FA Cup - 29.01.

Some interesting games in FA Cup. Post will be updating with new picks.

Burnley - Burton

Burnley are very strong home side (5th in Championship considering points at home) and probably they’ll be in chase for promotion (through play-off). New boss Eddie Howe, started to improve away record winning at Portsmouth (at the same beat terrible record against Pompey). This is first home game and he’ll probably try to keep the momentum.

Guys from Pirelli Stadium are fighting for their lives in League Two (58 places lower than Burnley) with probably the worst away record in English football (6 points of 9 games). They started to improve under new boss Peschisolido and in previous round shocked ‘Boro at home, but don’t think they’re even close to surprise here.

I’ll try with two bets. The Clarets are strong favourites in my opinion (despite it’s a Cup) and I expect at least two goals margin (with one, half stake is back). Other one is gamble in hoping players will continue to impress new boss. Pure instinct.  

Bet 1: Burnley -1.25
Odd: 1.74 Canbet
Stake: 8/10
 

Bet 2: Burnley -3ah
Odd: 5.75 bet365
Stake: 1/10
 

Watford - Brighton

Watford are the highest scorers in Championship with 52 goals(!) in 26 games and their last eight games (seven in league) went in over 2.5 (five were over 3.5). Last weekend’s defeat at Cardiff ended their run of seven consecutive wins (six in league)! Malky Mackay rotated players in previous round vs. Hartlepool and will probably do that again. Skipper Eustace is rated as doubtful and will probably be saved for the league.

Brighton are flying high in the League One and it seems they’re sure for direct promotion (six points more than 3rd Hudders and game in hand). They’re playing nice, passing game that usually produces goals. In 2011. (last six games), The Seagulls scored 15 times. They won five of the last six league and cup encounters, in previous round they eliminated Pompey and as Hornets they shouldn’t be lacking in confidence.

I guess both sides are hoping for progress. Wouldn’t dare to predict a winner, but I think we’ll be watching an entertaining game and goals on both sides.

Bet: Over 2.75
Odd: 2.04 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Bets for Tuesday

Portsmouth - Burnley

Pompey are struggling as usual with all kind of problems, skipper Mokoena and striker Dave Kitson will miss again, Hughes and Brown are again out because of “ongoing contract issues” and they’re in winless streak of seven competitive games (six in league). However, their recent performances and fighting spirit promise better days. They unlucky lost at Nott Forest, then stopped Leeds at home (without same those players). Portsmouth are undefeated in 10 league matches against Burnley and have won the last four against them.

The Clarets are middle table side and they probably won’t go anywhere from the league. They’re also poor travellers as they won on the road just once of twelve encounters (seven draws though). Defender Carlisle faces a late fitness test.

Only thing that bothers me is Pompey concede too much lately, at last five in league conceded 13 goals. Anyway, I think it’s the time for their win.
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Bet: Portsmouth 0.0
Odd: 1.88 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

 Sheffield Wednesday – Yeovil

Wednesday suffered an embarrassment at East London for the weekend. Players apologised to the fans, Irvine to the fans and Mandaric, Mandaric gave support to the manager. I think they’ll strongly bounce back tonight, or it will be end of Irvine. They still have very quality players for this division and Leyton smacked them right in the mouth. I expect a response and rage on the pitch.

And Yeovil... It’s simply Yeovil.

Bet: Sheff Wed -1ah
Odd: 2.21 Canbet
Stake: 7/10

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Bolton - Chelsea

Really amazing stats, here. Coyle has been trying to make a fortress from home ground as he did in Burnley and he’s doing pretty well as Bolton have suffered just one home defeat of 11 Premier games (Liverpool 0-1), stopped Man Utd and defeated Spurs scoring four. On the other hand, Chelsea have been a bogy team for the Trotters. Both at home and away, Bolton have only one win out of 20 games and that came after Terry’s own goal in the last minute.  Even more, they lost last seven at home to nil.

Chelsea have only three wins on the road of eleven games which is quite shocking and they’re winless away from home in six games (four defeats). I’m not sure am I closer to believe Chelsea will bounce back trashing someone with 4/5-0, or they’ll simply sink with Ancelotti and stars which time has passed.

Definitely I can’t make a case for a serious bet. But with these odds, backing home side is more tempting. Will try with a small gamble, Bolton/Bolton ht/ft at 11 (various bookies) looks interesting.

Bet: Bolton/Bolton
Odd: 11.00 Betfred
Stake: 0.5/10

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Leyton Orient – Sheff Wed

Leyton have a decent home record (five wins out of nine), but against top sides played only twice and both times lost (Charlton and Hudders). They’re just two points above the relegation zone and I can’t see them far from that at the end. They’ll be without defender Omozusi and midfielder Chambers.

The Owls have noticed just one win in last five league encounters, but seems the things started to improve for Wednesday. Financial problems should be solved with Mandaric as a new owner, club brought four players, while on the pitch team looks a way better. In last two games, they noticed two decent results. First away win at Cup vs. Bristol City, then in last round a draw at home against Charlton (came from 0-2). New striker Madine and defender Reynolds should have their debuts.

I like the price here. I’m sure Wednesday will finish in the top 6 and will start very soon to collect points. However, I can not overlook possibility of a draw. 

