Everton – Bolton

Everton are in a good run, in fact knowing Moyes’ work it should be a middle of a good run. Three wins and three draws in last six Premier games and all three draws came from the road (Fulham, Spurs and Blackpool). At Goodison, they’re a tough nut to crack for any (and it means any) Premiership side. The Toffees have lost only three of their last 22 Premier League matches and have won last four home games against Bolton without a conceding. Moyes will probably pick the same side from Blackpool’s draw, Rodwell and Fellaini should be on the bench.

Owen Coyle is doing a great job at Bolton with just two defeats in the past 11 rounds, there’s no doubt. And last round victory over Spurs was deserved without any doubt. My impression is his capability is limited with team’s. With players of that level is impossible to achieve anything higher than mid table position. If I try to find any bad side in his managing capability, it would be away games. The Trotters, as Burnley were doing under Coyle, most of the points collect at their Reebok Stadium. And I expect some kind of Spurs’ hangover in tonight’s game. After a great win, teams like Bolton usually fails in the next encounter. Coyle is without only long time sidelined Sean Davis, Joey O'Brien, Ricardo Gardner and Jlloyd Samuel.

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Everton exited the crisis of results and finally look like a serious team. Hard working side, well covered on all positions. I fancy them to continue their good run and win this encounter.

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Bet: Everton -1ah
Odd: 2.17 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

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Leicester – Sheff Utd

I’m definitely not a keen of Sven-Goran Eriksson admirer, but couldn’t deny he made a very good impact at Leicester. Still a big reputation, I guess. However since his arrival, City noticed one defeat (not unexpected one, away at Swansea 0-2), one draw and three consecutive wins (I don’t count Cup defeat with mixed squad). Leicester have a potential for play-off (top side of the table surely), Sousa’s departure was a good thing and I expect they’ll continue with the climbing on the table. Skipper, Matt Oakley, should be fit after a knee injury. Same applies for defender Miguel Vitor.

Well, Blades even before the start gave up from play-off ambitions. But their performances and latest results threat to push them into relegation battle, as United have just one point more from bottom placed Palace. They have three defeats in a row and just one win from last 8 league games (Hull away, 1-0)! Some excuses could be addressed on the injury list that contains six players, captain (and key defender) Chris Morgan, Nick Montgomery, Ryan France, Stephen Jordan, Lee Williamson and in my opinion the most important - striker Darius Henderson. But despite that, Gary Speed doesn’t seem as a good choice for a gaffer, their performances are usually terrible and I don’t see them higher than a bottom side of the table at the end.  

Leicester are a strong favorite here. Only thing that worries me is Eriksson’s defensive style that applied in all his clubs and even in English national team. On the other hand United are struggling to score lately and Walkers surely is not a good place for a shooting practice. I expect a home win with a clean sheet. 2-0.
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Bet: Leicester -0.75
Odd: 2.05 Victor Chandler
Stake: 8/10

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Weekend and statistic update

Fourth time I wished to bet on City's game this season and noticed fourth loss! Really great...

Bristol City - Preston 1-1  1/2 LOSS
Watford - Nottingham Forest 1-1  DRAW
Plymouth - Swindon 0-4  WON
WBA - Man City 0-2  LOSS

Statistic:

November
Profit: -5.6 units Yield: -14.36%

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Season
Profit: -33.46 units Yield: -8.25%

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WBA – Manchester City

Not in the mood to type. WBA are undefeated at home in five (!), in case of win they will climb to 4^th place, already defeated City at home this season (in Carling Cup 2-1) and surely won’t lack with self confidence. Important striker Odemwingie will probably pass fit for the game.

City are in the run of three consecutive defeats. Today’s game could be a good buy to Mancini and this game is make or break for them. In the last six they conceded 12 goals (all over 2.5). Defense doesn’t work as it should, but Tevez is back. Lots of attacking potential.

I don’t have a clue about possible winner, but we should see few goals here. Over for me.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.91 William Hill
Stake: 8/10

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Plymouth – Swindon

The Pilgrims are waking up in the League One. Two home wins in a row, against league giants Huddersfield (2-1) and in the midweek vs. Bristol Rovers (3-1). They’re creating plenty of goal chances lately and possess great attacking potential. Bradley Wright-Phillips is league top goal scorer, they have fast wing play and legendary striker Rory Fallon who is back after injury. However, defense with 25 conceded goals in 15 games looks far from being secure. Additional problem for the back line is missing of two players, defender Johnson and goalie Button. Midfielder Conor Clifford is Cup tied.

