Birmingham – Wigan

Birmingham made a decent start of the season with home win against Blackburn and staying undefeated vs. Liverpool as well as in two away games (Sunderland and Bolton). Then came a tragedy for them expressed in derby defeat against WBA 1-3. Team reacted positively and defeated MK Dons in a Cup game. Brum are very good at their St Andrew’s and if they don’t lose today it will be one year without a home defeat! They brought on loan Alexander Hleb from Barca and he should make a great impact on the right flank. Birmingham are in second, usually very dangerous, season in the top crew and avoiding relegation is main objective. To reach that, they must win the games like Wigan at home. James McFadden is injured.

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After just five rounds passed, Wigan already announced their candidacy for moving down to Championship. One very lucky victory (over Spurs on the road, 1-0), one draw (Sunderland at home, 1-1) and three defeats with shocking goal difference 2-13! Wigan have only won one of their last eight Premier games and before Spurs, they had noticed six consecutive defeats on the road. In the previous round, Man City took all 3 points from DW Stadium with Wigan had not a single attempt on a target. They look very bad and I think manager Roberto Martínez is close to face the exit door. Only light in the dark is N’Zogbia’s recent shape, but it cannot be enough to push the whole team. Captain defender, Gary Caldwell, is still sidelined as well as midfielder Cleverley. 

 

It’s a big difference in quality, here. Birmingham will play for the fans as it is first game after WBA and this should be their “best shot” (or very near to that). I’m aware the most of their wins are with a goal margin, but here expect something more.

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Bet: Birmingham -0.75
Odd: 2.12  188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Leeds – Sheffield United

Leeds collected 10 points in the opening 7 rounds which isn’t bad, but in my opinion their displays are over the recent results. They lost in local derby (vs. Barnsley 2-5) in the game that came just 3 days after very hard home encounter against Swansea (2-1, after 0-1 at half time). In the previous round, they overplayed Doncaster, also on the road, but drew at the end. They’ve been showing a plenty of fighting spirit. Two times came from behind, but they’re also the only side in Championship that committed 100 fouls. They should continue the trend from League One when Elland was a fortress and in any game at home, Leeds will be favorite. Simon Grayson has no injury concerns and it will be first time when he can pick from a full squad. Loanee left-back, George McCartney, will probably has his debut.

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Blades sacked his manager, Kevin Blackwell, after home defeat vs. QPR 0-3. Harsh decision, in my opinion, as Rangers seem to be the strongest league club. And United this year won’t be able to repeat the ambitions from previous seasons (play-off). Blackwell’s successor, Gary Speed (ex Leeds player), has been trying to implement his own style of play. Which means battle in whole game, very few goals conceded (three clean sheets in five games), but also very few goals scored (3 goals in those 5). They have lots of problems in creating the chances and they really suffer with the absence of Darius Henderson in the attacking line. Skipper and central-defender, Chris Morgan, is still sidelined. I think their only advantage will be history that says Blades haven’t lost vs. Leeds in the last seven encounters.

 

Leeds will start aggressively and will be keeping that pace during all 90 minutes. I expect their good performances finally change into good results. Blades carry the same style of play and that’s the way how Leeds like opposition to play. Sheffield also obviously lack in quality this season. Blackwell’s departure was a big mistake, Speed won’t stay too long. Home win with some caution.

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Bet: Leeds -0.25
Odd: 1.82  Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10

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Weekend's results and statistic update

Another shocking saturday. Blackburn lost the lead as Dempsey scored forth time in a row against them, Notts County came from 2-0 to 2-2 and good, old Lee Hughes brought a win. Hudders turned 0-2 into 4-2... Good day and decent profit. September starts to look better.

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Blackburn - Fulham  1-1  1/2 LOSS

Notts County - Leyton Orient  3-2  WON

Huddersfield - Yeovil  4-2  WON

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Statistic:

September
Profit: -4.36 units Yield: -6.23%

Season
Profit: +21.00 units Yield: +11.38%

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Huddersfield Town - Yeovil Town

Huddersfield have noticed not so good start and only because other top clubs lost some points, they’re 5th with only one point far from the top. Beside home win vs. Charlton, they drew against Bournemouth and missed to break defense of struggling Tranmere (0-0). Seems they spent all the credits given by fans and management which probably will bring a higher amount of seriousness. Two important players, midfielder Anthony Pilkington and defender Lee Peltier, are returning after absence because family reasons.

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Yeovil collected decent 7 points so far, but both wins came at home against two sides that surely will struggle, Leyton and Tranmere. Good result was also surviving at Oldham (0-0), but disturbing was their disability to resist against only average sides in League One (Bristol Rovers 1-2, Hartlepool 0-2 at home) and their crash vs. Notts County (0-4). They have limited potential and I predict them a bottom side of the table. Boss Skiverton has a problem with goalkeeper as his first choice, John Sullivan, picked up an injury. He’ll give a debut to loanee, Stephen Henderson, coach Ben Roberts or youngster Steve Boore. Any of these 3 will have to cope with the pressure and rough life at Galpharm.

 

In my opinion, Hudders have been playing much under their full potential and need one trashing to get on the track. Poor travelers, Yeovil, look like an ideal opposition. 3-0, 4-0 correct score.

