Doncaster - Nottingham Forest

Donny like to think about themselves like the dark horses for the play-off, but in reality they’re just an average Championship side. Since they were promoted from third tier, they were 14^th and 12^th with almost same number of points at home and away. Nothing that can suggest their ambitions changed for this season. Decent start of the season, no home defeat so far (2 wins and 2 draws), but in my opinion it’s fair to say none of those 4 teams are cream of the league. Manager Sean O'Driscoll has some problems in defense line. Byron Webster could make his return after long-term absence, but Shelton Martis is out as well as Chambers and Thomas who remain sidelined.

Billy Davies’ slow start pattern continues in this season as well. As a manager of Derby, he noticed first win after 6-7 round, then started topping the table and reached Premier League. Last season in Forest was the same, except he didn’t get promotion. Same story this year, starting defeat at Burnley, then numberless draws and first win in 7^th round. There’s nothing that can make me thinking something is out of Davies’ plan. Almost same team from previous season, same ambitions and I can see them in play-off (at least) at the end. Before this game Davies accepted the role of underdogs(!) and was talking about bad sides of Forest’s recent displays, announced some changes in the team. No, I don’t believe in that. Only important missing is striker Rob Earnshaw, except him it’s a fully fit squad.

Only things that decrease my optimism about this encounter are tradition (that says only Forest’s victory at Doncaster was 1956) and the fact visitors would probably be satisfied with only a point here. But, I can’t see them losing this one and see this odd as a generous offer.

Bet: Nott Forest 0.0
Odd: 2.16 188bet
Stake: 8/10

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Thursday's results and statistic update

City were... Pathetic? Guess, I accept that harder than I should. September is red.
Not too much time for moaning, plenty of English football tomorrow.

Manchester City - Juventus  1-1  LOSS

Statistic:

September
Profit: -5.18 units Yield: -4.43%

Season
Profit: +20.18 units Yield: +8.72%

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Manchester City – Juventus

Citizens defeated Chelsea at Saturday, they’re still contenders for the Premier title and seem to have a good atmosphere, despite some rumors. However, Mancini’s team already exited from Carling Cup and one more failure would be extremely difficult to explain to the boss. I expect a strong line-up tonight (could it be weak?) and serious approach. Juve are a big challenge and players will be eager to prove themselves (once more) on a big scene. Recent defensive worries don’t look too serious anymore, as Micah Richards has recovered from injury and will take his place at right-back. Shaun Wright and Mario Balotelli will be sidelined, but their positions are far from being critical.

Juve made a bleak start in Serie a with just 7 points from 5 opening games. Fortunately, they’re still just 3 points far from the top. Their defense line looks more than shaky, as they conceded 3 against Doria 3-3, Lech 3-3, Palermo 1-3 and 2 vs. Cagliari 4-2. All of those were at home and at last one, new embarrassment was avoid thankfully to Krasic who scored a hat-trick. On the paper their squad looks very strong, but their performances don’t give too much faith they can challenge for a title. Serie a will certainly be a priority over Europe and important thing is Juve have Inter on the corner (away, at Sunday). Luigi Delneri will be without injured Amauri and Quagliarella who isn’t registered for EL. Also, there’s possibility to some players be rested.

Europa League is a chance for City to get some silverware this season. They won’t get a title in Premier and already failed in Carling. Mancini must impress the bosses every day, while players are best motivated against strongest sides which Juve definitely is. Visitors haven’t impressing, lately. Weak start could turn into disaster in case of failure at Milano, European second stage could be reached even with a defeat tonight. Home win.

Bet: Man City -1ah
Odd: 2.11  Canbet
Stake: 7/10


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dj

Tuesday's results and statistic update

Good night after all. I was so annoyed when Colchester turned the game from 0-1 to 2-1 and then conceded for a draw. Then I paid attention on the other results... Complete chaos! I wasn't even thinking about Cardiff and QPR, but plenty of shocking results. Leeds, Nott Forest, Bristol Rovers, Hudders, Rotheram, Peterborough... Last 3 weeks in England are real mine field. But... Most important thing. My September is green, finally!!! Yes!