Swindon are just a shadow from a team from previous season and play-off ambitions look unrealistic at this moment. Team’s mascot and top goal scorer, Billy Painter, went to Leeds, but their major problem is (same as with Plymouth) too much conceded goals (27 in 15 games). Additional headache for boss Danny Wilson is he cannot count on three defenders. Frampton,  Jean-Francois  and Amankwaah are all out! Good news is winger, Matt Ritchie, got the permission from Portsmouth to play today. Wilson was storming out on older players, after midweek 0-3 home defeat against Charlton for lacking of effort and giving a bad example to the youngsters. There should be some positive reaction from them.

Two attacking minded sides with big problems in the defense lines. FA Cup (and money rewards) should be a nice motivation. I can give a small advantage to the home side, but see goals as a better option.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.80 bet365
Stake: 8/10

And probably one more pick, little later.

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Watford - Nottingham Forest

Despite they were already seen in the relegation battle before the start, the Hornerts made some great results that launched them in the top half of the table. Young players, combat spirit, attacking style with excellent leadership by Malky Mackay are Watford this season. However, they started to losing their breath lately. First Scunny took all three points from Vicarage Road, then they get trashed at Derby in the last round (1-4). Striker Danny Graham, should be fit, but defender Hodson and winger Cowie are sidelined. Watford have won only two of their last 11 home games against Forest.

Forest (as any team under Billy Davies) are well known “slow starters”. Differently from previous seasons, after run of draws they noticed two defeats on the road Barnsley 1-3 and Portsmouth 1-2 (and two wins at home though). Good excuse could be missing of attacking duo Tyson  – Earsnshaw. Both were on the bench in the last round, Earnshaw will start today’s game. They were second rated favorite for winning the Championship, nothing has changed in their potential and I expect them to make a winning streak very soon. No injury concerns for Davies.

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Watford had a surprising start which probably will make their mission easier to accomplish. But for me, they’re still relegation contender and expect their fall on the table. With Forest, situation is completely opposite. I cannot exclude a possibility of another draw, but see visitors as favorites here.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.19 188bet
Stake: 7/10

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Bristol City – Preston

As pre-season play-off contenders, the Robins started the season in a shocking manner collecting embarrassing 6 points in the first 11 rounds, conceding 22 goals in those! However, it seems they started finally with showing their potential as they’ve made a run of three games without a defeat. Home win over Reading, keeping QPR on a draw and spoiling Tony Mowbray’s debut at ‘Boro is a good starting point for the climbing on the table. Injured players, Ribeiro, Maynard and Vokes will have a fitness test, while midfielder Cole Skuse is returning to the squad. Bristol City have one defeat at home against Preston (in May 2000.) since 1927.

Differently from City, Preston are living their ambitions. They were tipped for promotion (or closely avoiding it) and their previous games go in that direction. Only 4 wins of 14 games with defense line that is leaking too much (30 conceding goals, the most in Championship and keeping just one clean sheet) should be a trend for a whole season. In my opinion, dad’s little son Darren, simply is not for this level of competition. His attacking style had some “moments of madness” in 6-4 victory at Leeds (after 1-4 at the half-time), or in a Cup game against Stockport (5-0), but any side that can hold them for a while (which means almost every in the second tier) will have a good chance to hurt them. Striker Jon Parkin is back after suspension, another striker Josh King got an injury, while third option in front Chris Brown will be out for five more weeks.

I’m more than satisfied with these odds for home side. City are boosted with away win at ‘Boro (as well as with good results in two games before that), definitely possess decent amount of quality and this should be a breaking point for them.

Bet: B.City -0.25
Odd: 1.90 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Monday's result and statistic update

I have an impression every game that I'm involved in has to produce some shocks. Two red cards in the first 30 minutes?! At least, bet is void not lost. All credits to WBA, didn't give up with nine players.

Statistic remains the same.

Blackpool - WBA 2-1 DRAW

Higlights

(In my opinion, WBA were robbed for both red cards.) 

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