Championship final, 5.50 gamble

Reading  - Swansea

I have same feeling for Reading, as I had for Posh. At the first glance two evenly matched sides, but formal hosts seem to have more tactical discipline and for me look better under the pressure. If we expect a nervy game, some advantage would go to them. Their away record shouldn’t be overlooked as well. Reading are without a defeat in league in last nine trips, in last four haven’t conceded (two of those were Leeds and Cardiff re-match). Swans defeated Millwall and made a heroic 10 men performance vs. Forest, but before that automatic promotion were lost on their away games. Two key men in my opinion are Shane Long (of course) and Nathan Dyer (very annoying lad when you bet against Swans). Five of last seven finals ended with 1-0. Shane Long have had a brilliant season, his top performance in the most important game should natural. He to score and Reading to win 1-0 is tasty 29.00. Second scoring option is Ian Harte (same bet for him is 67.00 at Victor Chandler). He already played Champions League semi, he’ll be calm and have scored 10 goals in 30 games for Reading!

After all no serious bet, it is 90mill game (they must be joking!) and it’s more feeling than the facts. Gamble for me would be Shane Long to score and Reading to win @ 5.50 (Paddy Power).

Sorry for late posting. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

Gamble: Long to score and Reading to win
Odd: 5.50 Paddy Power 
Stake: 1/10
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England and Serbia, two bets

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Huddersfield - Peterborough  

No big philosophy here. Two extremely attacking sides and even if Peterborough wish to play one of their tight games, Hudders won’t allow that. Have some ugly feeling in the gut Posh will make it, but will stick to the goals.

Bet: Over 2.5

Odd: 1.80 Expekt
Stake: 8/10

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Vojvodina - Crvena Zvezda

This is clash for 2nd place. Both sides aren’t careless since it would bring two additional weeks for summer rest (winner will start from 3rd round qualifications for Europa League, loser from 2nd) and both coaches stated its importance. Zvezda also celebrate jubilee, 20 years from being European Champions and crowds will be packed. There’s also a little prestige between these two sides. Zvezda play extremely attacking football (with extremely poor scoring ability though), Vojvodina won’t be defending at home. I’m pretty surprised with these odds, I would rather expect something around 1.85. And it’s not like I missed something.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 2.30 William Hill
Stake: 8/10

Crvena Zvezda - Olimpique, 29.5.1991. last penalty and celebration 
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CL betting, Barcelona - Man Utd

I will continue with posting analyzes and tips during the summer, but certainly not on a regular base. Make e-mail subscription and get my picks directly in the mail box.

Last time, Ferguson tried to keep it tight and lost it pretty easily. Now, he says he’ll attack Barca. I expect something between, but certainly an open game. Guardiola will probably put Mascherano in central defence (to be shown a card is 2.30 at Paddy Power), idea is to protect from Chicharito’s speed. Then SAF could put Berbatov to get advantage in the air... I’ll stop on open game. First thought was to go on over 2.5 with very nice odds (currently 2.38 at 188bet), but it could be tricky if in the final scoreline at one moment is 1-1 where both sides could reduce a risk. In situation where United won’t be so defensive and Barca hopefully won’t have very bad day, I expect both sides to score.

A gamble would be Hernandez to score first. Mexican fella is star of the future (if not now) and I expect him to play an important role tonight.

Bet: Both to score
Odd: 2.05 Unibet
Stake: 8/10

Gamble: Hernandez to score 1st
Odd: 10.00 William Hill
Stake: 1/10 
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Premier League Betting

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Man Utd - Blackpool,

United at home have a fearful record of 17 wins of 18 games. Only failure was a draw vs. WBA when they conceded two funny goals after 2-0 (remember how much I was happy with my -2 bet at ht). However, Blackpool are not West Ham from few seasons ago and I cannot imagine any, for them positive scenario. Nice and easy home win. 3-0 correct result.

Bet: Man Utd -1
Odd: 1.84 Betsson
Stake: 8/10

Fulham - Arsenal

The Cottagers are in very good shape, Arsenal are in a free fall and can’t see a reason why that should change today. I feel these odds are set wrong and think there’s a value on backing home side. Have been thinking about the best bet and decided not to be greedy.

Bet: Fulham +0.25
Odd: 2.25 (Canbet)
Stake: 7/10

And two small gambles (out of the record).

1.Overs in all games (Man Utd, Spurs and Man City over 3). Last day, why not? It could pay me a holiday, odd is 838.43 at 188bet.

2.In case Arry didn’t joke about Europa League. Birmingham to win + Liverpool draw. Double at 22.75, also 188bet.

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Betting tip, Peterborough - MK Dons

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Going on the road today, no time for elaboration. Ten of ten.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.08 188bet
Stake: 10/10 
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Play-off betting, Cardiff - Reading

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Like the prospect of goals here and especially odds on it. Both sides are attacking minded (Cardiff at home) and those are fifth and third attacks in Championship. Cardiff’s style is different when they play at home which usually makes them more vulnerable at the back. Their matches against top scoring sides produced some goals, Norwich 3-1, Leeds 2-1, Reading 2-2 and Watford 3-1. Think Reading is more than able to hurt the hosts and I doubt that Dave Jones will change the style and set a cautious approach relying on his defence line. Counter attacks, Shane Long, Ian Harte free kicks, I’m sure Reading will be very dangerous. Additionally, Cardiff at home and Reading away have scored in 18 of their 23 games during the season. Also, only one game at Cardiff City Stadium ended with goalless draw.

Maybe not enough reasons, but as I said odd definitely worth a try. I will take over 2.25, with two goals half stake is back.

I’m refusing any thought to be involved in a City’s game tonight.

Bet: Over 2.25
Odd: 1.96 188bet
Stake: 8/10 
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Premier League betting - two picks

It's good reasoning as always, but quite frankly I'm lazy to type. 
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Liverpool - Tottenham
Bet: Liverpool -0.75
Odd: 1.95 Stan James
Stake: 8/10

Wigan - West Ham 
Bet: Wigan -0.5
Odd: 2.08 Pinnacle
Stake: 7/10 
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Premier League betting, Blackpool - Bolton

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Can’t really see how 2.00 (and still dropping) for the side that hasn’t won in last nine games could be a good deal. Saying that, I’ll exclude the reasoning like must win, don’t need... This really is do or die for the Seasiders, but that certainly doesn’t guarantee anything. Holloway changed their gung ho style, realizing that one point is always better than high scoring defeat. They have three draws in a row, but another draw (with a trip to Old Trafford in last round) would practically send them down. And chasing a win with a defence that has conceded 71 goals in 36 games could be very problematic.

Bolton had some very good runs of results during the season and look careless at 9th spot. They lost last three games in a row, also lost last four on the road (ten of eleven). They really look like they’re with one foot on the beach already, but this kind of games could wake the team from the lethargy.  Also, don’t think club’s board finds it the same if the Trotters finish 8th or 14th (four points margin). Coyle will be without midfielder Mark Davies.

Maybe it’s more instinct than facts, but I expect a goal fest. It’s too big stake for Blackpool even to keep minimal lead. On the other hand, big pressure could make them even more vulnerable. I’d predict goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.07 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10
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