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina  3-0  WON

Colchester - Dag & Red  2-2  LOST

Norwich - Leicester  4-3  WON

Statistic:

September
Profit: +1.82 units Yield: +1.65%

Season
Profit: +27.18 units Yield: +12.11%

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Norwich – Leicester

Despite the defeat in previous round (Hull at home, 0-2), Norwich have been noticing an encouraging start of the season. Sixth spot and play-off zone are something that guarantee they’ll be fully motivated (as long as Premiership dream lasts). Against Hull they were much better rival, but in last 10 minutes conceded twice and noticed very unlucky defeat. My assumption is they’ll be very eager to bounce back tonight. Midfielder Surman and defender Nelson are still out, while defenders Whitbread and Smith have returned to the full training.

Leicester’s current shape is at least embarrassing. Instead play-off spot, they’re keeping the bottom of the table with just 5 points of 8 games. On the road just a single point and goal difference 4-13, after they suffered real humiliation at Portsmouth (1-6). Sousa’s manager position isn’t stabile at all. Seems he couldn’t imply the system with tight defense that was successfully bringing results in Swansea. Oppositely, Leicester’s back line looks vulnerable, conceding large amounts lately. Chairman Mandaric has said he gives his full support to Sousa.  Usually, such statements mean opposite. Players possess enough quality for the top half of the table and certainly don’t enjoy when Portsmouth make a laugh of them. I’m sure Sousa’s departure is very close, maybe even tonight. Defender Miguel Vitor is suspended after red card.

 

Leicester won’t be relegated, that’s sure, but better results will come when they make a cut. Currently they look like a sinking boat. Hosts believe their Saturday’s defeat was a robbery, now are preparing a strong response.  

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Bet: Norwich -0.25 
Odd: 2.08  Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Colchester - Dag & Red

Colchester are very good League One side and they’re only League One side that still haven’t notice a defeat in the opening 8 rounds. They have five draws, but should be mentioned their tough schedule and playing against top league clubs (draws against Sheff Wed, Carlisle, Plymouth and S’ton and win over Rochdale). In previous round Colchester defeated Tranmere, scoring three times in the first half of hour, making it very comfortable. Two defenders, Pat Baldwin and Brian Wilson, will face a late fitness test.

After eight rounds, Daggers have collected only 6 points and it seems their adventure in the higher level will hardly last longer than a season. Just one point on the road in previous four games with goal difference 2-8.  If there’s any reason for the optimism, it’s last round draw at Charlton. However, I don’t really think they can play two away games on that level twice in four days. They’ll miss two defenders for tonight’s game, Will Antwi and Abu Ogogo.

 

After tough games, Colchester should feel relaxation to see Daggers on the other half of the pitch. Another 3 points should launch them to the top. Smell of Championship could be the strongest motivation. Home win, 2-0 correct score.

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Bet: Colchester -0.75
Odd: 1.97 Pinnacle
Stake: 8/10

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Spartak Moskva - MSK Zilina

Russians are contender for the second place in the group. Assuming no one will take too much from Chelsea, with away win at Marseille they already finished a big part of the job. Now, they need to confirm that points, every mistake would erase it. Spartak’s boss has been trying to remark the absence of few midfielders, but seems only Drincic’s is worth of notice.

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Despite recent progress of Slovakian football, I don’t rate Zilina too high. Can’t imagine them in the next round and most they could is to make some effort and win French for the third spot. They also have a big “imperfection” as they play offensive football regardless the opponent’s name.   So they did against Chelsea and conceded 4, instead 1 or 2. Now boss Hapal announced the same plan which, in my opinion, can only see them hurt. Spartak have some problems against highly defensive sides, but actually like when someone comes “for a win”.

 

Home side is strong favorite here and everything except a convincing win would be a first class surprise (for me, at least). However, I’m not ready to take any bigger handicap.

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Bet: Spartak -1
Odd: 1.88  bet365
Stake: 7/10

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Saturday's results and statistic update

Trend of weird results in England continues. I'm glad I didn't touch Charlton or Arsenal at very good odds. It's a pity Brum didn't convert some of the chances, but considering all shocks yesterday I accept minimal loss as a good day.

Leeds - Sheffield United  1-0  WON

Birmingham - Wigan  0-0  LOSS

Statistic:

September
Profit: -4.98 units Yield: -5.72%

Season
Profit: +20.38 units Yield: +10.11%

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