MK Dons – Dag & Red

Dons made a good start of the season with a win on the road, against decent Walsall side (2-1). New boss, Karl Robinson, will have his debut in front the home fans. He’ll also have a task to make first home win after 5 months. He stated that financial benefits will be a strong reason to try to progress as far as possible. He’ll be without suspended defender Mat Doumbe, but important midfielder Peter Leven has served his ban and returns to the squad. Gary MacKenzie could have his debut. Dons won all three games against tonight’s opponent.

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Dagenham are newly promoted side and already showed that avoiding relegation will be a hard task. They lost at the opening day against Wednesday 0-2, but disturbing is they didn’t look even competitive and could have conceded few more without any threat in front Wed.’s goal. They’ll probably be less focused here as their main target is league games and to keep all players fit. Boss John Still will probably rest his top striker Paul Benson, who has been carrying an ankle injury. They noticed defeats in all three attempts to pass the first round.

 

Dons looked impressive in the first round. They play at home ground, new boss has debut in front the fans, he’ll put out a strong team and I think they won’t be lacking in motivation. Dons should win this comfortably.

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Bet: MK Dons -0.75ah

Odd: 1.98 bet365

Stake: 7/10

Southampton - Bournemouth

Differently from previous season when they were playing without too much pressure (thankfully to 10 points penalty) and making some very good results, in this one Saints are one of the two main contenders for a direct promotion. They’ve noticed a bad start (0-1 at home, Plymouth), missing a lot of chances to score. Top scorer, Rickie Lambert, will miss another game, but attacking midfielder, Adam Lallana (20 goals in all competitions, last season), will start. Also, tonight’s opponent is local rival, from the same league and there shouldn’t be any under estimation. As I posted, Saints rarely lose in this round.

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Bournemouth progressed to the third tier and they’ll surely have a tough season. They’ve made some big signings (big for League One) that should allow them to be competitive. However they lost at South London vs. Charlton (which was expected), but the failure in the first home game (another promotion contender - Peterborough) could bring a pressure and problems. The biggest problem in League Two campaign was a limited number of players and squad depth. Simply, I think they have more important things to think about. Also, Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row. Boss Eddie Howe has almost all squad available. Midfielder Hollands and striker Symes are not fully fit and they’ll take some part in the game, more likely than to start.

 

Saints need to bounce back to return the self confidence (before Plymouth, lost at home vs. Reading 2-4 in pre-season). I think St Mary's will be a hard place to go this season, expect a strong display from home side and few goals.

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Bet: Southampton -1 ah

Odd: 2.05 Bet365

Stake: 8/10

Carling Cup 10-11.08.

Here’s some interesting infos about games tonight. It could help if you already have some opinion. Otherwise, could be confusing. Enjoy.

My pick(s) will follow.

 

Plymouth have gone out in the first round in 15 of the last 17 years, including the last two.

Aldershot have lost their last four first-round ties in this competition.

Barnsley have not won a competitive home game since 16 March (v Nottingham Forest).

Rochdale have only qualified for the second round once in their last eight attempts. They have lost last five away matches, scoring just one goal.

Bradford have lost at this stage in each of the last four years. They are chasing a fourth successive home win.

Forest are unbeaten in seven matches against the Bradford (W5, D2).

Since returning to the Football League, Carlisle have only been knocked out of the League Cup in the first round once (against Burnley in 2005).

Huddersfield have lost their last three League Cup ties away from home.

Chesterfield have only won one of their last seven first-round ties in this tournament.

Boro have won only one of their last nine away games.

Derby have lost their opening League Cup game in five of the last seven seasons.

Since returning to the Football League in 2003, Doncaster have only failed to progress beyond the first round once (losing to Notts County in 2008).

Accrington have never won a League Cup tie away from home. This is Accrington's fifth season in the League Cup. They are aiming to reach the second round for the third time. Nottingham Forest (2006) and Walsall (2009) are the only clubs Stanley have knocked out of the competition in their history.

It is five months since the MK Dons last recorded a home victory: 3-1 against Swindon in League One on 9 March.

Dagenham & Redbridge are seeking a first-ever League Cup victory.(3 defeats,so far)

Rotherham have fallen at the first-round hurdle only once in nine years. They knocked out Sheffield Wednesday, Wolves and Southampton in reaching the fourth round in the season before last, and Derby in the first round last season.

Charlton have not won or scored in this competition for three years.

Southampton have only ever been eliminated in the first round of the competition twice (1961 and 2007).

Bournemouth have lost in the first round four seasons in a row.

Stockport have been knocked out in the first round of the League Cup in five of the last six years.

Wycombe have not managed to win a single match in the League Cup since their club record run in 2006/07 when they made the last four. The Chairboys have lost three of their last four League Cup matches by 4-0 margins, including the last two.