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Bet: Huddersfield -1ah
Odd: 2.10  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Notts County - Leyton Orient

Despite 3 defeats in first 6 rounds, County have been noticing a good start in their debut in 3rd tier. All of those 3 came from league giants, Huddersfield 0-3, Sheff Wed 1-2 and always strong Charlton 0-1. They won both home games against teams that should be main rivals for avoiding relegation (Dag&Red 1-0 and Yeovil 4-0). And their plan is easy, to win the games against direct opponents and collect points at home as much as it’s possible. They won’t care too much about Hudders, Wed, S’ton or Charlton. New loan signing from Blackburn, midfielder Alan Judge, will have his debut, while striker Luke Rodgers is still sidelined.

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Orient started the season in a manner that fully justifies public opinion about them as relegation contenders. Four defeats, draw and one win is probably a trend that will follow them through the season. Beside expected failure against Hudders, shocking were their displays and defeats against neighbors Charlton (1-3, with one player more), Yeovil and in last away game Dag&Red. Boss Slade has a problem in defense line as his key defender, Charlie Daniels, is injured and will face a late fitness test. Club brought a replacement for him on loan from Millwall, experienced Andrew Frampton, but he also got an injury in last round and will be sidelined.

 

County will be fully motivated here, as they have to win games like Leyton at home if wish to stay in the league. They’re still in “debut season” syndrome and I expect their climbing on the table. Home win.

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Bet: Notts County -0.5
Odd: 1.83  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Blackburn - Fulham

Rovers survived a hell in Manchester in last round (City, 1-1) and now have a chance for 3 points. In first four rounds they collected only 4 points, but seems their performance are better that results. Both defeats came after good displays (1-2 away to Birmingham after 1-0 lead and Arsenal 1-2, at home). Their style remains the same, long-balls and bullying attitude which made a great home record. Only 5 defeats in last 32 home games under Sam Allardyce! Big boost should be a return of skipper Ryan Nelsen in the center of defense, while right-back Michel Salgado is in doubt after thigh injury against Man City. Blackburn won 4 and drew 1 of last 5 against Fulham at Ewood Park.

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Mark Hughes at his new job still hasn’t felt a taste of defeat with one win and 3 draws. However, Fulham are poor travelers through the seasons. In previous one, they made terrible record of just one win (and 7 draws) of 19 games! In comparison with that season, they lost excellent Chris Smalling (Man Utd), another key defender Konchesky (L’pool) and of course boss Hodgson, but biggest loss is Zamora who broke the leg vs. Wolves (predicted absence is 5 months). I don’t expect too much from them this season and see Fulham lower than last season’s 12th position. Hughes has lots of problems with injured players. Defenders, Halliche and Stoor, have injuries and are in doubt, while absence of Andrew Johnson limits the options in attack. Fulham haven’t won a league game on the road since August 2009 (20 games) and didn’t score in last 11!

 

My only concern here is Blackburn’s attacking potential and am taking -0.25 instead clear win. Despite recent goals, I’m not so impressed with young duo, Kalinic and Diouf. And most of the team goals come after set-pieces. However, I expect a home win with a clean sheet. 1-0, or 2-0.

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Bet: Blackburn -0.25
Odd: 1.77  bet365
Stake: 9/10

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Saturday's results and statistic update

Couldn't decide what was the bigger shock, City or Wednesday. Can't really remember when all my picks were down at the half time. At least, good-old Leeds turned the game. However, total balance is positive, but September started bad. Hope for the better days.

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Man City - Blackburn  1-1  LOSS

Leeds - Swansea  2-1  WON

Sheff Wed - Carlisle  0-1  LOSS

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Statistic:

September

Profit: -15.3 units Yield: -69.55%

Season

Profit: +10.06 units Yield: +7.37%

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Sheff Wed – Carlisle

Wednesday made a decent start of the campaign which should return them into Championship. It’s no need to talk about their potential. Players like Tudgay, Morrison, Potter, Purse or Mellor are definitely names for the higher level. In my opinion, they have even better team than last season when they were in the second tier. Boss Irvine has on injury concerns as the only missing is winger Jermaine Johnson. Despite the defeat in last round (away to Brentford, 0-1), Irvine will probably set unchanged side.

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Carlisle have noticed a good start without a defeat in 5 opening games. Defeated Brentford and MK Dons, resisted away to Plymouth and Colchester and drew at home vs. Swindon. I have an impression they’ve been playing little over their potential and expect their drop in the results. However, for the visit to Hillsborough manager Abbott can not count on midfielder duo Bridge-Wilkinson and Hurst, while Michalik already made his debut in defense line and is expected to appear again. Defender Danny Livesey remains sidelined.

 

Wednesday are main contender for a direct promotion, look like a mean machine recently (didn’t at Brentford though, but really should have got something from that game) and I can’t see them losing too much points this season, especially at home. With all respect, Carlisle’s role here will be to make, with their 2nd place, Owls serious.

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Bet: Sheff Wed -0.75

Odd: 2.00 bet365

Stake: 7/10
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That's it, good luck to all.
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