Bet: Sheff Wed 0.0
Odd: 1.89 Victor Chandler
Stake: 7/10

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Cardiff - Watford

Home side are promotion contender, currently two points behind rivals Swansea (with a game in hand). Pressure on Dave Jones is growing recently as they won only two of their last nine league games. He has signed on loan Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey and striker Jay Emmanuel-Thomas. Both will be available for the game. Bothroyd returned to training and will have some role today. Bellamy should start.  

Before the start Watford were one of my favourites for relegation (as ‘Boro were for promotion), but they’re currently holding 6th place and have noticed seven wins in a row (six in league), having scored the highest number of goals (50, two goals per game in average)! Malky Mackay also has strengthened his squad with signing winger Townsend and striker Weimann on loan. Despite skipper Eustace and midfielder Cowie are sidelined, I’m sure they won’t be lacking in self-confidence.

Cardiff should be favourite here, but I’m not sure does it worth at 2.00. Games between these two sides are usually high scoring affairs, last nine(!) ended with three or more goals and I’m going on over.

Bet: Over 2.5
Odd: 1.87 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Aston Villa - Man City

Villa are first above the relegation line with same points as Wigan. I think the market is overreacting on Bent’s arrival. First, he (probably) won’t start bagging the goals immediately. Second, I think he’s hardly overpaid and I’m not so sure it is a huge boost to the rest of the squad. The Villans have only one win of last 10 league games, haven’t kept the clean sheet in last 12 and defeated City just twice in 13 league games at Villa Park. Adding on that Gerard Houllier as manager, I wouldn’t be too optimistic. Good news is Ashley Young returns, bad (?) Heskey is suspended.

City are in a great shape with five wins and a draw (at Emirates) in last six Premier games. They also have superb record on the road with 21 points collected (just Arsenal have taken more). Whatever Mancini has been saying, I think Citizens are title contenders and failure in winning any silverware this season would bring an axe for him. Maybe that’s why he named a strong squad against Leicester in Cup game, but as long as Tevez is fit I don’t care too much about their available players. Silva or Johnson on the wing? Who really cares? Both are superb players. Mancini rested Barry, Dzeko, De Jong and Kolo Toure, all are back in contention. City have lost only twice against Villa of last 18 games, in all competitions, both at home and away (12 wins).

I think the price on City is simply too good to be refused. If they want the title they have to win games like this. Both of they away defeats came against mediocre teams (Wolves and Sunderland) and I hope they learnt the lesson.

Bet: Man City -0.25
Odd: 1.98 Canbet, 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Leeds - Arsenal

Leeds are really good in FA Cup recently, knocked Man Utd  at Trafford and played a draw at White Hart Lane last year, in this campaign resisted at Emirates (almost won, actually). Also, United will be confident as they’re undefeated at home in last seven and failed to score only once in last 15 games. The pressure is off (understandable) and Elland will be packed. No way I’ll be against them in these circumstances. Becchio  got some injury against Scunny and is rated as doubtful, but I’d be shocked if he doesn’t start (as I was shocked with Cattermole at Sunday, though).

Problem with Arsenal is they’re missing too many chances and if don’t score until 60th minute, become nervous. On the other hand if Gunners manage to score in first 15-20 mins, they will run the riot. Leeds kept them quiet in the first encounter, will they be able to do that again? No, I don’t believe in it. Arsenal have Wigan for the weekend and Ipswich for six days (after 0-1) and nobody could really assume the team that Wenger will name. Before the Emirates’ draw, Gunners noticed three consecutive wins over Leeds, scoring 13 goals in those. Arsenal haven’t been knocked in the third round in past 15 years.  

I won’t be involved in the final outcome, but high scoring game and away win is my expected scenario. Don’t think Leeds can keep it tight again and I’m sure they really believe in progress. On the other hand, Wenger knows here’s no reply. Goals would be my call.

Bet: Over 3
Odd: 2.06 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Sunderland - Newcastle

Sunderland are doing pretty well this season, they’re on unreal (for me, at least) 6th place and have lost only once at Stadium of Light (weird game vs. Blackpool 0-2). At home they have conceded the least number of goals in Premier (seven) and have kept clean sheets in five of their last seven league games. Three important players should return for the game. Defender Onuoha is sure, Cattermole is key man in the middle of the park and knowing his temper I have impression he’d play with one leg. Wellbeck should also take some role in the derby. At the previous game, they were humiliated with 1-5 trashing.

The Toon are also having a good season and Pardew’s era started with expected results. Wins against Liverpool, Wigan and West Ham, defeats vs. City and Spurs. Nothing much to say about them, my impression is management’s decision to sack Hughton was too harsh. We’ll see, but personally I don’t expect more than the middle of the table from Newcastle. Big problem for today is missing of Andy Carroll - top scorer with 11 goals, but they’ll also miss his defensive role at set-pieces. Midfielder Tiote is suspended.

I fancy Sunderland here. They seem to be a stronger side, are performing very well at home and should be too much for the Toon without Carroll. However, I’m taking some cover in case of a draw.

Bet: Sunderland -0.25
Odd: 1.82 Canbet
Stake: 8/10

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