Saturday's results

Considering shocks yesterday, I should be satisfied these games. However, I could buy a house from a money that Scunthorpe have burnt in past 2 years.

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Reading - Scunthorpe 1-2  LOST

Sheffield Wednesday - Dag & Red 2-0 WON

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Statistics:

Yield: +2%

Profit: +0.32

See all bets

Sheff. Wed. - Dag & Red

Wednesday should be (beside Southampton) the main contender for winning the league. They’ve made some changes in the squad. Strikers Leon Clarke and Francis Jeffers and goalie Lee Grant left the club, but management brought some very quality replacements. Striker Mellor and midfielder Sedgwick from Preston, ex Coventry top striker Clinton Morrison and former Man City and England Under-21 goalkeeper Nicky Weaver. Boss Irvine came too late to clean all the mess that Laws left in the club, but this season Wednesday with players like Tudgay, Purse, O'Connor, Miller, Johnson (beside mentioned four) should be too much for the rest of the league. Also, important thing is they made an arrangement with bank about financial debt and won’t be forced to sell the best players. Only concern for today’s game is mentioned winger Jermaine Johnson who is battling to overcome a knee injury.

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After securing promotion to the third tier for the first time by winning last season's play-off final, Dagenham became the bookmakers' favorites for relegation. Manager John Still worked wonders in getting them up, but if he can keep them there it will be a real miracle. Team simply has a limited potential and with average home attendance that rarely get above 2.000, they’ll be hardly competitive on this level. Dagenham have some doubts over defenders Scott Doe and Abu Ogogo who picked up knocks in pre-season, while striker Paul Benson is expected to start.

 

Home side is a main contender for the top and they look even stronger than in previous season. It’s always risky to take handicap in the first round, but beside obvious class difference, importance of a good start and packed Hillsborough should guarantee a convincing win. 2-0, or 3-0 correct score.

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Pick: Sheff.Wed. -1ah

Stake: 8/10

Odd: 2.04 Pinnacle 

Reading - Scunthorpe

Reading have been significantly improving under Brian McDermott (in charge since last December). In pre-season, they defeated Wolves 2-1 and S’ton on the road 4-2 and raised self confidence. Squad’s quality should guarantee a fight for a play-off. Federici is, in my opinion, best goalie in the second tier. Sigurdsson scored a bunch (think 17) from midfield role, Simon Church and Shane Long have a future in Premier as well as few more players. McDermott worries about the fitness of some players. Ingimarsson, Kebe and Noel Hunt should be fit, Chris Armstrong is out.

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Scunny’s survival from previous season was a miracle, not surprise. But, problem is they lost attacking duo Paul Hayes (went to Preston) and their talisman Gary Hooper (Celtic) who were keeping them over the line. There’s still enough time to hire some players, but at this moment they’re contender number one to relegate. Their hope, as always, will be home turf Glanford Park. Last season, they collected only 15 points on the road of 23 games (16 defeats)! Skipper and right back Cliffe Byrne will probably miss this one, along with new loan signing Nolan.

 

Reading probably couldn’t wish a better rival for the season opener. Scunny will probably try to defend with all players waiting for set-pieces (as they were doing whole last season), but when they concede first the game will be over. I see a few goals margin.

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Bet: Reading -1ah

Stake: 8/10

Odd: 1.93 Pinnacle

It starts finally – English football 6-8.08.

First round in Championship will maybe bring a brighter picture about teams’ capabilities this season. Sure thing is, this campaign will be closer than usual. Certainly 10 clubs will compete for promotion. Public’s favorite is ‘Boro. They’ve brought 3 players from Old-firm (critics called them Scottish rejects) who should be a class above second tier. Adding on that a squad from previous season, ‘Boro really look like the most serious contender for a spot number 1. Personally, I dislike Strachan but if I have to choose I’d say Middlesbrough to win a league. Forest haven’t made any significant signing and I’m not sure can they make one step more from last season’s play-off. Burnley sold Steven Fletcher to Wolves for £6.5m which should allow them some new signings. Without Coyle as a manager they’re not the same, but possess enough quality for play-of at least. Hull are a mystery for me and their achievement depends from Jimmy Bullard’s idea where to play this season. Leicester should repeat (at least) last season success and finish in the play-off zone. This time with Sousa (ex-Swansea) as manager, instead Pearson (at Hull). Next contender is Reading. Strong finish of the previous season was extended with more than decent friendlies. They have enough potential for play-off, for sure. QPR as always spent a lot. This time, difference is Nigel Warnock (ex C.Palace) who should bring more than necessary level of discipline in the dressing room. That’s seven clubs for six places. Bristol City, Leeds, Portsmouth and Sheffield United will try to ruin their plans. Main contenders for relegation are Watford and good old Scunny (this time without Hooper and Hayes).

