Saturday's results

Bristol City were a shocker, but good day after all. Hope you enjoy.

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Sheffield Wednesday - Brighton  1-0 WON

Bristol City - Barnsley  3-3 LOSS

Birmingham - Blackburn  2-1 WON

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Statistic:

Profit: +14.62

Yield: +19.11%

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Birmingham - Blackburn

Birmingham noticed a great season in their Premier League debut. Especially were good at their home soil when they had just 2 defeats (Villa and Bolton, both in September). Their main problem was limited number of players and as a consequence a big injury list through the season. They haven’t brought too many players and will suffer because of that, but no injury problems right now. New man is 202cm striker Nikola Zigic. I’m very suspicious about his scoring abilities, but his contribution will be to tight central defenders for himself and to allow Jerome to “run around” and some run on the flanks. Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 15 games and defeated Blackburn in last five at St Andrew's.

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Rovers started the season with surprising (but, very lucky at the same time) home win over Everton 1-0. Personally, don’t have too much sympathy for their playing potential. Big Sam led them to 10^th place last season and I would be really shocked to see them higher than that. Also they had a terrible away record last season, won just 3 games of 19 and scored only 13 goals! Key man David Dunn is injured, as well as another midfielder Vince Grella.

 

I've been thinking a lot about this one and can not fully exclude a possibility of a draw. Expect a tight game and home win, but will make a limitation.

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Bet: Birmingham -0.25

Odd: 2.03  Pinnacle

Stake: 7/10

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Bristol City – Barnsley

Season of great expectations started as a nightmare for City. First were trashed at home soil by Millwall (0-3), then maybe even bigger shock was when Steve Coppell left the club. Ex care-taker (now should be permanent boss), Billy Sharp, took the charge and seems managed to stabilize the club. They were good on the road vs. Doncaster and missed to win thankfully to additional time penalty (1-1). Big injury list has been decreasing. Defender Carey is back in the contention, but key man Nicky Maynard is out, as well as defender Kalifa Cisse. The Robins made a double last year against Barnsley and won 4 of their 5 last meetings.

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Barnsley did defeat Palace in the previous round (at home 1-0), but still have big problems with scoring. Even that one was an own goal. Departure of their key striker Daniel Bogdanovic (to Sheff.Utd.) seems to be a bigger blow than they expected. Beside a netting problem, they have a terrible record away from home. Barnsley haven’t won on the road for six months (at Ashton Gate for 17 years). The Tykes will be without two midfielders (both new signings) Jim O'Brien and Goran Lovre.

 

If home side wants to carry high ambitions (in my opinion City could be fighting for a play-off), they simply have to win games like Barnsley at home.

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Bet: Bristol City -0.5ah

Odd: 2.03 188bet

Stake: 7/10

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