 

In League One, top rated sides are Sheffield Wednesday and Southampton. Wednesday have made few impressive signings, including last one - Clinton Morrison (Coventry). Southampton will be very strong again, but this time they’ll be feeling a huge pressure to get something (differently from previous season, after 10 points penalty). My third favorite is Huddersfield. They’ve invest a lot, but in previous seasons they didn’t have enough self-confidence and winning mentality. This season could be their. This three sides will decide a champion. For a play-off spot will compete relegated Plymouth and Peterborough, Brighton, Leyton and Charlton. Last mentioned team is, in my opinion, overrated and don’t expect too much from them. It won’t be less interesting at the bottom. Main contender for relegation should be Tranmere.

 

Choosing a winner in the first round is like a walking through the mine field, but think I have two for now. Analyzes will follow.

Premier League Top Scorer – Football Betting Odds and Tips

In terms of individual success, it’s every striker’s dream to become the Premier League’s Top Scorer. Let’s take a look at the betting odds and hopefully select some profitable football tips.

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Premier League Top Scorer

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The Barclays Golden Boot is awarded to the footballer who accumulates the most goals in any given league campaign. Previous winners include Alan Shearer, Michael Owen, Cristiano Ronaldo and four-time-winner Thierry Henry.

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Manchester United-striker Wayne Rooney heads the betting market at 9/2 along with World Cup-winner Fernando Torres. Liverpool-born Rooney notched up 26 goals in the league last season while Torres scored an impressive 18 league goals from just twenty-two appearances, but worryingly, both players failed to find the net in the World Cup Finals.

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Last year’s Premier League Top Scorer was Didier Drogba, who is available in the betting at 11/2. Now a two-time-winner of the Golden Boot, Drogba fired 29 goals from thirty-two appearances last season. Although temperamental, the 32-year-old Ivorian striker has fantastic awareness, control and chemistry with his teammates. Drogba is also an immense figure on the football field, to the point that he gives Chelsea a psychological advantage over the opposition. But, at odds of 11/2, I’m swerving the Chelsea striker. Any niggling injuries could see the ageing Drogba sidelined for sustained periods throughout the Premier League campaign.

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Arsenal forward Robin van Persie is next in the betting at 10/1. Despite being sidelined for most of the season, the Dutchman netted 9 times for The Gunners last term. He is more accustomed with assisting his teammates with scoring opportunities so for that reason alone he represents no value at the current odds. New Arsenal signing Marouane Chamakh will likely partner van Persie up front and the Morrocan, who netted 56 goals for Bordeaux, is priced at 33/1 to be leading scorer in this season’s Premier League.

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Big-spending Manchester City will likely start the league season with the strike partnership of Carlos Tevez and Emmanuel Adebayor. The Argentinian is priced at 12/1 while the former Arsenal striker is available at an eye-catching 25/1. City are likely to offload Welsh international Craig Bellamy, but if he remains at the City of Manchester Stadium, he is currently available at 50/1 to become the Premier League’s Top Scorer.

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Tottenham’s Jermaine Defoe is available at 18/1 in the betting. The England striker found the net 18 times in the league last season and should be be noted for the shortlist. Defoe’s club and international teammate Peter Crouch is priced at 40/1 while Russian frontman Roman Pavlyuchenko is 66/1. Out-of-favour striker Robbie Keane isn’t available in the betting but following extensive pre-season training, the Irishman looks in tip-top shape and could spring a surprise this season at large betting odds.

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Midfield maestro’s Frank Lampard, 25/1, Steven Gerrard 30/1, Cesc Fabregas 33/1 and Tim Cahill 80/1 will be popular with the betting public while Chelsea’s ticking time-bomb Nicolas Anelka 20/1 seems likely to be opposed following his foolish antics during this summer’s World Cup. Distressed Sunderland striker Darren Bent is available at 18/1 while the relaxed, yet sloppy Manchester United striker Dimitar Berbatov is priced at 40/1. Of the remaining footballers in the betting for the Premier League Top Scorer, Louis Saha 40/1, and Hugo Rodellega 66/1 both stand out as decent betting propositions.

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Betting Tip: Wayne Rooney 9/2

Frank Lampard scored 22 goals in the Premier League last season and at 25/1 he may represent a small bit of value against those at the head of the betting, but this year I expect more fireworks from Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney. Following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid, 24-year-old Rooney revelled in his more advanced role last season, notching up an impressive tally of 26 league goals. Once again he will be United’s highest goalscorer and as he continues his education higher up the pitch, I expect Wayne Rooney to be crowned Premier League Top Scorer.

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See all the odds.

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